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Sovereign risk and procyclical fiscal policy in emerging market economies

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  • Yui Suzuki

Abstract

This study develops a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model to account for the differences in fiscal policy stance over the business cycle between developed and emerging market countries, and, in particular, for the volatile and procyclical government consumption and transfer payment in emerging market countries. Two models with and without default option in sovereign borrowings replicate the contrasting cyclical behaviors indicating that the default option is responsible for procyclical fiscal policy. Further, augmented model with third-party bailouts, together with the stochastic trend income process, successfully predicts high volatilities of fiscal expenditures. These imply that procyclical fiscal policy, entailed by default option, may exacerbate the business cycle in emerging market countries.

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  • Yui Suzuki, 2015. "Sovereign risk and procyclical fiscal policy in emerging market economies," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(2), pages 247-280, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:jitecd:v:24:y:2015:i:2:p:247-280
    DOI: 10.1080/09638199.2014.894112
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    3. Dung Xuan Nguyen & Trung Duc Nguyen, 2023. "The Relationship of Fiscal Policy and Economic Cycle: Is Vietnam Different?," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 16(5), pages 1-19, May.
    4. Navarat Temsumrit, 2020. "Does Democracy Affect Cyclical Fiscal Policy? Evidence From Developing Countries," PIER Discussion Papers 125, Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research.
    5. Nicolae-Bogdan Ianc & Camelia Turcu, 2019. "So alike, yet so different: comparing fiscal multipliers across E(M)U candidates," Working Papers 2019.03, International Network for Economic Research - INFER.

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