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Forecasting stock market volatility and the informational efficiency of the DAX-index options market

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Author Info
Holger Claessen
Stefan Mittnik
Abstract

Alternative strategies for predicting stock market volatility are examined. In out-of-sample forecasting experiments implied-volatility information, derived from contem poraneously observed option prices or history-based volatility predictors such as GARCH models, are investigated to determine if they are more appropriate for predicting future return volatility. Employing German DAX-index return data it is found that past returns do not contain useful information beyond the volatility expectations already reflected in option prices. This supports the efficient market hypothesis for the DAX index options market.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Taylor and Francis Journals in its journal The European Journal of Finance.

Volume (Year): 8 (2002)
Issue (Month): 3 (September)
Pages: 302-321
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Handle: RePEc:taf:eurjfi:v:8:y:2002:i:3:p:302-321

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Related research
Keywords: Market Efficiency; Implied Volatility; Garch; Combined Forecasting;

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Baillie, Richard T. & DeGennaro, Ramon P., 1990. "Stock Returns and Volatility," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(02), pages 203-214, June. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Kenneth D. West & Hali J. Edison & Dongchul Cho, 1993. "A utility based comparison of some models of exchange rate volatility," International Finance Discussion Papers 441, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  3. Robert F. Engle & Alex Kane & Jaesun Noh, 1993. "Index-Option Pricing with Stochastic Volatility and the Value of Accurate Variance Forecasts," NBER Working Papers 4519, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Scott, Elton & Tucker, Alan L., 1989. "Predicting currency return volatility," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(6), pages 839-851, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Schwert, G William, 1989. " Why Does Stock Market Volatility Change over Time?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 44(5), pages 1115-53, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Hull, John C & White, Alan D, 1987. " The Pricing of Options on Assets with Stochastic Volatilities," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 42(2), pages 281-300, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Lamoureux, Christopher G & Lastrapes, William D, 1993. "Forecasting Stock-Return Variance: Toward an Understanding of Stochastic Implied Volatilities," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(2), pages 293-326. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Shastri, Kuldeep & Tandon, Kishore, 1986. "An Empirical Test of a Valuation Model for American Options on Futures Contracts," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(04), pages 377-392, December. [Downloadable!]
  10. Schwert, G William & Seguin, Paul J, 1990. " Heteroskedasticity in Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(4), pages 1129-55, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Chiras, Donald P. & Manaster, Steven, 1978. "The information content of option prices and a test of market efficiency," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(2-3), pages 213-234. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Jaesun Noh & Robert F. Engle & Alex Kane, 1994. "Forecasting Volatility and Option Prices of the S&P 500 Index," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series 93-32r, Department of Economics, UC San Diego. [Downloadable!]
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Markus Haas & Stefan Mittnik & Bruce Mizrach, 2005. "Assessing Central Bank Credibility During the ERM Crises: Comparing Option and Spot Market-Based Forecasts," CFS Working Paper Series 2005/09, Center for Financial Studies. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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