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Estimating the equity premium

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Author Info
M. C. Freeman, I. R. Davidson
Abstract

Accurate estimation of the equity premium (the expected difference between the returns to a well-diversified stock market portfolio and a riskfree asset) is of central importance in many applications of finance theory including project appraisal and portfolio selection. The standard approach is to take the average observed excess returns to the market over some recent time period (sometimes referred to as the ex post equity premium) and apply this as an unbiased estimate of the ex ante equity premium. The paper reviews the problems associated with such an approach and contrasts it with alternative theoretical techniques.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Taylor and Francis Journals in its journal The European Journal of Finance.

Volume (Year): 5 (1999)
Issue (Month): 3 (September)
Pages: 236-246
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Handle: RePEc:taf:eurjfi:v:5:y:1999:i:3:p:236-246

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Related research
Keywords: Equity Premium Puzzle; Riskfree Rate Puzzle; Capm; Portfolio Theory;

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Attanasio, Orazio & Davis, Steven J, 1996. "Relative Wage Movements and the Distribution of Consumption," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(6), pages 1227-62, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Merton, Robert C, 1973. "An Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(5), pages 867-87, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Abel, Andrew B, 1994. "Exact Solutions for Expected Rates of Return under Markov Regime Switching: Implications for the Equity Premium Puzzle," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 26(3), pages 345-61, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Kocherlakota, Narayana R, 1990. " Disentangling the Coefficient of Relative Risk Aversion from the Elasticity of Intertemporal Substitution: An Irrelevance Result," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(1), pages 175-90, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Abel, A.B., 1990. "Asset Prices Under Habit Formation And Catching Up With The Joneses," Weiss Center Working Papers 1-90, Wharton School - Weiss Center for International Financial Research.
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  6. Weil, Philippe, 1994. "Nontraded assets and the CAPM," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(3-4), pages 913-922, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Mehra, Rajnish & Prescott, Edward C., 1988. "The equity risk premium: A solution?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 133-136, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Heaton, John & Lucas, Deborah, 1995. "The importance of investor heterogeneity and financial market imperfections for the behavior of asset prices," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 1-32, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Weil, Philippe, 1989. "The equity premium puzzle and the risk-free rate puzzle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 401-421, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1978. "Asset Prices in an Exchange Economy," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1429-45, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Nelson, J.A., 1993. "On Testing for Full Insurance Using Consumer Expenditures Survey Data," Papers 93-02, California Davis - Institute of Governmental Affairs.
  13. Epstein, Larry G. & Zin, Stanley E., 1990. "'First-order' risk aversion and the equity premium puzzle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 387-407, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Cochrane, John H, 1991. "A Simple Test of Consumption Insurance," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(5), pages 957-76, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Narayana R. Kocherlakota, 1996. "The Equity Premium: It's Still a Puzzle," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(1), pages 42-71, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Mace, Barbara J, 1991. "Full Insurance in the Presence of Aggregate Uncertainty," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(5), pages 928-56, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Mankiw, N. Gregory & Zeldes, Stephen P., 1991. "The consumption of stockholders and nonstockholders," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 97-112, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  18. Heaton, John & Lucas, Deborah J, 1996. "Evaluating the Effects of Incomplete Markets on Risk Sharing and Asset Pricing," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(3), pages 443-87, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  19. Ian Davidson & John Okunev & M. Tahir, 1996. "Modelling the Equity Risk Premium in the Long Term," Working Paper Series 59, School of Finance and Economics, University of Technology, Sydney. [Downloadable!]
  20. Heaton, John & Lucas, Deborah, 1992. "The effects of incomplete insurance markets and trading costs in a consumption-based asset pricing model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 16(3-4), pages 601-620. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  21. Mehra, Rajnish & Prescott, Edward C., 1985. "The equity premium: A puzzle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 145-161, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  22. Heaton, John, 1995. "An Empirical Investigation of Asset Pricing with Temporally Dependent Preference Specifications," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 63(3), pages 681-717, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  23. Constantinides, George M, 1982. "Intertemporal Asset Pricing with Heterogeneous Consumers and without Demand Aggregation," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 55(2), pages 253-67, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  24. Cecchetti, Stephen G. & Lam, Pok-sang & Mark, Nelson C., 1993. "The equity premium and the risk-free rate : Matching the moments," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 21-45, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  25. Roll, Richard, 1977. "A critique of the asset pricing theory's tests Part I: On past and potential testability of the theory," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 129-176, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  26. Mankiw, N. Gregory, 1986. "The equity premium and the concentration of aggregate shocks," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 211-219, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  27. Weil, P., 1991. "Equilibrium Asset Prices with Undiversifiable Labor Income Risk," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1564, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
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  28. Constantinides, George M, 1990. "Habit Formation: A Resolution of the Equity Premium Puzzle," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(3), pages 519-43, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. David Schröder, 2005. "The Implied Equity Risk Premium - An Evaluation of Empirical Methods," Bonn Econ Discussion Papers bgse13_2005, University of Bonn, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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