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Estimating the equity premium

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  • M. C. Freeman
  • I. R. Davidson
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    Abstract

    Accurate estimation of the equity premium (the expected difference between the returns to a well-diversified stock market portfolio and a riskfree asset) is of central importance in many applications of finance theory including project appraisal and portfolio selection. The standard approach is to take the average observed excess returns to the market over some recent time period (sometimes referred to as the ex post equity premium) and apply this as an unbiased estimate of the ex ante equity premium. The paper reviews the problems associated with such an approach and contrasts it with alternative theoretical techniques.

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    File URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/135184799337073
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal The European Journal of Finance.

    Volume (Year): 5 (1999)
    Issue (Month): 3 ()
    Pages: 236-246

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    Handle: RePEc:taf:eurjfi:v:5:y:1999:i:3:p:236-246

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    Web page: http://www.tandfonline.com/REJF20

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    Related research

    Keywords: Equity Premium Puzzle; Riskfree Rate Puzzle; Capm; Portfolio Theory;

    References

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    1. Attanasio, Orazio & Davis, Steven J, 1996. "Relative Wage Movements and the Distribution of Consumption," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(6), pages 1227-62, December.
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    3. Andrew B. Abel, . "Exact Solutions for Expected Rates of Return Under Markov Regime Switching: Implications for the Equity Premium Puzzle," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 09-92, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
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    6. S.G. Cecchetti & P. Lam & N.C. Mark, 2010. "The equity premium and the risk-free rate: matching the moments," Levine's Working Paper Archive 1396, David K. Levine.
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    8. Mehra, Rajnish & Prescott, Edward C., 1988. "The equity risk premium: A solution?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 133-136, July.
    9. Narayana R. Kocherlakota, 1995. "The equity premium: it's still a puzzle," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 102, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
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    20. Weil, P., 1991. "Equilibrium Asset Prices with Undiversifiable Labor Income Risk," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1564, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
    21. Heaton, John & Lucas, Deborah J, 1996. "Evaluating the Effects of Incomplete Markets on Risk Sharing and Asset Pricing," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(3), pages 443-87, June.
    22. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1978. "Asset Prices in an Exchange Economy," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1429-45, November.
    23. Kocherlakota, Narayana R, 1990. " Disentangling the Coefficient of Relative Risk Aversion from the Elasticity of Intertemporal Substitution: An Irrelevance Result," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(1), pages 175-90, March.
    24. Heaton, John & Lucas, Deborah, 1992. "The effects of incomplete insurance markets and trading costs in a consumption-based asset pricing model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 16(3-4), pages 601-620.
    25. Ian Davidson & John Okunev & M. Tahir, 1996. "Modelling the Equity Risk Premium in the Long Term," Working Paper Series 59, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
    26. Roll, Richard, 1977. "A critique of the asset pricing theory's tests Part I: On past and potential testability of the theory," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 129-176, March.
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    Cited by:
    1. David Schröder, 2005. "The Implied Equity Risk Premium - An Evaluation of Empirical Methods," Bonn Econ Discussion Papers bgse13_2005, University of Bonn, Germany.

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