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Anomalies: The Equity Premium Puzzle

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  • Siegel, Jeremy J
  • Thaler, Richard H

Abstract

The equity premium is the difference in returns between equities and fixed income securities, such as Treasury bills. The puzzle refers to the fact that the premium has historically been very large--about 6 percent per year--too large to be easily explained by risk aversion. The authors document the evidence for the puzzle and find that is exists in many countries, over long time periods, and does not seem to be explained by survivorship bias. They also summarize several theoretical explanations. The authors conclude that it is difficult to explain the equity premium without incorporating some kind of irrationality. Copyright 1997 by American Economic Association.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by American Economic Association in its journal Journal of Economic Perspectives.

Volume (Year): 11 (1997)
Issue (Month): 1 (Winter)
Pages: 191-200
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Handle: RePEc:aea:jecper:v:11:y:1997:i:1:p:191-200

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. R. Mehra & E. Prescott, 2010. "The equity premium: a puzzle," Levine's Working Paper Archive 1401, David K. Levine.
  2. Rietz, Thomas A., 1988. "The equity risk premium a solution," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 117-131, July.
  3. Andrew B. Abel, 1991. "The equity premium puzzle," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Sep, pages 3-14.
  4. Abel, A.B., 1990. "Asset Prices Under Habit Formation And Catching Up With The Joneses," Weiss Center Working Papers 1-90, Wharton School - Weiss Center for International Financial Research.
  5. Kandel, Shmuel & Stambaugh, Robert F., 1991. "Asset returns and intertemporal preferences," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 39-71, February.
  6. Mehra, Rajnish & Prescott, Edward C., 1988. "The equity risk premium: A solution?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 133-136, July.
  7. Benartzi, Shlomo & Thaler, Richard H, 1995. "Myopic Loss Aversion and the Equity Premium Puzzle," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 110(1), pages 73-92, February.
  8. Weil, Philippe, 1989. "The equity premium puzzle and the risk-free rate puzzle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 401-421, November.
  9. Mankiw, N.G. & Zeldes, S.P., 1990. "The Consumption Of Stockholders And Non-Stockholders," Weiss Center Working Papers 23-90, Wharton School - Weiss Center for International Financial Research.
  10. Epstein, Larry G & Zin, Stanley E, 1989. "Substitution, Risk Aversion, and the Temporal Behavior of Consumption and Asset Returns: A Theoretical Framework," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(4), pages 937-69, July.
  11. Narayana R. Kocherlakota, 1996. "The Equity Premium: It's Still a Puzzle," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(1), pages 42-71, March.
  12. John Y. Campbell & John H. Cochrane, 1994. "By Force of Habit: A Consumption-Based Explanation of Aggregate Stock Market Behavior," CRSP working papers 412, Center for Research in Security Prices, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago.
  13. John Y. Campbell, 1996. "Consumption and the Stock Market: Interpreting International Experience," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1763, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
  14. Tversky, Amos & Kahneman, Daniel, 1992. " Advances in Prospect Theory: Cumulative Representation of Uncertainty," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 5(4), pages 297-323, October.
  15. Poterba, James M. & Summers, Lawrence H., 1988. "Mean reversion in stock prices : Evidence and Implications," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 27-59, October.
  16. Fama, Eugene F, 1991. " Efficient Capital Markets: II," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(5), pages 1575-617, December.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Lindbeck, A. & Persson, M., 2000. "What are the Gains from Pension Reform?," Research Institute of Industrial Economics Working Papers 535, Research Institute of Industrial Economics (IFN).
  2. Ågren, Martin, 2005. "Myopic Loss Aversion, the Equity Premium Puzzle, and GARCH," Working Paper Series 2005:11, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
  3. Fielding, David & Stracca, Livio, 2007. "Myopic loss aversion, disappointment aversion, and the equity premium puzzle," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 250-268, October.
  4. Marco Taboga, 2002. "The Realized Equity Premium has been Higher than Expected: Further Evidence," CeRP Working Papers 29, Center for Research on Pensions and Welfare Policies, Turin (Italy).
  5. Kristoffer Eriksen & Ola Kvaløy, 2010. "Do financial advisors exhibit myopic loss aversion?," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer, vol. 24(2), pages 159-170, June.
  6. Glen Donaldson & Mark Kamstra & Lisa Kramer, 2003. "Stare down the barrel and center the crosshairs: Targeting the ex ante equity premium," Working Paper 2003-4, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  7. Repullo, Rafael & Suarez, Javier, 2004. "Loan pricing under Basel capital requirements," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 496-521, October.
  8. Wolfgang Bessler, 1999. "Equity returns, bond returns, and the equity premium in the German capital market," European Journal of Finance, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 5(3), pages 186-201.
  9. Pope, Rulon D. & LaFrance, Jeffrey T & Just, Richard E., 2007. "Agricultural Arbitrage and Risk Preferences," Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley, Working Paper Series qt3tw1m1p0, Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley.
  10. Hans Joachim Voth, 2000. "With a bang, not a whimper: Pricking Germany's "stock market bubble" in 1927 and the slide into depression," Economics Working Papers 516, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
  11. Strauss, Jason, 2007. "Return-of-Premium Endorsements for Living-Benefits Insurance Policies: Rational or Irrational?," MPRA Paper 11103, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  12. Marco Taboga, 2004. "The equity premium in the long-run," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 14(9), pages 645-650.
  13. Christophe Boucher, 2003. "Stock Market Valuation : the Role of the Macroeconomic Risk Premium," Finance 0305011, EconWPA.
  14. Bruno Frey, 1997. "Art Markets and Economics: Introduction," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer, vol. 21(3), pages 165-173, September.
  15. Peter Christoffersen & Kris Jacobs & Chayawat Ornthanalai, 2009. "Exploring Time-Varying Jump Intensities: Evidence from S&P500 Returns and Options," CIRANO Working Papers 2009s-34, CIRANO.
  16. Selda (Ying Fang) Kao & K. Vela Velupillai, 2011. "Behavioural Economics: Classical and Modern," ASSRU Discussion Papers 1126, ASSRU - Algorithmic Social Science Research Unit.

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