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Anomalies: The Equity Premium Puzzle

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Author Info
Siegel, Jeremy J
Thaler, Richard H

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Abstract

The equity premium is the difference in returns between equities and fixed income securities, such as Treasury bills. The puzzle refers to the fact that the premium has historically been very large--about 6 percent per year--too large to be easily explained by risk aversion. The authors document the evidence for the puzzle and find that is exists in many countries, over long time periods, and does not seem to be explained by survivorship bias. They also summarize several theoretical explanations. The authors conclude that it is difficult to explain the equity premium without incorporating some kind of irrationality. Copyright 1997 by American Economic Association.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by American Economic Association in its journal Journal of Economic Perspectives.

Volume (Year): 11 (1997)
Issue (Month): 1 (Winter)
Pages: 191-200
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Handle: RePEc:aea:jecper:v:11:y:1997:i:1:p:191-200

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. John Y. Campbell, 1996. "Consumption and the Stock Market: Interpreting International Experience," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1763, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
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  2. Tversky, Amos & Kahneman, Daniel, 1992. " Advances in Prospect Theory: Cumulative Representation of Uncertainty," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 5(4), pages 297-323, October.
  3. Rietz, Thomas A., 1988. "The equity risk premium a solution," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 117-131, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. N. Gregory Mankiw & Stephen P. Zeldes, 1991. "The Consumption of Stockholders and Non-Stockholders," NBER Working Papers 3402, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Abel, A.B., 1990. "Asset Prices Under Habit Formation And Catching Up With The Joneses," Weiss Center Working Papers 1-90, Wharton School - Weiss Center for International Financial Research.
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  6. John Y. Campbell & John H. Cochrane, 1995. "By Force of Habit: A Consumption-Based Explanation of Aggregate Stock Market Behavior," NBER Working Papers 4995, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Kandel, Shmuel & Stambaugh, Robert F., 1991. "Asset returns and intertemporal preferences," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 39-71, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Mehra, Rajnish & Prescott, Edward C., 1985. "The equity premium: A puzzle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 145-161, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Mehra, Rajnish & Prescott, Edward C., 1988. "The equity risk premium: A solution?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 133-136, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Poterba, James M. & Summers, Lawrence H., 1988. "Mean reversion in stock prices : Evidence and Implications," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 27-59, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Benartzi, Shlomo & Thaler, Richard H, 1995. "Myopic Loss Aversion and the Equity Premium Puzzle," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 110(1), pages 73-92, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Weil, Philippe, 1989. "The equity premium puzzle and the risk-free rate puzzle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 401-421, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Epstein, Larry G & Zin, Stanley E, 1989. "Substitution, Risk Aversion, and the Temporal Behavior of Consumption and Asset Returns: A Theoretical Framework," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(4), pages 937-69, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Narayana R. Kocherlakota, 1996. "The Equity Premium: It's Still a Puzzle," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(1), pages 42-71, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Fama, Eugene F, 1991. " Efficient Capital Markets: II," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(5), pages 1575-617, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Lindbeck, Assar & Persson, Mats, 2000. "What Are the Gains from Pension Reform?," Working Paper Series 535, Research Institute of Industrial Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Ågren, Martin, 2005. "Myopic Loss Aversion, the Equity Premium Puzzle, and GARCH," Working Paper Series 2005:11, Uppsala University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  3. Glen Donaldson & Mark Kamstra & Lisa Kramer, 2003. "Stare down the barrel and center the crosshairs: Targeting the ex ante equity premium," Working Paper 2003-4, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. [Downloadable!]
  4. Repullo, Rafael & Suarez, Javier, 2003. "Loan Pricing Under Basel Capital Requirements," CEPR Discussion Papers 3917, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Bruno Frey, 1997. "Art Markets and Economics: Introduction," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer, vol. 21(3), pages 165-173, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Jeffrey LaFrance & Rulon Pope & Richard Just, 2008. "Agricultural Arbitrage and Risk Preferences," Working Papers 2009-01, School of Economic Sciences, Washington State University. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Michael Brennan & Yihong Xia, 1997. "Stock Price Volatility, Learning, and the Equity Premium," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management 1131, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA. [Downloadable!]
  8. Wolfgang Bessler, 1999. "Equity returns, bond returns, and the equity premium in the German capital market," European Journal of Finance, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 5(3), pages 186-201, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Strauss, Jason, 2007. "Return-of-Premium Endorsements for Living-Benefits Insurance Policies: Rational or Irrational?," MPRA Paper 11103, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  10. Christopher J. Neely, 1997. "Technical analysis in the foreign exchange market: a layman's guide," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Sep, pages 23-38. [Downloadable!]
  11. Marco Taboga, 2004. "The equity premium in the long-run," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 14(9), pages 645-650, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Marco Taboga, 2002. "The realized equity premium has been higher than expected: further evidence," Finance 0210004, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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  13. Livio Stracca & David Fielding, 2003. "Myopic loss aversion; disappointment aversion; and the equity premium puzzle," Working Paper Series 203, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  14. Christophe Boucher, 2003. "Stock Market Valuation : the Role of the Macroeconomic Risk Premium," Finance 0305011, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  15. Voth, Hans-Joachim, 2002. "With a Bang, Not a Whimper: Pricking Germany's 'Stock Market Bubble' in 1927 and the Slide into Depression," CEPR Discussion Papers 3257, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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