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Community preferences, insurgency, and the success of reconstruction spending

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  • Travers B. Child
  • David Scoones

Abstract

Existing theory on counterinsurgency does not adequately explain persistent insurrection in face of the reconstruction work currently underway in Afghanistan and Iraq. We starkly depart from the literature by developing a simple model of reconstruction allowing misalignment of occupier spending with community preferences. Insurgency arises endogenously as a result of the mix of spending rather than its level. Occupier insistence on its preferred path of reconstruction may lead to fewer projects of any kind being completed. In equilibrium, the occupier may accept an endogenous insurgency to achieve a preferred project mix, or be constrained in its choice even when no insurgency occurs.

Suggested Citation

  • Travers B. Child & David Scoones, 2017. "Community preferences, insurgency, and the success of reconstruction spending," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(1), pages 34-52, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:28:y:2017:i:1:p:34-52
    DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2015.1050802
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    1. Scoones David, 2013. "Winning Hearts and Minds: Public Good Provision in the Shadow of Insurgency," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 19(1), pages 17-31, April.
    2. Zürcher, Christoph, 2017. "What Do We (Not) Know About Development Aid and Violence? A Systematic Review," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 506-522.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • H56 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - National Security and War
    • O38 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Government Policy
    • N4 - Economic History - - Government, War, Law, International Relations, and Regulation

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