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Conditional Cash Transfers, Civil Conflict and Insurgent Influence: Experimental Evidence from the Philippines

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  • Benjamin Crost

    ()
    (University of Colorado Denver)

  • Joseph H. Felter

    ()
    (Stanford University)

  • Patrick B. Johnston

    (RAND Corporation)

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    Abstract

    Conditional cash transfer (CCT) programs are an increasingly popular tool for reducing poverty in conflict-affected areas. Despite their growing popularity, there is limited evidence on how CCT programs affect conflict and theoretical predictions are ambiguous. We estimate the effect of conditional cash transfers on civil conflict in the Philippines by exploiting an experiment that randomly assigned eligibility for a CCT program at the village level. We find that cash transfers caused a substantial decrease in conflict-related incidents in treatment villages relative to control villages. Using unique data on local insurgent influence, we also find that the program significantly reduced insurgent influence in treated villages.

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    File URL: http://www.hicn.org/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2012/06/HiCN-WP-174.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Households in Conflict Network in its series HiCN Working Papers with number 174.

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    Length: 31 pages
    Date of creation: Apr 2014
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:hic:wpaper:174

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    Web page: http://www.hicn.org

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    1. Alberto Abadie & Javier Gardeazabal, 2003. "The Economic Costs of Conflict: A Case Study of the Basque Country," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 113-132, March.
    2. Marco Manacorda & Edward Miguel & Andrea Vigorito, 2009. "Government Transfers and Political Support," NBER Working Papers 14702, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Chioda, Laura & de Mello, João M. P. & Soares, Rodrigo R., 2012. "Spillovers from Conditional Cash Transfer Programs: Bolsa Família and Crime in Urban Brazil," IZA Discussion Papers 6371, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    4. Ariel Fiszbein & Norbert Schady & Francisco H. G. Ferreira & Margaret Grosh & Niall Keleher & Pedro Olinto & Emmanuel Skoufias, 2009. "Conditional Cash Transfers : Reducing Present and Future Poverty," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 2597, July.
    5. Grossman, Herschel I, 1991. "A General Equilibrium Model of Insurrections," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(4), pages 912-21, September.
    6. Edward Miguel & Michael Kremer, 2004. "Worms: Identifying Impacts on Education and Health in the Presence of Treatment Externalities," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 72(1), pages 159-217, 01.
    7. Arulpragasam, Jehan & Fernandez, Luisa & Matsuda, Yasuhiko & Olfindo, Rosechin & Stephens, Matt, 2011. "Building governance and anti-corruption in the Philippines'conditional cash transfer program," Social Protection Discussion Papers 60234, The World Bank.
    8. Edward Miguel & Shanker Satyanath & Ernest Sergenti, 2004. "Economic Shocks and Civil Conflict: An Instrumental Variables Approach," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(4), pages 725-753, August.
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