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Fundamentals or trends? A long-term perspective on house prices

Author

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  • Piet Eichholtz
  • Ronald Huisman
  • Remco C. J. Zwinkels

Abstract

Using a long-term time series covering 350 years of house prices along the Herengracht in Amsterdam, we examine whether a fundamental factor or a trend explains house prices and whether their explanatory power is time varying. We find that agents in the housing market switch in their formation of expectations about future changes in house prices between fundamental and momentum strategies. Specifically, we show that agents base their expectations more on fundamentals during economic slowdowns and more on recent trends or momentum during economic booms.

Suggested Citation

  • Piet Eichholtz & Ronald Huisman & Remco C. J. Zwinkels, 2015. "Fundamentals or trends? A long-term perspective on house prices," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(10), pages 1050-1059, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:47:y:2015:i:10:p:1050-1059
    DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2014.987919
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Brent W. Ambrose & Piet Eichholtz & Thies Lindenthal, 2013. "House Prices and Fundamentals: 355 Years of Evidence," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(2-3), pages 477-491, March.
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    8. repec:mcb:jmoncb:v:45:y:2013:i::p:477-491 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Angela Black & Patricia Fraser & Martin Hoesli, 2006. "House Prices, Fundamentals and Bubbles," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(9‐10), pages 1535-1555, November.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Bao, Te & Hommes, Cars, 2019. "When speculators meet suppliers: Positive versus negative feedback in experimental housing markets," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 1-1.
    3. Martin, Carolin & Schmitt, Noemi & Westerhoff, Frank, 2022. "Housing Markets, Expectation Formation And Interest Rates," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 26(2), pages 491-532, March.
    4. Bolt, Wilko & Demertzis, Maria & Diks, Cees & Hommes, Cars & Leij, Marco van der, 2019. "Identifying booms and busts in house prices under heterogeneous expectations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 234-259.
    5. Dieci, Roberto & Schmitt, Noemi & Westerhoff, Frank, 2018. "Interactions between stock, bond and housing markets," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 43-70.
    6. Martin Carolin & Westerhoff Frank, 2019. "Regulating Speculative Housing Markets via Public Housing Construction Programs: Insights from a Heterogeneous Agent Model," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 239(4), pages 627-660, August.
    7. Dieci, Roberto & Westerhoff, Frank, 2016. "Heterogeneous expectations, boom-bust housing cycles, and supply conditions: A nonlinear economic dynamics approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 21-44.
    8. Hommes, Cars & Vroegop, Joris, 2019. "Contagion between asset markets: A two market heterogeneous agents model with destabilising spillover effects," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 314-333.
    9. Noemi Schmitt & Frank Westerhoff, 2022. "Speculative housing markets and rent control: insights from nonlinear economic dynamics," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 17(1), pages 141-163, January.
    10. Tolga A. Ozbakan & Serdar Kale & Irem Dikmen, 2019. "Exploring House Price Dynamics: An Agent-Based Simulation with Behavioral Heterogeneity," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 54(2), pages 783-807, August.
    11. Zhentao Shi & Huanhuan Zheng, 2018. "Structural estimation of behavioral heterogeneity," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(5), pages 690-707, August.
    12. Gürer Karagedikli & Ali Coşkun Tunçer, 2021. "House prices in the Ottoman Empire: evidence from eighteenth‐century Edirne," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 74(1), pages 6-33, February.
    13. Wai-Mun Chia & Mengling Li & Huanhuan Zheng, 2017. "Behavioral heterogeneity in the Australian housing market," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(9), pages 872-885, February.
    14. Roy Kouwenberg & Remco C J Zwinkels, 2015. "Endogenous Price Bubbles in a Multi-Agent System of the Housing Market," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(6), pages 1-10, June.
    15. Saskia ter Ellen & Willem F. C. Verschoor, 2018. "Heterogeneous Beliefs and Asset Price Dynamics: A Survey of Recent Evidence," Dynamic Modeling and Econometrics in Economics and Finance, in: Fredj Jawadi (ed.), Uncertainty, Expectations and Asset Price Dynamics, pages 53-79, Springer.
    16. Saskia ter Ellen & Willem F.C. Verschoor, 2017. "Heterogeneous beliefs and asset price dynamics: a survey of recent evidence," Working Paper 2017/22, Norges Bank.

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