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Currency demand and the growth of the underground economy in Canada, 1991-1995


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  • Roderick Hill
  • Muhammed Kabir
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    The extent to which the recent introduction of a value-added tax in Canada contributed to the growth of the underground economy remains controversial. If underground economy growth led to increased currency holdings and shifted the currency demand function, forecasts for the period after the introduction of the tax should tend to underestimate currency holdings. Using a cointegration-based error correction mechanism in vector autoregression models, currency demand is estimated using quarterly data for 1968-1990 and dynamic forecasts are made for 1991-1995. On average, currency demand is underpredicted, but by a small amount. The results are consistent with an increase in the underground economy of between 0.01 and 0.3% of GDP as a result of the new tax. If changes in marginal direct tax rates are considered, the underground economy may have grown between 0.1 and 0.7% of GDP in 1991-1995.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Applied Economics.

    Volume (Year): 32 (2000)
    Issue (Month): 2 ()
    Pages: 183-192

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    Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:32:y:2000:i:2:p:183-192

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    Cited by:
    1. Breusch, Trevor, 2006. "Australia’s underground economy – redux?," MPRA Paper 9980, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Diab Harb & Prasad S. Bhattacharya, 2008. "Revealing Australia’s Underground Economy," Economics Series 2008_05, Deakin University, Faculty of Business and Law, School of Accounting, Economics and Finance.


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