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Investment and Instability

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  • Nauro F. Campos

    (CERGE-EI)

  • Jeffrey B. Nugent

    (University of Southern California)

Abstract

Although recet research has repeatedly found a negative association between investment and socio-political instability (SPI), the existence and direction of causality between these two variables has not yet been investigated. We construct an index of SPI for non-overlaping five-years periods between 1960 and 1995 for a sample of 98 developing countries. We use the Granger causality framework and report Anderson-Hsiao- Arellano instrumental variable estimates. Our main finding is that, for the full sample, there is a robust causal relationship going from SPI to investment, and it is positive. In other words, we find three reasons may explain this result: one is that SPI delays investment, another is that it destroys at least part of the capital stock, and the third is that SPI causes changes in government and in government policies that are benefical in the long run.

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File URL: http://128.118.178.162/eps/dev/papers/0012/0012015.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Development and Comp Systems with number 0012015.

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Length: 19 pages
Date of creation: 23 Feb 2001
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpdc:0012015

Note: Type of Document - Acrobat PDF; pages: 19 ; figures: included
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Web page: http://128.118.178.162

Related research

Keywords: Political instability; Aggregate investment; Granger causality;

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References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Jorg Dopke, 2004. "How Robust is the Empirical Link between Business-Cycle Volatility and Long-Run Growth in OECD Countries?," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(1), pages 1-23.
  2. Demir, Firat, 2006. "Volatility of short term capital flows and socio-political instability in Argentina, Mexico and Turkey," MPRA Paper 1943, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Buch, Claudia M. & Doepke, Joerg & Pierdzioch, Christian, 2005. "Financial openness and business cycle volatility," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(5), pages 744-765, September.

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