Cyclical unemployment: sectoral shifts or aggregate disturbances? A vector autoregression approach
AbstractUsing a multivariate vector autoregression (VAR) model, this paper investigates if sectoral shifts, inflation uncertainty, or demand shocks are the primary cause of unemployment fluctuations in the postwar US economy. A sectoral shifts variable (cross-section volatility), an ARCH measure of inflation uncertainty, and three demand shocks variables (monetary base growth rate, interest rates and inflation rates) are incorporated in a VAR model. Our major findings are: cross-section volatility Granger causes unemployment; the sectoral shifts variable and inflation uncertainty explain a small amount, while demand shocks variables explain a substantial amount of the variation in unemployment.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Applied Economics Letters.
Volume (Year): 3 (1996)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
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- G. Gallipoli & G. Pelloni, 2013.
"Macroeconomic Effects of Job Reallocations: A Survey,"
wp897, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
- Giovanni Gallipoli & Gianluigi Pelloni, 2013. "Macroeconomic Effects of Job Reallocations: A Survey," Review of Economic Analysis, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis, vol. 5(2), pages 127-176, December.
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- Giovanni Gallipoli & Gianluigi Pelloni, 2008. "Aggregate Shocks vs Reallocation Shocks: an Appraisal of the Applied Literature," Working Paper Series 27-08, The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis, revised Jan 2008.
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