IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sgh/gosnar/y2013i9p91-115.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Zmiany strukturalne i koniunkturalne a zatrudnienie w polskim przemyśle przetwórczym

Author

Listed:
  • Krzysztof Bartosik

Abstract

Celem artykułu jest wyjaśnienie, jaką rolę odegrały zmiany w gałęziowej strukturze zatrudnienia w kształtowaniu wielkości zatrudnienia w polskim przemyśle przetwórczym. Czy spowolnieniu gospodarczemu na przełomie wieków towarzyszyła intensywniejsza restrukturyzacja niż w czasie spowolnienia gospodarczego pod koniec ostatniej dekady, co przyczyniło się do głębszego spadku zatrudnienia? Do zbadania skali zmian strukturalnych wykorzystano metodę opracowaną przez Groshen i Pottera (2003). Przyjmuje ona, że zmiany w zatrudnieniu są strukturalne, jeśli mają ten sam kierunek w czasie recesji i ekspansji (np. w obu przypadkach zatrudnienie w sektorze rośnie lub spada). Cykliczne zmiany wstępują natomiast, jeśli ich kierunek jest inny w czasie recesji i ekspansji (w przypadku Polski w czasie spowolnienia i ożywienia), np. w pierwszym przypadku zatrudnienie w sektorze spada, a w drugim rośnie. Uzyskane wyniki wskazują, że w badanym okresie gałęzie tracące w wyniku zmian strukturalnych zmniejszyły swój udział w całkowitym zatrudnieniu przemysłu przetwórczego. Zwiększyły jednocześnie swój udział gałęzie reagujące procyklicznie. Prowadzi to do wniosku, że pod koniec ostatniej dekady spadek popytu na pracę związany z dekoniunkturą był mniejszy niż na przełomie wieków, ponieważ mniejsza była niż w przeszłości dodatkowa (w stosunku do koniunkturalnej) redukcja zatrudnienia wynikająca z przeobrażeń strukturalnych. Wskazuje to także na większą możliwość oddziaływania za pomocą tradycyjnej polityki makroekonomicznej na zatrudnienie, zwłaszcza w przemyśle przetwórczym.

Suggested Citation

  • Krzysztof Bartosik, 2013. "Zmiany strukturalne i koniunkturalne a zatrudnienie w polskim przemyśle przetwórczym," Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 9, pages 91-115.
    • Handle: RePEc:sgh:gosnar:y:2013:i:9:p:91-115
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.journalssystem.com/gna/pdf-100955-33018
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ronald Bachmann & Michael C. Burda, 2010. "Sectoral Transformation, Turbulence and Labor Market Dynamics in Germany," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 11(1), pages 37-59, February.
    2. Erica L. Groshen & Simon M. Potter, 2003. "Has structural change contributed to a jobless recovery?," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 9(Aug).
    3. Adrian Wood, 1997. "How Trade Hurt Unskilled Workers," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Jitendralal Borkakoti & Chris Milner (ed.), International Trade and Labour Markets, chapter 7, pages 140-168, Palgrave Macmillan.
    4. Rissman, Ellen R., 1993. "Wage growth and sectoral shifts : Phillips curve redux," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 395-416, June.
    5. Andrew Newell & Francesco Pastore, 2006. "Regional Unemployment and Industrial Restructuring in Poland," Eastern European Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(3), pages 5-28, May.
    6. John Haltiwanger & Scott Schuh, 1999. "Gross job flows between plants and industries," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Mar, pages 41-64.
    7. Jinzhu Chen & Prakash Kannan & Prakash Loungani & Bharat Trehan, 2012. "New evidence on cyclical and structural sources of unemployment," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue March, pages 1-23.
    8. Reicher, Christopher Phillip, 2011. "The aggregate effects of long run sectoral reallocation," Kiel Working Papers 1720, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    9. Lilien, David M, 1982. "Sectoral Shifts and Cyclical Unemployment," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(4), pages 777-793, August.
    10. Giovanni Gallipoli & Gianluigi Pelloni, 2008. "Aggregate Shocks vs Reallocation Shocks: an Appraisal of the Applied Literature," Working Paper series 27_08, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    11. Jacob Funk Kirkegaard, 2009. "Structural and Cyclical Trends in Net Employment over US Business Cycles, 1949–2009: Implications for the Next Recovery and Beyond," Working Paper Series WP09-5, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    12. Abraham, Katharine G & Katz, Lawrence F, 1986. "Cyclical Unemployment: Sectoral Shifts or Aggregate Disturbances?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(3), pages 507-522, June.
    13. Loungani, Prakash & Rush, Mark & Tave, William, 1990. "Stock market dispersion and unemployment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 367-388, June.
    14. Paul Krugman, 1995. "Growing World Trade: Causes and Consequences," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 26(1, 25th A), pages 327-377.
    15. Daniel Aaronson & Ellen R. Rissman & Daniel G. Sullivan, 2004. "Can sectoral reallocation explain the jobless recovery?," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, vol. 28(Q II), pages 36-39.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jinzhu Chen & Prakash Kannan & Prakash Loungani & Bharat Trehan, 2012. "New evidence on cyclical and structural sources of unemployment," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue March, pages 1-23.
    2. Esther Eiling & Raymond Kan & Ali Sharifkhani, 2018. "Sectoral Labor Reallocation and Return Predictability," Working Papers 2018-006, Human Capital and Economic Opportunity Working Group.
    3. Reicher, Christopher Phillip, 2011. "The aggregate effects of long run sectoral reallocation," Kiel Working Papers 1720, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    4. Ellen R. Rissman, 2009. "Employment growth: cyclical movements or structural change?," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, vol. 33(Q IV), pages 40-57.
    5. Yanggyu Byun & Hae-shin Hwang, 2015. "Sectoral shifts or aggregate shocks? A new test of sectoral shifts hypothesis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 49(2), pages 481-502, September.
    6. Giovanni Gallipoli & Gianluigi Pelloni, 2013. "Macroeconomic Effects of Job Reallocations: A Survey," Review of Economic Analysis, Digital Initiatives at the University of Waterloo Library, vol. 5(2), pages 127-176, December.
    7. Azad Haider, 2010. "Can Sectoral Re-allocation Explain the Jobless Growth? Empirical Evidence from Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 49(4), pages 705-718.
    8. Reicher, Christopher Phillip, 2011. "A tale of two countries: A comparison of the aggregate effects of sectoral reallocation in the United States and Germany," Kiel Working Papers 1721, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    9. Reicher, Claire, 2014. "The aggregate effects of long run sectoral reallocation," Kiel Working Papers 1928, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    10. Bachmann Ronald & Burda Michael C., 2010. "Sectoral Transformation, Turbulence and Labor Market Dynamics in Germany," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 11(1), pages 37-59, February.
    11. Choi, Sangyup & Loungani, Prakash, 2015. "Uncertainty and unemployment: The effects of aggregate and sectoral channels," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 344-358.
    12. Gabriel Chodorow-Reich & Johannes Wieland, 2020. "Secular Labor Reallocation and Business Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 128(6), pages 2245-2287.
    13. Edward P. Lazear & James R. Spletzer, 2012. "The United States labor market: status quo or a new normal?," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 405-451.
    14. Kimberly A. Berg & Nam T. Vu, 2021. "Asymmetric effects of sectoral shifts under low and high uncertainty," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 59(3), pages 1149-1171, July.
    15. Shu‐hen Chiang, 2012. "The sources of metropolitan unemployment fluctuations in the Greater Taipei metropolitan area," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 91(4), pages 775-793, November.
    16. Andrew Phiri, 2017. "The Unemployment-Stock Market Relationship in South Africa: Evidence from Symmetric and Asymmetric Cointegration Models," Managing Global Transitions, University of Primorska, Faculty of Management Koper, vol. 15(3 (Fall)), pages 231-254.
    17. Nam Foo & Ruhul Salim, 2022. "The evolution of mining employment during the resource boom and bust cycle in Australia," Mineral Economics, Springer;Raw Materials Group (RMG);Luleå University of Technology, vol. 35(2), pages 309-324, June.
    18. repec:rim:rimwps:27-08 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Johannes Wieland & Gabriel Chodorow-Reich, 2015. "Labor Reallocation and Business Cycles," 2015 Meeting Papers 339, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    20. Nam T. Vu & Jiayu Wu, 2020. "International Effects of Stock Market Dispersion," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 86(4), pages 1393-1417, April.
    21. Andrew Figura, 2002. "Is reallocation related to the cycle? A look at permanent and temporary job flows," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2002-16, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    zatrudnienie; struktura gałęziowa; cykl koniunkturalny; przemysł przetwórczy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J23 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Demand

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sgh:gosnar:y:2013:i:9:p:91-115. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Grzegorz Konat (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/sgwawpl.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.