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Structural and Cyclical Trends in Net Employment over US Business Cycles, 1949–2009: Implications for the Next Recovery and Beyond

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Author Info
Jacob Funk Kirkegaard () (Peterson Institute for International Economics)
Abstract

This paper expands on the methodology of Groshen and Potter (2003) for studying cyclical and structural changes in the US economy and analyzes the net structural and cyclical employment trends in the US economy during the last 10 trough-to-trough business cycles from 1949 to the present. It illustrates that the US manufacturing sector and an increasing number of services sectors, including parts of the financial services sector, are experiencing structural employment declines. Structural employment gains in the US labor market are increasingly concentrated in the healthcare, education, food, and professional and technical services sectors and in the occupations related to these industries. The paper concludes that the improved operation of the US labor market during the 1990s has reversed itself in the 2000s, with negative long-term economic effects for the United States.

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Paper provided by Peterson Institute for International Economics in its series Peterson Institute Working Paper Series with number WP09-5.

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Date of creation: Sep 2009
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Handle: RePEc:iie:wpaper:wp09-5

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Related research
Keywords: Business cycles; structural change; unemployment duration; occupational/sectoral employment shifts; labor turnover; Okun’s Law relationship; Beveridge curves.;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
J62 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, and Vacancies - - - Job, Occupational and Intergenerational Mobility; Promotion
J63 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, and Vacancies - - - Turnover; Vacancies; Layoffs
J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, and Vacancies - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search
O14 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Industrialization; Manufacturing and Service Industries; Choice of Technology
O51 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - U.S.; Canada

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This page was last updated on 2009-11-23.

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