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Effects of Terms of Trade and its Volatility on Economic Growth: A Cross Country Empirical Investigation

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  • Syed Jawaid

    ()

  • Abdul Waheed

    ()

Abstract

This study examines the effects of terms of trade and its volatility on economic growth for a sample of 94 developed and developing countries, using five year average annual data from 2004 to 2008. The cross country ordinary least square estimation results indicate significant positive effect of terms of trade on economic growth. Furthermore, volatility of terms of trade has significant positive effect on economic growth. To test the robustness of initial results, sensitivity analysis has been performed using different additional variables, sample size and various proxies of volatility variable. The initial results were found robust despite the inclusion of various variables in the basic model and use of various proxies for volatility of terms of trade.

(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s11300-011-0201-7
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Springer in its journal Transition Studies Review.

Volume (Year): 18 (2011)
Issue (Month): 2 (December)
Pages: 217-229

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Handle: RePEc:spr:trstrv:v:18:y:2011:i:2:p:217-229

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Related research

Keywords: Terms of trade; Volatility; Economic growth; F13; D80; F43;

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References

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  1. Paul Cashin & C. McDermott, 2002. "Terms of Trade Shocks and the Current Account: Evidence from Five Industrial Countries," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 13(3), pages 219-235, July.
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  3. Goel, Rajeev K. & Ram, Rati, 2001. "Irreversibility of R&D investment and the adverse effect of uncertainty: Evidence from the OECD countries," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 71(2), pages 287-291, May.
  4. Christopher Blattman & Jason Hwang & Jeffrey G. Williamson, 2003. "The Terms of Trade and Economic Growth in the Periphery 1870-1938," NBER Working Papers 9940, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Shigeyuki HAMORI, 2008. "Trade Balances and the Terms of Trade in G-7 Countries: Penal Cointegration Approach," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 8(2), pages 13-22.
  6. Levine, Ross & Renelt, David, 1991. "A sensitivity analysis of cross-country growth regressions," Policy Research Working Paper Series 609, The World Bank.
  7. Robert J. Barro, 1996. "Determinants of Economic Growth: A Cross-Country Empirical Study," NBER Working Papers 5698, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Lutz, Matthias G, 1999. "A General Test of the Prebisch-Singer Hypothesis," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 3(1), pages 44-57, February.
  9. Michael Stastny & Martin Zagler, 2007. "Empirical Evidence on Growth and Volatility," RSCAS Working Papers 2007/22, European University Institute.
  10. Otto, G., 2003. "Terms of trade shocks and the balance of trade: there is a Harberger-Laursen-Metzler effect," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 155-184, April.
  11. Bouakez, Hafedh & Kano, Takashi, 2008. "Terms of trade and current account fluctuations: The Harberger-Laursen-Metzler effect revisited," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 260-281, March.
  12. Bleaney, Michael & Greenaway, David, 2001. "The impact of terms of trade and real exchange rate volatility on investment and growth in sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 491-500, August.
  13. Hock Wong, 2010. "Terms of trade and economic growth in Japan and Korea: an empirical analysis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 38(1), pages 139-158, February.
  14. Mendoza, Enrique G., 1997. "Terms-of-trade uncertainty and economic growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 323-356, December.
  15. Paul Cashin & C. John McDermott, 2001. "The Long-Run Behavior of Commodity Prices," IMF Working Papers 01/68, International Monetary Fund.
  16. Arize, A. C., 1996. "Cointegration test of a long-run relation between the trade balance and the terms of trade in sixteen countries," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 203-215.
  17. Yanikkaya, Halit, 2003. "Trade openness and economic growth: a cross-country empirical investigation," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(1), pages 57-89, October.
  18. Piotr Misztal, 2010. "The Harberger-Laursen-Metzler Effect. Theory and Practice in Poland," Romanian Economic Journal, Department of International Business and Economics from the Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest, vol. 13(38), pages 129-146, December.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Jawaid, Syed Tehseen & Raza, Syed Ali, 2013. "Effects of terms of trade on growth performance of India," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 940-946.
  2. Syed Tehseen Jawaid & Syed Ali Raza, 2012. "Workers' remittances and economic growth in China and Korea: an empirical analysis," Journal of Chinese Economic and Foreign Trade Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 5(3), pages 185-193, December.
  3. Jawaid, Syed Tehseen & Raza, Syed Ali, 2012. "Foreign Direct Investment, Growth and Convergence Hypothesis: A Cross Country Analysis," MPRA Paper 39000, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Jawaid, Syed Tehseen & Raza, Syed Ali, 2012. "Workers’ Remittances and Economic Growth in South Asia," MPRA Paper 39001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. Awel, Ahmed Mohammed, 2012. "Terms of Trade Volatility and Economic Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa," MPRA Paper 45453, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  6. Jawaid, Syed Tehseen & Raza, Syed Ali, 2012. "Remittances, Growth and Convergence: Evidence from Developed and Developing Countries," MPRA Paper 39002, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  7. Jawaid, Syed Tehseen & Raza, Syed Ali, 2012. "Effects of terms of trade and its volatility on economic growth in India," MPRA Paper 38998, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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