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Empirical Evidence on Growth and Volatility

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Author Info
Michael Stastny
Martin Zagler

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Abstract

This paper empirically investigates the relationship between long-run economic growth and output volatility. There is an emerging theoretical literature on the topic which is inconclusive on the size and direction of the relationship. We analyze this relationship empirically for the time series experience of 21 OECD countries between the years 1961 and 2005. After applying a pooled OLS estimator and a series of robustness checks we conclude that there is strong empirical evidence for a positive relationship between output variability and economic growth.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by European University Institute in its series RSCAS Working Papers with number 2007/22.

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Date of creation: 28 Sep 2007
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Handle: RePEc:rsc:rsceui:2007/22

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Related research
Keywords: Growth; Volatility; Cycles; Innovation;

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Kormendi, Roger C. & Meguire, Philip G., 1985. "Macroeconomic determinants of growth: Cross-country evidence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 141-163, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Garey Ramey & Valerie A. Ramey, 1994. "Cross-Country Evidence on the Link Between Volatility and Growth," NBER Working Papers 4959, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Peter C.B. Phillips & Victor Solo, 1989. "Asymptotics for Linear Processes," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 932, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
  4. Sandmo, Agnar, 1970. "The Effect of Uncertainty on Saving Decisions," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(3), pages 353-60, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Victor Zarnowitz, 1981. "Business Cycles and Growth: Some Reflections and Measures," NBER Working Papers 0665, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Bernanke, Ben S, 1983. "Irreversibility, Uncertainty, and Cyclical Investment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 98(1), pages 85-106, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Pindyck, Robert S, 1991. "Irreversibility, Uncertainty, and Investment," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 29(3), pages 1110-48, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Philippe Aghion & George-Marios Angeletos & Abhijit Banerjee & Kalina Manova, 2005. "Volatility and Growth: Credit Constraints and Productivity-Enhancing Investment," NBER Working Papers 11349, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. John Y. Campbell & N. Gregory Mankiw, 1989. "International Evidence on the Persistence of Economic Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 2498, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Boyan Jovanovic, 2006. "Asymmetric Cycles," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 73(1), pages 145-162, 01. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Philippe Aghion & Gilles Saint-Paul, 1993. "Uncovering Some Causal Relationships between Productivity Growth and theStructure of Economic Fluctuations: A Tentative Survey," NBER Working Papers 4603, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Martin Falk & Franz Sinabell, 2009. "A spatial econometric analysis of the regional growth and volatility in Europe," Empirica, Springer, vol. 36(2), pages 193-207, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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