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Trade Balances and the Terms of Trade in G-7 Countries: Penal Cointegration Approach

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  • Shigeyuki HAMORI

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Abstract

This paper empirically analyzes the long-run equilibrium between trade balances and the terms of trade using the nonstationary panel data analysis. Empirical results indicate that trade balances and the terms of trade do not have cointegrating relation for G-7 countries. This implies that the deterioration in the terms of trade will not necessarily improve a country's trade balance in the long-run.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Euro-American Association of Economic Development in its journal Applied Econometrics and International Development.

Volume (Year): 8 (2008)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 13-22

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Handle: RePEc:eaa:aeinde:v:8:y:2008:i:2_2

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Related research

Keywords: panel unit root; panel cointegration; Marshall Lerner condition;

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References

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  1. Peter Phillips & Hyungsik Moon, 2000. "Nonstationary panel data analysis: an overview of some recent developments," Econometric Reviews, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 19(3), pages 263-286.
  2. Haynes, Stephen E & Stone, Joe A, 1982. "Impact of the Terms of Trade on the U.S. Trade Balance: A Reexamination," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 64(4), pages 702-06, November.
  3. Granger, C. W. J. & Newbold, P., 1974. "Spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 111-120, July.
  4. Peter Pedroni, 2001. "Purchasing Power Parity Tests in Cointegrated Panels," Department of Economics Working Papers 2001-01, Department of Economics, Williams College.
  5. Pedroni, Peter, 1999. " Critical Values for Cointegration Tests in Heterogeneous Panels with Multiple Regressors," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(0), pages 653-70, Special I.
  6. Peter Pedroni, 1999. "Critical Values for Cointegration Tests in Heterogeneous Panels with Multiple Regressors," Department of Economics Working Papers 2000-02, Department of Economics, Williams College.
  7. Levin, Andrew & Lin, Chien-Fu & James Chu, Chia-Shang, 2002. "Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 1-24, May.
  8. Arize, A. C., 1996. "Cointegration test of a long-run relation between the trade balance and the terms of trade in sixteen countries," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 203-215.
  9. Houthakker, Hendrik S & Magee, Stephen P, 1969. "Income and Price Elasticities in World Trade," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 51(2), pages 111-25, May.
  10. Goldstein, Morris & Khan, Mohsin S, 1978. "The Supply and Demand for Exports: A Simultaneous Approach," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 60(2), pages 275-86, May.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Jawaid, Syed Tehseen & Raza, Syed Ali, 2012. "Effects of terms of trade and its volatility on economic growth in India," MPRA Paper 38998, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Syed Jawaid & Abdul Waheed, 2011. "Effects of Terms of Trade and its Volatility on Economic Growth: A Cross Country Empirical Investigation," Transition Studies Review, Springer, vol. 18(2), pages 217-229, December.
  3. Faridul, Islam & Mohammad, Iqbal Tahir & Muhammad, Shahbaz, 2012. "Income terms of trade and trade balance: the long run evidence from Bangladesh," MPRA Paper 38384, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 24 Apr 2012.

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