IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/snbeco/v1y2021i6d10.1007_s43546-021-00074-5.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Exchange rate and inflation dynamics: does the month or quarter of the year matter?

Author

Listed:
  • Williams Ohemeng

    (SOLASS, GIMPA)

  • Elvis Kwame Agyapong

    (Department of Accounting and Finance, GIMPA Business School)

  • Kenneth Ofori-Boateng

    (Department of Accounting and Finance, GIMPA Business School)

Abstract

This study examines whether there exists variation in the rate of changes in monthly currency exchange and inflation rates for the various months and quarters of the year. Monthly data were sourced from the time series data portal of Bank of Ghana and Ghana Statistical Service for USD/GHS rate and headline inflation respectively from March 1992 to December 2018. The study employs t-test, OLS regression and GARCH modelling techniques. The results indicate that over the period of the study, inflation was stable with insignificant changes observed between the various months and quarters of the year. For exchange rate however the changes were significant, with quarter 2 having the highest rate of change, followed by quarters 1, 4 and 3 in that order. The analyses also support the exchange rate pass-through in the long run as against the short-run since the changes observed between the two macroeconomic variables do not move in one direction at the same point in time. Both the exchange and inflation rates also displayed explosiveness in volatility shocks over the course of the period under study. Whilst the study confirmed the existence of leverage effect for the conditional volatility of monthly rate of inflation, we could not confirm same for conditional volatility of monthly exchange rate. With this information, businesses, households and policy makers in planning their yearly activities are to consider the observed trend of fluctuations in inflation and exchange rates. Accordingly, businesses should reformulate their strategies to time their international trading activities and payments to gain or mitigate against losses from the forex market. Policy makers could give guaranteed rates to such businesses and use this as a guide for managing their foreign reserves.

Suggested Citation

  • Williams Ohemeng & Elvis Kwame Agyapong & Kenneth Ofori-Boateng, 2021. "Exchange rate and inflation dynamics: does the month or quarter of the year matter?," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 1(6), pages 1-24, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:snbeco:v:1:y:2021:i:6:d:10.1007_s43546-021-00074-5
    DOI: 10.1007/s43546-021-00074-5
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s43546-021-00074-5
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s43546-021-00074-5?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Towbin, Pascal & Weber, Sebastian, 2013. "Limits of floating exchange rates: The role of foreign currency debt and import structure," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 179-194.
    2. Alan M. Taylor & Mark P. Taylor, 2004. "The Purchasing Power Parity Debate," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 18(4), pages 135-158, Fall.
    3. Jeffrey Frankel & David Parsley & Shang-Jin Wei, 2012. "Slow Pass-through Around the World: A New Import for Developing Countries?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 23(2), pages 213-251, April.
    4. Paul Alagidede & Muazu Ibrahim, 2017. "On the Causes and Effects of Exchange Rate Volatility on Economic Growth: Evidence from Ghana," Journal of African Business, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(2), pages 169-193, April.
    5. Ser-Huang Poon & Clive W.J. Granger, 2003. "Forecasting Volatility in Financial Markets: A Review," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 41(2), pages 478-539, June.
    6. Hassan Molana & Kwame Osei-Assibey, 2010. "Inflation Uncertainty, Exchange Rate Depreciation and Volatility: Evidence from Ghana, Mozambique and Tanzania," Dundee Discussion Papers in Economics 246, Economic Studies, University of Dundee.
    7. Lian An & Yoonbai Kim, 2010. "Sources of Exchange Rate Movements in Japan: Is the Exchange Rate a Shock‐Absorber or a Source of Shock?," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(2), pages 265-276, May.
    8. Lim, Joseph, 1987. "The new structuralist critique of the monetarist theory of inflation : The case of the Philippines," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 45-61, February.
    9. Edmar Bacha & Lance Taylor, 1971. "Foreign Exchange Shadow Prices: A Critical Review of Current Theories," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 85(2), pages 197-224.
    10. Takatoshi Ito & Kiyotaka Sato, 2008. "Exchange Rate Changes and Inflation in Post‐Crisis Asian Economies: Vector Autoregression Analysis of the Exchange Rate Pass‐Through," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(7), pages 1407-1438, October.
    11. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
    12. Jiménez-Rodríguez, Rebeca & Morales-Zumaquero, Amalia, 2016. "A new look at exchange rate pass-through in the G-7 countries," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 38(5), pages 985-1000.
    13. Francis Gyebi & Godfried K. Boafo, 2013. "Macroeconomic Determinants Of Inflation In Ghana From 1990 €“ 2009," International Journal of Business and Social Research, LAR Center Press, vol. 3(6), pages 81-93, June.
    14. Ho, Tsung-wu, 2008. "Testing seasonal mean-reversion in the real exchange rates: An application of nonlinear IV estimator," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 99(2), pages 314-316, May.
    15. Alan M. Taylor & Mark P. Taylor, 2004. "The Purchasing Power Parity Debate," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 18(4), pages 135-158, Fall.
    16. Cellini, Roberto & Cuccia, Tiziana, 2011. "Are exchange rates really free from seasonality? An exploratory analysis on monthly time series," MPRA Paper 30888, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Erdenebat Bataa & Denise R. Osborn & Marianne Sensier & Dick van Dijk, 2013. "Structural Breaks in the International Dynamics of Inflation," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 95(2), pages 646-659, May.
    18. Bleaney, Michael & Fielding, David, 2002. "Exchange rate regimes, inflation and output volatility in developing countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 233-245, June.
    19. Eric Eisenstat & Joshua C. C. Chan & Rodney W. Strachan, 2016. "Stochastic Model Specification Search for Time-Varying Parameter VARs," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(8-10), pages 1638-1665, December.
    20. Juan Angel Jimenez-Martin & Rafael Flores de Frutos, 2009. "Seasonal fluctuations and equilibrium models of exchange rate," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(20), pages 2635-2652.
    21. Canavese, Alfredo J., 1982. "The structuralist explanation in the theory of inflation," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 10(7), pages 523-529, July.
    22. Nii K. Sowa & John K Kwakye & Asaf Adebua, 1993. "Inflationary Trends and control in Ghana," Working Papers 22, African Economic Research Consortium, Research Department.
    23. Jarque, Carlos M. & Bera, Anil K., 1980. "Efficient tests for normality, homoscedasticity and serial independence of regression residuals," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 255-259.
    24. Jung, Woo S & Marshall, Peyton J, 1986. "Inflation and Economic Growth: Some International Evidence on Structuralist and Distortionist Positions: A Note," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 18(2), pages 227-232, May.
    25. Jan Priewe, 2017. "Review of exchange-rate theories in four leading economics textbooks," European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies: Intervention, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 14(1), pages 32-47, April.
    26. Francis Gyebi & Godfried K. Boafo, 2013. "Macroeconomic Determinants Of Inflation In Ghana From 1990 €“ 2009," International Journal of Business and Social Research, MIR Center for Socio-Economic Research, vol. 3(6), pages 81-93, June.
    27. Derick Boyd & Ron Smith, 1999. "Testing for Purchasing Power Parity: Econometric Issues and an Application to Developing Countries," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 67(3), pages 287-303, June.
    28. Giray Gozgor, 2012. "Inflation Targeting and Monetary Policy Rules: Further Evidence from the Case of Turkey," Journal of Applied Finance & Banking, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 2(5), pages 1-7.
    29. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Nikitas Pittis & Nicola Spagnolo, 2003. "IGARCH models and structural breaks," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(12), pages 765-768.
    30. Nyoni, Thabani, 2018. "Modeling and Forecasting Inflation in Zimbabwe: a Generalized Autoregressive Conditionally Heteroskedastic (GARCH) approach," MPRA Paper 88132, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Balázs Égert, 2007. "Real Convergence, Price Level Convergence and Inflation in Europe," Working Papers 267, Bruegel.
    2. Koedijk, Kees G. & Tims, Ben & van Dijk, Mathijs A., 2011. "Why panel tests of purchasing power parity should allow for heterogeneous mean reversion," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 246-267, February.
    3. Hai Long Vo & Duc Hong Vo, 2023. "The purchasing power parity and exchange‐rate economics half a century on," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(2), pages 446-479, April.
    4. Balli, Hatice Ozer & Tsui, Wai Hong Kan & Balli, Faruk, 2019. "Modelling the volatility of international visitor arrivals to New Zealand," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 204-214.
    5. Giannellis, Nikolaos & Papadopoulos, Athanasios P., 2009. "Testing for efficiency in selected developing foreign exchange markets: An equilibrium-based approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 155-166, January.
    6. Balázs Égert, 2007. "Real Convergence, Price Level Convergence and Inflation Differentials in Europe," Working Papers 138, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
    7. Bauwens, Luc & Sucarrat, Genaro, 2010. "General-to-specific modelling of exchange rate volatility: A forecast evaluation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 885-907, October.
    8. Maghyereh Aktham Issa & Awartani Basel, 2012. "Modeling and Forecasting Value-at-Risk in the UAE Stock Markets: The Role of Long Memory, Fat Tails and Asymmetries in Return Innovations," Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, De Gruyter, vol. 8(1), pages 1-22, August.
    9. Shiferaw, Y., 2018. "The Bayesian MS-GARCH model and Value-at-Risk in South African agricultural commodity price markets," 2018 Conference, July 28-August 2, 2018, Vancouver, British Columbia 275991, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    10. repec:onb:oenbwp:y::i:138:b:1 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Baharumshah, Ahmad Zubaidi & Sirag, Abdalla & Soon, Siew-Voon, 2017. "Asymmetric exchange rate pass-through in an emerging market economy: The case of Mexico," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 247-259.
    12. Michael Frömmel, 2010. "Volatility Regimes in Central and Eastern European Countries’ Exchange Rates," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 60(1), pages 2-21, February.
    13. Walther, Thomas & Klein, Tony & Thu, Hien Pham & Piontek, Krzysztof, 2017. "True or spurious long memory in European non-EMU currencies," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 217-230.
    14. Kenneth W. Clements & Jiawei Si & Hai Long Vo, 2023. "The Law of One Food Price," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 34(1), pages 195-216, February.
    15. Jan Marc Berk & Job Swank, 2007. "Regional real exchange rates and Phillips curves in monetary unions - Evidence from the US and EMU," DNB Working Papers 147, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    16. Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah & Siew-Voon Soon & Mark E. Wohar, 2021. "Phillips Curve for the Asian Economies: A Nonlinear Perspective," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 57(12), pages 3508-3537, September.
    17. Thi Hong Hanh Pham, 2018. "Liquidity and exchange rate volatility," Working Papers halshs-01708633, HAL.
    18. Manel Youssef & Lotfi Belkacem & Khaled Mokni, 2015. "Extreme Value Theory and long-memory-GARCH Framework: Application to Stock Market," International Journal of Economics and Empirical Research (IJEER), The Economics and Social Development Organization (TESDO), vol. 3(8), pages 371-388, August.
    19. Roberto Cellini & Tiziana Cuccia, 2014. "Seasonal processes in the Euro--US Dollar daily exchange rate," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(3), pages 161-174, February.
    20. Ma, Wei & Li, Haiqi & Park, Sung Y., 2017. "Empirical conditional quantile test for purchasing power parity: Evidence from East Asian countries," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 211-222.
    21. Andreas Hadjixenophontos & Christos Christodoulou-Volos, 2017. "Predictability of Foreign Exchange Rates with the AR(1) Model," Journal of Applied Finance & Banking, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 7(4), pages 1-3.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:snbeco:v:1:y:2021:i:6:d:10.1007_s43546-021-00074-5. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.