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Evaluating the impact of conditional cash transfer programs on fertility: the case of the Red de Protección Social in Nicaragua

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  • Jessica Todd
  • Paul Winters
  • Guy Stecklov

Abstract

Evaluating the impact of poverty-reduction programs on fertility is complicated given that changes in incentives to have children take time to be incorporated into decision making and evaluation periods are usually quite brief. We explore the use of birth spacing as a short-run indicator of the impact of poverty-reduction programs on fertility. The data come from a Nicaraguan conditional cash transfer program that offers incentives for poor households to invest in children’s health, nutrition, and education. We estimate a stratified Cox proportional hazard model and find that the program decreased the hazard of a birth, indicating an increase in birth spacing. Copyright US Government 2012

Suggested Citation

  • Jessica Todd & Paul Winters & Guy Stecklov, 2012. "Evaluating the impact of conditional cash transfer programs on fertility: the case of the Red de Protección Social in Nicaragua," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 25(1), pages 267-290, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:jopoec:v:25:y:2012:i:1:p:267-290
    DOI: 10.1007/s00148-010-0337-5
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    Cited by:

    1. Armando Barrientos & Alma Kudebayeva, 2015. "Social transfers and women’s labour supply in Kyrgyzstan," Global Development Institute Working Paper Series 21515, GDI, The University of Manchester.
    2. John A. Maluccio & Kailash Pandey, 2022. "Food Aid and Fertility: Does Under-Two Targeting Influence Short-Term Fertility?," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 41(5), pages 1893-1916, October.
    3. Richard Groot & Tia Palermo & Sudhanshu Handa & Luigi Peter Ragno & Amber Peterman, 2017. "Themed Issue: Cash Transfers and Microfinance," Development Policy Review, Overseas Development Institute, vol. 35(5), pages 621-643, September.
    4. repec:fgv:epgrbe:v:66:n:4:a:3 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Sonia Laszlo & Muhammad Farhan Majid & Laëtitia Renée, 2024. "Conditional cash transfers and women's reproductive choices," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(2), February.
    6. Eric Schuss & Mohammed Azaouagh, 2023. "The expansion of early childcare and transitions to first and second birth in Germany," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 75(2), pages 476-507, April.
    7. María Alzúa & Guillermo Cruces & Laura Ripani, 2013. "Welfare programs and labor supply in developing countries: experimental evidence from Latin America," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 26(4), pages 1255-1284, October.
    8. Tia Palermo & Sudhanshu Handa & Amber Peterman & Leah Prencipe & David Seidenfeld, 2016. "Unconditional government social cash transfer in Africa does not increase fertility," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 29(4), pages 1083-1111, October.
    9. M. Caridad Araujo & Mariano Bosch & Norbert Schady, 2017. "Can Cash Transfers Help Households Escape an Intergenerational Poverty Trap?," NBER Chapters, in: The Economics of Poverty Traps, pages 357-382, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Santiago Garganta & Leonardo Gasparini & Mariana Marchionni & Mariano Tappatá, 2017. "The Effect of Cash Transfers on Fertility: Evidence from Argentina," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 36(1), pages 1-24, February.
    11. Sefa Awaworyi Churchill & Nasir Iqbal & Saima Nawaz & Siew Ling Yew, 2024. "Do unconditional cash transfers increase fertility? Lessons from a large‐scale program," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 62(1), pages 74-96, January.
    12. Giesecke, Kay & Schwenkler, Gustavo, 2018. "Filtered likelihood for point processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 204(1), pages 33-53.
    13. Chowdury, Sadia & Vergeer, Petra & Schmidt, Harald & Barroy, Helene & Bishai, David & Halpern, Scott, 2013. "Economics and Ethics of Results-Based Financing for Family Planning: Evidence and Policy Implications," Health, Nutrition and Population (HNP) Discussion Paper Series 84663, The World Bank.
    14. John Hoddinott & Tseday J. Mekasha, 2020. "Social Protection, Household Size, and Its Determinants: Evidence from Ethiopia," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 56(10), pages 1818-1837, October.
    15. Independent Evaluation Group, 2014. "Social Safety Nets and Gender : Learning from Impact Evaluations and World Bank Projects," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 21365, December.
    16. Ghosh, Prabhat & Kochar, Anjini, 2018. "Do welfare programs work in weak states? Why? Evidence from a maternity support program in India," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 191-208.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fertility; Conditional cash transfer programs; Hazard model; J13; C41; H53;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • C41 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Duration Analysis; Optimal Timing Strategies
    • H53 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Government Expenditures and Welfare Programs

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