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The Effect of Cash Transfers on Fertility: Evidence from Argentina

Author

Listed:
  • Santiago Garganta

    (Universidad Nacional de La Plata and CONICET)

  • Leonardo Gasparini

    (Universidad Nacional de La Plata and CONICET)

  • Mariana Marchionni

    (Universidad Nacional de La Plata and CONICET)

  • Mariano Tappatá

    (Georgetown University)

Abstract

In 2009 Argentina introduced a large poverty-alleviation program (AUH) that provides monthly cash transfers per child to households without workers in the formal sector. In this paper we study the potential unintended effect of this program on fertility. We apply a difference-in-difference strategy comparing the probability of having a new child among eligible and ineligible mothers both before and after the program inception. The intention to treat estimations suggest a significant positive impact on fertility in households with at least one child (around 2 percentage points), but no significant effect on childless households. Given the short time window since the implementation of the AUH, we are unable to identify whether this positive effect reflects changes in the timing of births or in the equilibrium number of children.

Suggested Citation

  • Santiago Garganta & Leonardo Gasparini & Mariana Marchionni & Mariano Tappatá, 2017. "The Effect of Cash Transfers on Fertility: Evidence from Argentina," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 36(1), pages 1-24, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:poprpr:v:36:y:2017:i:1:d:10.1007_s11113-016-9417-x
    DOI: 10.1007/s11113-016-9417-x
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    2. Magdalena Smyk & Joanna Tyrowicz & Lucas van der Velde, 2021. "A Cautionary Note on the Reliability of the Online Survey Data: The Case of Wage Indicator," Sociological Methods & Research, , vol. 50(1), pages 429-464, February.
    3. Krzysztof Makarski & Joanna Tyrowicz & Magda Malec, 2018. "Evaluating welfare and economic effects of raised fertility," GRAPE Working Papers 25, GRAPE Group for Research in Applied Economics.
    4. Sefa Awaworyi Churchill & Nasir Iqbal & Saima Nawaz & Siew Ling Yew, 2024. "Do unconditional cash transfers increase fertility? Lessons from a large‐scale program," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 62(1), pages 74-96, January.
    5. Pessino, Carola & Izquierdo, Alejandro & Vuletin, Guillermo, 2018. "Better Spending for Better Lives: How Latin America and the Caribbean Can Do More with Less," IDB Publications (Books), Inter-American Development Bank, number 9152, May.
    6. Krzysztof Makarski & Joanna Tyrowicz & Magda Malec, 2019. "Fiscal and Welfare Effects of Raised Fertility in Poland: Overlapping Generations Model Estimates," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 45(4), pages 795-818, December.
    7. Ann-Zofie Duvander & Trude Lappegard & Mats Johansson, 2020. "Impact of a Reform Towards Shared Parental Leave on Continued Fertility in Norway and Sweden," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 39(6), pages 1205-1229, December.
    8. Echeverría, Lucía, 2020. "Modelos colectivos de consumo y distribución intra-hogar. Teoría y aplicaciones," Nülan. Deposited Documents 3832, Universidad Nacional de Mar del Plata, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Sociales, Centro de Documentación.
    9. Asakawa, Shinsuke & Sasaki, Masaru, 2020. "Can Childcare Benefits Increase Maternal Employment? Evidence from Childcare Benefits Policy in Japan," IZA Discussion Papers 13589, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    10. María Edo & Mariana Marchionni, 2018. "Fading Out Effect or Long Lasting Nudge? The impact of a Conditional Cash Transfer Program Beyond Starting the School Year in Argentina," CEDLAS, Working Papers 0225, CEDLAS, Universidad Nacional de La Plata.
    11. Darío Rossignolo, 2022. "The Effect of “Asignación Universal Por Hijo” in the Reduction of Regional Disparities in Argentina," Lecturas de Economía, Universidad de Antioquia, Departamento de Economía, issue 96, pages 71-99, January-J.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fertility; Cash transfers; Social protection; AUH; Argentina;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • I38 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Government Programs; Provision and Effects of Welfare Programs
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth

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