IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/tiu/tiucen/477a3d49-f1af-45e9-a0e3-69d096522c3a.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Unbalanced Sex Ratios in Germany Caused by World War II and their Effect on Fertility : A Life Cycle Perspective

Author

Listed:
  • Kesternich, Iris
  • Siflinger, Bettina

    (Tilburg University, Center For Economic Research)

  • Smith, James P.
  • Steckenleiter, Carina

Abstract

This paper analyzes the effects of permanently unbalanced sex ratios in Germany caused by World War II on fertility outcomes over the life cycle. Using Census records linked with individual biography data, our analysis confirms the commonly found short-term pattern of decreased fertility rates due to a stark imbalance of the sex ratio. Yet, the long-term effects of such an imbalance crucially depend on when in the life cycle fertility is evaluated. We find that female cohorts with low sex ratios have fewer children at younger ages and a larger fraction remains childless. While childlessness remains higher throughout their life cycle, mothers from affected cohorts catch up and even overcompensate at later ages with respect to the number of children. Our preferred reading of this result is that with low sex ratios women select themselves into late motherhood according to their fertility preferences. This interpretation is consistent with the finding that women from affected cohorts expand their childbearing period and accept lower quality matches in the marriage market. Our findings have important implications for understanding the long-term consequences of large population shocks.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of t
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Kesternich, Iris & Siflinger, Bettina & Smith, James P. & Steckenleiter, Carina, 2018. "Unbalanced Sex Ratios in Germany Caused by World War II and their Effect on Fertility : A Life Cycle Perspective," Discussion Paper 2018-032, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:tiu:tiucen:477a3d49-f1af-45e9-a0e3-69d096522c3a
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://pure.uvt.nl/ws/portalfiles/portal/27433566/2018_032.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Claudia Goldin & Claudia Olivetti, 2013. "Shocking Labor Supply: A Reassessment of the Role of World War II on Women's Labor Supply," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(3), pages 257-262, May.
    2. Michal Bauer & Christopher Blattman & Julie Chytilová & Joseph Henrich & Edward Miguel & Tamar Mitts, 2016. "Can War Foster Cooperation?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 30(3), pages 249-274, Summer.
    3. Thomas Baudin & David de la Croix & Paula E. Gobbi, 2015. "Fertility and Childlessness in the United States," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(6), pages 1852-1882, June.
    4. Thomas K. Bauer & Sebastian Braun & Michael Kvasnicka, 2013. "The Economic Integration of Forced Migrants: Evidence for Post‐War Germany," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 123, pages 998-1024, September.
    5. Thomas Baudin & David de la Croix & Paula E. Gobbi, 2015. "Fertility and Childlessness in the United States," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(6), pages 1852-1882, June.
    6. Theodore W. Schultz, 1974. "Economics of the Family: Marriage, Children, and Human Capital," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number schu74-1, March.
    7. Timothy W. Guinnane, 2011. "The Historical Fertility Transition: A Guide for Economists," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 49(3), pages 589-614, September.
    8. Sascha O. Becker & Irena Grosfeld & Pauline Grosjean & Nico Voigtländer & Ekaterina Zhuravskaya, 2020. "Forced Migration and Human Capital: Evidence from Post-WWII Population Transfers," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(5), pages 1430-1463, May.
    9. Matthias Doepke & Moshe Hazan & Yishay D. Maoz, 2015. "The Baby Boom and World War II: A Macroeconomic Analysis," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 82(3), pages 1031-1073.
    10. Guillaume Vandenbroucke, 2014. "Fertility and Wars: The Case of World War I in France," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 6(2), pages 108-136, April.
    11. Josh Angrist, 2002. "How Do Sex Ratios Affect Marriage and Labor Markets? Evidence from America's Second Generation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 117(3), pages 997-1038.
    12. Mevlude Akbulut-Yuksel, 2014. "Children of War: The Long-Run Effects of Large-Scale Physical Destruction and Warfare on Children," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 49(3), pages 634-662.
    13. Jeanne Lafortune, 2013. "Making Yourself Attractive: Pre-marital Investments and the Returns to Education in the Marriage Market," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 5(2), pages 151-178, April.
    14. Ran Abramitzky & Adeline Delavande & Luis Vasconcelos, 2011. "Marrying Up: The Role of Sex Ratio in Assortative Matching," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(3), pages 124-157, July.
    15. Daniel Aaronson & Fabian Lange & Bhashkar Mazumder, 2014. "Fertility Transitions along the Extensive and Intensive Margins," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(11), pages 3701-3724, November.
    16. Bastien Chabé-Ferret & Paula Eugenia Gobbi, 2018. "Economics Uncertainty and Fertility Cycles: The Case of the Post-WWII Baby Boom," Working Papers ECARES 2018-19, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    17. Iris Kesternich & James P. Smith & Joachim K. Winter & Maximiliane Hörl, 2020. "Early‐Life Circumstances Predict Measures of Trust among Adults: Evidence from Hunger Episodes in Post‐War Germany," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 122(1), pages 280-305, January.
    18. Hongbin Li & Junjian Yi & Junsen Zhang, 2011. "Estimating the Effect of the One-Child Policy on the Sex Ratio Imbalance in China: Identification Based on the Difference-in-Differences," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 48(4), pages 1535-1557, November.
    19. Nicholas Kaldor, 1945. "The German War Economy," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 13(1), pages 33-52.
    20. Marianne Bertrand & Esther Duflo & Sendhil Mullainathan, 2004. "How Much Should We Trust Differences-In-Differences Estimates?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 119(1), pages 249-275.
    21. Seema Jayachandran, 2017. "Fertility Decline and Missing Women," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 9(1), pages 118-139, January.
    22. Iris Kesternich & Bettina Siflinger & James P. Smith & Joachim K. Winter, 2014. "The Effects of World War II on Economic and Health Outcomes across Europe," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 96(1), pages 103-118, March.
    23. Daron Acemoglu & David H. Autor & David Lyle, 2004. "Women, War, and Wages: The Effect of Female Labor Supply on the Wage Structure at Midcentury," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(3), pages 497-551, June.
    24. Gert G. Wagner & Joachim R. Frick & Jürgen Schupp, 2007. "The German Socio-Economic Panel Study (SOEP) – Scope, Evolution and Enhancements," Schmollers Jahrbuch : Journal of Applied Social Science Studies / Zeitschrift für Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaften, Duncker & Humblot, Berlin, vol. 127(1), pages 139-169.
    25. Raquel Fernández & Alessandra Fogli & Claudia Olivetti, 2004. "Mothers and Sons: Preference Formation and Female Labor Force Dynamics," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 119(4), pages 1249-1299.
    26. Kesternich, Iris & Siflinger, Bettina M. & Smith, James P. & Winter, Joachim, 2013. "Individual Behavior as a Pathway between Early-Life Shocks and Adult Health: Evidence from Hunger Episodes in Post-War Germany," IZA Discussion Papers 7713, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    27. Gary S. Becker & H. Gregg Lewis, 1974. "Interaction between Quantity and Quality of Children," NBER Chapters, in: Economics of the Family: Marriage, Children, and Human Capital, pages 81-90, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    28. Neelsen, Sven & Stratmann, Thomas, 2011. "Effects of prenatal and early life malnutrition: Evidence from the Greek famine," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 479-488, May.
    29. Elizabeth Brainerd, 2017. "The Lasting Effect of Sex Ratio Imbalance on Marriage and Family: Evidence from World War II in Russia," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 99(2), pages 229-242, May.
    30. Nava Ashraf & Erica Field & Jean Lee, 2014. "Household Bargaining and Excess Fertility: An Experimental Study in Zambia," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(7), pages 2210-2237, July.
    31. Grant, Iris & Kesternich, Iris & Steckenleiter, Carina & Winter, Joachim, 2018. "Historic sex-ratio imbalances predict female participation in the market for politicians," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 156(C), pages 144-165.
    32. Mukesh Eswaran, 2002. "The empowerment of women, fertility, and child mortality: Towards a theoretical analysis," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 15(3), pages 433-454.
    33. Becker, Gary S, 1973. "A Theory of Marriage: Part I," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(4), pages 813-846, July-Aug..
    34. Dirk Bethmann & Michael Kvasnicka, 2013. "World War II, Missing Men and Out of Wedlock Childbearing," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 123(567), pages 162-194, March.
    35. Iris Kesternich & Bettina Siflinger & James P. Smith & Joachim K. Winter, 2015. "Individual Behaviour as a Pathway between Early†life Shocks and Adult Health: Evidence from Hunger Episodes in Post†war Germany," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 125(588), pages 372-393, November.
    36. Pierre-Andre Chiappori & Bernard Fortin & Guy Lacroix, 2002. "Marriage Market, Divorce Legislation, and Household Labor Supply," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 110(1), pages 37-72, February.
    37. repec:ucp:bknber:9780226740867 is not listed on IDEAS
    38. Seebens, Holger, 2006. "Bargaining over Fertility in Rural Ethiopia," Proceedings of the German Development Economics Conference, Berlin 2006 25, Verein für Socialpolitik, Research Committee Development Economics.
    39. S Anukriti, 2018. "Financial Incentives and the Fertility-Sex Ratio Trade-Off," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 10(2), pages 27-57, April.
    40. Timo Hener, 2015. "Do Couples Bargain over Fertility ?," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 117-118, pages 211-231.
    41. Doepke, Matthias & Kindermann, Fabian, 2014. "Intrahousehold Decision Making and Fertility," IZA Discussion Papers 8726, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Grant, Iris & Kesternich, Iris & Steckenleiter, Carina & Winter, Joachim, 2018. "Historic sex-ratio imbalances predict female participation in the market for politicians," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 156(C), pages 144-165.
    2. Tatsuki Inoue amd Erika Igarashi, 2023. "The far-reaching effects of bombing on fertility in mid-20th century Japan," Papers 2306.05770, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2023.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Abel Brodeur & Lamis Kattan, 2022. "World War II, the Baby Boom, and Employment: County-Level Evidence," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 40(2), pages 437-471.
    2. Kota Ogasawara & Mizuki Komura, 2022. "Consequences of war: Japan’s demographic transition and the marriage market," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 35(3), pages 1037-1069, July.
    3. Elizabeth Brainerd, 2017. "The Lasting Effect of Sex Ratio Imbalance on Marriage and Family: Evidence from World War II in Russia," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 99(2), pages 229-242, May.
    4. Kota Ogasawara & Erika Igarashi, 2021. "The Impacts of the Gender Imbalance on Marriage and Birth: Evidence from World War II in Japan," Papers 2102.00687, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2023.
    5. Coles, M & Francesconi, M, 2013. "Equilibrium Search and the Impact of Equal Opportunities for Women," Economics Discussion Papers 9010, University of Essex, Department of Economics.
    6. John Knowles & Guillaume Vandenbroucke, 2019. "Fertility Shocks And Equilibrium Marriage‐Rate Dynamics," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 60(4), pages 1505-1537, November.
    7. Jörn Boehnke & Victor Gay, 2022. "The Missing Men: World War I and Female Labor Force Participation," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 57(4), pages 1209-1241.
    8. Boehnke, Jörn & Gay, Victor, 2020. "The Missing Men: World War I and Female Labor Force Participation," TSE Working Papers 20-1064, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    9. Gay, Victor & Boehnke, Jörn, 2017. "The Missing Men: World War I and Female Labor Participation," MPRA Paper 77560, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Alix-Garcia, Jennifer & Schechter, Laura & Valencia Caicedo, Felipe & Jessica Zhu, S., 2022. "Country of Women? Repercussions of the Triple Alliance War in Paraguay," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 202(C), pages 131-167.
    11. Doepke, M. & Tertilt, M., 2016. "Families in Macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1789-1891, Elsevier.
    12. Bhalotra, Sonia & Venkataramani, Atheendar & Walther, Selma, 2018. "Fertility and labor market responses to reductions in mortality," ISER Working Paper Series 2018-15, Institute for Social and Economic Research.
    13. Erich BATTISTIN & Sascha O. BECKER & Luca Nunziata, 2022. "More choice for men? Marriage patterns after World War II in Italy," JODE - Journal of Demographic Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 88(3), pages 447-472, September.
    14. Victor Gay, 2023. "The Intergenerational Transmission of World War I on Female Labour," Working Papers hal-02523129, HAL.
    15. Giulia La Mattina, 2014. "Civil Conflict, Sex Ratio and Intimate Partner Violence in Rwanda," HiCN Working Papers 175, Households in Conflict Network.
    16. Victor Gay, 2017. "The Legacy of the Missing Men: The Long-Run Impact of World War I on Female Labor Force Participation," 2017 Papers pga905, Job Market Papers.
    17. Doepke, Matthias & Kindermann, Fabian, 2014. "Intrahousehold Decision Making and Fertility," IZA Discussion Papers 8726, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    18. Tan, Zhibo & Wei, Shang-Jin & Zhang, Xiaobo, 2021. "Deadly discrimination: Implications of “missing girls” for workplace safety," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    19. Grant, Iris & Kesternich, Iris & Steckenleiter, Carina & Winter, Joachim, 2018. "Historic sex-ratio imbalances predict female participation in the market for politicians," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 156(C), pages 144-165.
    20. Timothy Halliday & Sumner La Croix, 2013. "Sons, Daughters, and Labor Supply in Early Twentieth-Century Hawaii," Working Papers 201318, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    sex ratio; fertility; marriage; life cycle; World War II;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J10 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - General
    • J12 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Marriage; Marital Dissolution; Family Structure
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:tiu:tiucen:477a3d49-f1af-45e9-a0e3-69d096522c3a. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Richard Broekman (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://center.uvt.nl .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.