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Conditional exact law of large numbers and asymmetric information economies with aggregate uncertainty

Author

Listed:
  • Lei Qiao

    (National University of Singapore)

  • Yeneng Sun

    (National University of Singapore)

  • Zhixiang Zhang

    (Central University of Finance and Economics)

Abstract

A stochastic model with a continuum of economic agents often involves shocks at both macro and micro levels. This can be formalized by a continuum of conditionally independent random variables given the macro level shocks. Based on the framework of a Fubini extension, the results on the exact law of large numbers and its converse for a continuum of independent random variables in Sun (J Econ Theory 126:31–69, 2006) are extended to the setting with conditional independence given general macro states. It also follows from Hammond and Sun (Econ Theory 36:303–325, 2008) that the conditional independence assumption is generally satisfied. As an illustrative application, it is shown that any ex ante efficient allocation in an asymmetric information economy with general aggregate uncertainty has a (utility) equivalent allocation that is incentive compatible, which generalizes the corresponding results in Sun and Yannelis (Games Econ Behav 61:131–155, 2007) to the case with infinitely many states.

Suggested Citation

  • Lei Qiao & Yeneng Sun & Zhixiang Zhang, 2016. "Conditional exact law of large numbers and asymmetric information economies with aggregate uncertainty," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 62(1), pages 43-64, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:joecth:v:62:y:2016:i:1:d:10.1007_s00199-014-0855-6
    DOI: 10.1007/s00199-014-0855-6
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Sun, Yeneng, 1998. "A theory of hyperfinite processes: the complete removal of individual uncertainty via exact LLN1," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 419-503, May.
    2. Peter Hammond & Yeneng Sun, 2008. "Monte Carlo simulation of macroeconomic risk with a continuum of agents: the general case," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 36(2), pages 303-325, August.
    3. Konrad Podczeck, 2010. "On existence of rich Fubini extensions," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 45(1), pages 1-22, October.
    4. Sun, Yeneng, 2006. "The exact law of large numbers via Fubini extension and characterization of insurable risks," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 126(1), pages 31-69, January.
    5. Richard McLean & Andrew Postlewaite, 2002. "Informational Size and Incentive Compatibility," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(6), pages 2421-2453, November.
    6. Peter J. Hammond & Yeneng Sun, 2003. "Monte Carlo simulation of macroeconomic risk with a continuum of agents: the symmetric case," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 21(2), pages 743-766, March.
    7. McLean, Richard & Postlewaite, Andrew, 2005. "Core convergence with asymmetric information," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 58-78, January.
    8. McLean, Richard P. & Postlewaite, Andrew, 2003. "Informational size, incentive compatibility, and the core of a game with incomplete information," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 222-241, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Hellwig, Martin, 2022. "Incomplete-information games in large populations with anonymity," Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 17(1), January.
    2. Wei He & Yeneng Sun, 2018. "Conditional expectation of correspondences and economic applications," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 66(2), pages 265-299, August.
    3. Martin F. Hellwig, 2021. "Public-Good Provision with Macro Uncertainty about Preferences: Efficiency, Budget Balance, and Robustness," Discussion Paper Series of the Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods 2021_19, Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods.
    4. Felix J. Bierbrauer & Martin F. Hellwig, 2015. "Public-Good Provision in Large Economies," Discussion Paper Series of the Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods 2015_12, Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods.
    5. Aristotelis Boukouras & Kostas Koufopoulos, 2017. "Efficient allocations in economies with asymmetric information when the realized frequency of types is common knowledge," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 64(1), pages 75-98, June.
    6. Marcel Nutz, 2016. "A Mean Field Game of Optimal Stopping," Papers 1605.09112, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2017.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Conditional exact law of large numbers; Fubini extension; Conditional independence; Asymmetric information; Ex ante efficiency; Incentive compatibility;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C60 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - General
    • D51 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Exchange and Production Economies
    • D61 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics - - - Allocative Efficiency; Cost-Benefit Analysis
    • D80 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - General
    • E00 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - General

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