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High equity premia and crash fears - Rational foundations

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  • Massimo Guidolin

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Abstract

We show that in a Lucas endowment economy in which the process for dividends is described by a lattice tree subject to infrequent but observable structural breaks, in equilibrium recursive rational learning may inflate the equity risk premium and reduce the risk-free interest rate for low levels of risk aversion. The key condition for these results to obtain is the presence of sufficient initial pessimism. The relevance of these findings is magnified by the fact that under full information our artificial economy cannot generate asset returns matching the empirical evidence for any positive relative risk aversion. Copyright Springer-Verlag Berlin/Heidelberg 2006

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Springer in its journal Economic Theory.

Volume (Year): 28 (2006)
Issue (Month): 3 (08)
Pages: 693-708

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Handle: RePEc:spr:joecth:v:28:y:2006:i:3:p:693-708

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Keywords: Rational learning; Equity premium; Structural breaks.;

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References

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  1. Mordecai Kurz & Maurizio Motolese, 1999. "Endogenous Uncertainty and Market Volatility," Working Papers 1999.27, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
  2. Guidolin, Massimo, 2006. "Pessimistic beliefs under rational learning: Quantitative implications for the equity premium puzzle," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 58(2), pages 85-118.
  3. Guidolin, Massimo & Timmermann, Allan, 2003. "Option prices under Bayesian learning: implied volatility dynamics and predictive densities," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 717-769, March.
  4. Robert B. Barsky & J. Bradford De Long, 1992. "Why Does the Stock Market Fluctuate?," NBER Working Papers 3995, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Timmermann, Allan, 2001. "Structural Breaks, Incomplete Information and Stock Prices," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt1sn269d7, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
  6. Massimo Guidolin & Allan Timmerman, 2005. "Properties of equilibrium asset prices under alternative learning schemes," Working Papers 2005-009, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  7. Carsten Krabbe Nielsen, 1996. "Rational belief structures and rational belief equilibria (*)," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 8(3), pages 399-422.
  8. Rietz, Thomas A., 1988. "The equity risk premium a solution," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 117-131, July.
  9. Brennan, Michael J. & Xia, Yihong, 2001. "Stock price volatility and equity premium," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(2), pages 249-283, April.
  10. Abel, Andrew B., 2002. "An exploration of the effects of pessimism and doubt on asset returns," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 26(7-8), pages 1075-1092, July.
  11. Stephen G. Cecchetti & Pok-sang Lam & Nelson C. Mark, 1998. "Asset Pricing with Distorted Beliefs: Are Equity Returns Too Good To Be True?," NBER Working Papers 6354, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Danthine, Jean-Pierre & Donaldson, John B, 1999. "Non-falsified Expectations and General Equilibrium Asset Pricing: The Power of the Peso," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(458), pages 607-35, October.
  13. Mehra, Rajnish & Prescott, Edward C., 1985. "The equity premium: A puzzle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 145-161, March.
  14. Mordecai Kurz & Hehui Jin & Maurizio Motolese, 2005. "Determinants of stock market volatility and risk premia," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 1(2), pages 109-147, 07.
  15. Timmermann, Allan G, 1993. "How Learning in Financial Markets Generates Excess Volatility and Predictability in Stock Prices," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 108(4), pages 1135-45, November.
  16. Lucas, Deborah J., 1994. "Asset pricing with undiversifiable income risk and short sales constraints: Deepening the equity premium puzzle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 325-341, December.
  17. Mehra, Rajnish & Prescott, Edward C., 1988. "The equity risk premium: A solution?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 133-136, July.
  18. Hansen, Lars Peter & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1983. "Stochastic Consumption, Risk Aversion, and the Temporal Behavior of Asset Returns," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(2), pages 249-65, April.
  19. Kurz, Mordecai, 1994. "On the Structure and Diversity of Rational Beliefs," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 4(6), pages 877-900, October.
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Cited by:
  1. Massimo Guidolin, 2005. "Pessimistic beliefs under rational learning: quantitative implications for the equity premium puzzle," Working Papers 2005-005, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  2. Guidolin, Massimo & Timmermann, Allan, 2007. "Properties of equilibrium asset prices under alternative learning schemes," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 161-217, January.
  3. Sciubba, E., 1999. "The Evolution of Portfolio Rules and the Capital Asset Pricing Model," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9909, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.

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