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The Evolution of Portfolio Rules and the Capital Asset Pricing Model

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Sciubba, E.

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Abstract

The aim of this paper is to test the performance of the standard version of CAPM in an evolutionary framework. We imagine a heterogeneous population of long-lived agents who invest their wealth according to differential porfolio rules and ask what is the fate of those who happen to behave as prescribed by CAPM. In a complete securities market with aggregate uncertainty, it is shown that traders who either believe' in CAPM and use it as a rule of thumb, or are endowed with genuine mean-variance preferences, under some very weak conditions, vanish in the long run. A sufficient condition to drive CAPM or mean-variance traders' wealth shares to zero is shown to be that an investor endowed with a logarithmic utility function enters the market. Finally, the robustness of the results is checked, allowing for different kinds of heterogeneity among traders.

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Paper provided by Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge in its series Cambridge Working Papers in Economics with number 9909.

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Date of creation: Jun 1999
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Handle: RePEc:cam:camdae:9909

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Related research
Keywords: Evolution; Portfolio rules; CAPM; Kelly criterion;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods and Programming - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Rogers, Alan R, 1994. "Evolution of Time Preference by Natural Selection," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(3), pages 460-81, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Witt, Ulrich, 1986. "Firms' market behavior under imperfect information and economic natural selection," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 265-290, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. De Long, J Bradford & Andrei Shleifer & Lawrence H. Summers & Robert J. Waldmann, 1990. "Noise Trader Risk in Financial Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(4), pages 703-38, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Jagannathan, Ravi & Wang, Zhenyu, 1996. " The Conditional CAPM and the Cross-Section of Expected Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(1), pages 3-53, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Shefrin, Hersh & Statman, Meir, 1994. "Behavioral Capital Asset Pricing Theory," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 29(03), pages 323-349, September. [Downloadable!]
  6. Friend, Irwin & Blume, Marshall E, 1975. "The Demand for Risky Assets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 65(5), pages 900-922, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Luo Guo Ying, 1995. "Evolution and Market Competition," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 223-250, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Gode, Dhananjay K & Sunder, Shyam, 1993. "Allocative Efficiency of Markets with Zero-Intelligence Traders: Market as a Partial Substitute for Individual Rationality," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 101(1), pages 119-37, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Robson, Arthur J., 1996. "A Biological Basis for Expected and Non-expected Utility," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 68(2), pages 397-424, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Biais, Bruno & Shadur, Raphaël, 1994. "On the Survival of Irrational Traders: A Darwinian Approach," IDEI Working Papers 32, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse.
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  14. George J. Mailath & Alvaro Sandroni, 2003. "Market Selection and Asymmetric Information," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 70(2), pages 343-368, 04. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Massimo Guidolin, 2005. "High equity premia and crash fears. Rational foundations," Working Papers 2005-011, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
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  16. Cohn, Richard A, et al, 1975. "Individual Investor Risk Aversion and Investment Portfolio Composition," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 30(2), pages 605-20, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Hakansson, Nils H, 1971. "Multi-Period Mean-Variance Analysis: Toward A General Theory of Portfolio Choice," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 26(4), pages 857-84, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  19. J. Bradford De Long & Andrei Shleifer & Lawrence H. Summers & Robert J. Waldmann,, . "The Survival of Noise Traders in Financial Markets," J. Bradford De Long's Working Papers _123, University of California at Berkeley, Economics Department. [Downloadable!]
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  20. Sciubba, E., 1999. "The Evolution of Portfolio Rules and the Capital Asset Pricing Model," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9909, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  21. Blume, Lawrence & Easley, David, 1992. "Evolution and market behavior," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 9-40, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  22. Luenberger, David G., 1993. "A preference foundation for log mean-variance criteria in portfolio choice problems," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 17(5-6), pages 887-906. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  23. Plott, Charles R, 1982. "Industrial Organization Theory and Experimental Economics," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 20(4), pages 1485-1527, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Thorsten Hens & Klaus Reiner Schenk-Hoppé, 2003. "Evolutionary Stability of Portfolio Rules in Incomplete Markets," Discussion Papers 03-03, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Emanuela Sciubba, 2006. "The evolution of portfolio rules and the capital asset pricing model," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 29(1), pages 123-150, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Sciubba, E., 1999. "Asymmetric Information and Survival in Financial Markets," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9908, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Thorsten Hens & Klaus Reiner Schenk-Hoppé & Martin Stalder, 2002. "An Application of Evolutionary Finance to Firms Listed in the Swiss Market Index," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 138(IV), pages 465-487, December. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Thorsten Hens & Klaus Reiner Schenk-Hoppé, 2004. "Survival of the Fittest on Wall Street," Discussion Papers 04-03, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  6. Guido Caldarelli & M. Piccioni & E. Sciubba, 2000. "A Numerical Study On The Evolution Of Portfolio Rules," Computing in Economics and Finance 2000 334, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
  7. Guerdjikova, Ani, 2004. "Evolution of Wealth and Asset Prices in Markets with Case-Based Investors," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 04-49, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim & Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim. [Downloadable!]
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