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Taking PISA Seriously: How Accurate are Low-Stakes Exams?

Author

Listed:
  • Pelin Akyol

    (Bilkent University)

  • Kala Krishna

    (Penn State University, CES-IFO and NBER)

  • Jinwen Wang

    (Bates White Economic Consulting)

Abstract

PISA is seen as the gold standard for evaluating educational outcomes worldwide. Yet, being a low-stakes exam, students may not take it seriously resulting in downward biased scores and inaccurate rankings. This paper provides a method to identify and account for non-serious behavior in low-stakes exams by leveraging information in computer-based assessments in PISA 2015. Our method corrects for non-serious behavior by fully imputing scores for items not taken seriously. We compare the scores/rankings calculated by our method to the scores/rankings calculated by giving zero points to skipped items as well as to the scores/rankings calculated by treating skipped items at the end of the exam as if they were not administered, which is the procedure followed by PISA. We show that a country can improve its ranking by up to 15 places by encouraging its own students to take the exam seriously and that the PISA approach corrects for only about half of the bias generated by the non-seriousness.

Suggested Citation

  • Pelin Akyol & Kala Krishna & Jinwen Wang, 2021. "Taking PISA Seriously: How Accurate are Low-Stakes Exams?," Journal of Labor Research, Springer, vol. 42(2), pages 184-243, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:jlabre:v:42:y:2021:i:2:d:10.1007_s12122-021-09317-8
    DOI: 10.1007/s12122-021-09317-8
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    5. Bobba, Matteo & Frisancho, Veronica & Pariguana, Marco, 2016. "Perceived Ability and School Choices: Experimental Evidence and Scale-up Effects," TSE Working Papers 16-660, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE), revised Jul 2024.
    6. Bau, Natalie & Das, Jishnu & Yi Chang, Andres, 2021. "New evidence on learning trajectories in a low-income setting," International Journal of Educational Development, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    7. Eric A Hanushek & Lavinia Kinneifo & Philipp Lergetporer & Ludger Woessmann, 2022. "Patience, Risk-Taking, and Human Capital Investment Across Countries," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 132(646), pages 2290-2307.
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    9. Ana Balsa & Alejandro Cid & Ana Laura Zardo, 2022. "Providing academic opportunities to vulnerable adolescents: a randomised evaluation of privately managed tuition-free middle schools in Uruguay," Journal of Development Effectiveness, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(4), pages 340-379, October.
    10. Maria Zumbuehl & Stefanie Hof & Stefan C. Wolter, 2020. "Private tutoring and academic achievement in a selective education system," Economics of Education Working Paper Series 0169, University of Zurich, Department of Business Administration (IBW), revised Oct 2022.
    11. De Hoyos Navarro,Rafael E. & Estrada,Ricardo & Vargas Mancera,Maria Jose, 2021. "Do Large-Scale Student Assessments Really Capture Cognitive Skills ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9537, The World Bank.
    12. Lucas Gortazar, 2019. "¿Favorece el sistema educativo español la igualdad de oportunidades?," Studies on the Spanish Economy eee2019-17, FEDEA.
    13. Pelin Akyol, 2021. "Comparison of Computer-based and Paper-based Exams: Evidence from PISA," Bogazici Journal, Review of Social, Economic and Administrative Studies, Bogazici University, Department of Economics, vol. 35(2), pages 137-150.
    14. de Hoyos, Rafael & Estrada, Ricardo & Vargas, María José, 2021. "What do test scores really capture? Evidence from a large-scale student assessment in Mexico," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    15. Hai-Anh Dang & Paul Glewwe & Khoa Vu & Jongwook Lee, 2021. "What Explains Vietnam’s Exceptional Performance in Education Relative to Other Countries? Analysis of the 2012 and 2015 PISA Data," Working Papers 580, ECINEQ, Society for the Study of Economic Inequality.
    16. Ofek-Shanny, Yuval, 2024. "Measurements of performance gaps are sensitive to the level of test stakes: Evidence from PISA and a Field Experiment," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    17. Filmer, Deon & Rogers, Halsey & Angrist, Noam & Sabarwal, Shwetlena, 2020. "Learning-adjusted years of schooling (LAYS): Defining a new macro measure of education," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    18. Dang, Hai-Anh H & Glewwe, Paul & Vu, Khoa & Lee, Jongwook, 2021. "What Explains Vietnam's Exceptional Performance in Education Relative to Other Countries? Analysis of the 2012 and 2015 Pisa Data," IZA Discussion Papers 14315, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    19. Franco, Catalina & Povea, Erika, 2024. "Innocuous Exam Features? The Impact of Answer Placement on High-Stakes Test Performance and College Admissions," Discussion Paper Series in Economics 4/2024, Norwegian School of Economics, Department of Economics.
    20. Brunello, Giorgio & Kiss, David, 2022. "Math scores in high stakes grades," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    21. Griselda, Silvia, 2024. "Gender gap in standardized tests: What are we measuring?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 221(C), pages 191-229.
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    23. Giorgio Brunello & Angela Crema & Lorenzo Rocco, 2021. "Some Unpleasant Consequences of Testing at Length," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 83(4), pages 1002-1023, August.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Low-stakes exams; Computer-based assessments; PISA; Biased rankings; Item response data;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • I20 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - General
    • I21 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Analysis of Education

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