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Towards long-term population decline: a discussion of relevant issues

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  • David S. Reher

    (Universidad Complutense de Madrid)

Abstract

This paper contains thoughts on the process of imminent population decline under way in much of the developed world and quite possibly in other world regions as well. We are witnessing the beginnings of a vast trend change which promises to bring to a close a period of population growth that has lasted for several centuries. It can be shown that this great change is a byproduct of the demographic transition that unleashed a number of the forces leading to where we are today. The extent to which much of the developing world will follow the reproductive trends of the developed world, with their social and economic implications, is discussed. The decades ahead for much of the world will lead us into mostly uncharted territory that bears few similarities with past periods of population decline. The purpose of this paper is to stimulate reflection and debate on a subject that looms as perhaps the key social issue of the twenty-first century.

Suggested Citation

  • David S. Reher, 2007. "Towards long-term population decline: a discussion of relevant issues," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 23(2), pages 189-207, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:eurpop:v:23:y:2007:i:2:d:10.1007_s10680-007-9120-z
    DOI: 10.1007/s10680-007-9120-z
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    Cited by:

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    2. Joshua R. Goldstein & Tomáš Sobotka & Aiva Jasilioniene, 2009. "The End of “Lowest‐Low” Fertility?," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 35(4), pages 663-699, December.
    3. Tong Wu & Beibei Ma & Yongyong Song, 2022. "Spatio-Temporal Patterns of County Population Shrinkage and Influencing Factors in the North–South Transitional Zone of China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(23), pages 1-22, November.
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    5. Mingke Xie & Zhangxian Feng & Chenggu Li, 2022. "How Does Population Shrinkage Affect Economic Resilience? A Case Study of Resource-Based Cities in Northeast China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(6), pages 1-22, March.
    6. Srdelic, Leonarda & Davila-Fernandez, Marwil J., 2022. "Demographic transition and economic growth in 6-EU member states," MPRA Paper 112188, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Keera Allendorf, 2015. "Fertility Decline, Gender Composition of Families, and Expectations of Old Age Support," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 34(4), pages 511-539, August.
    8. Hendrik P. van Dalen & Kène Henkens, 2011. "Who fears and who welcomes population decline?," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 25(13), pages 437-464.
    9. Joshua R. Goldstein & Tomáš Sobotka & Aiva Jasilioniene, 2009. "The end of 'lowest-low' fertility? (with supplementary materials)," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2009-029, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    10. Hendrik P. van Dalen & Kène Henkens, 2012. "What is on a Demographer’s Mind?," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 26(16), pages 363-408.
    11. Hiska Ubels & Bettina Bock & Tialda Haartsen, 2019. "An evolutionary perspective on experimental local governance arrangements with local governments and residents in Dutch rural areas of depopulation," Environment and Planning C, , vol. 37(7), pages 1277-1295, November.
    12. Joanna Z. Mishtal, 2009. "Understanding low fertility in Poland," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 21(20), pages 599-626.
    13. Heike Delfmann & Sierdjan Koster, 2016. "The effect of new business creation on employment growth in regions facing population decline," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 56(1), pages 33-54, January.
    14. Paula Prenzel & Simona Iammarino, 2018. "Ageing labour: How does demographic change affect regional human capital?," Papers in Evolutionary Economic Geography (PEEG) 1832, Utrecht University, Department of Human Geography and Spatial Planning, Group Economic Geography, revised Aug 2018.
    15. Paula Prenzel & Simona Iammarino, 2021. "Labor Force Aging and the Composition of Regional Human Capital," Economic Geography, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 97(2), pages 140-163, March.
    16. Philip Rees & Nicole Gaag & Joop Beer & Frank Heins, 2012. "European Regional Populations: Current Trends, Future Pathways, and Policy Options [Population des Régions Européennes: Tendances Actuelles, Développements Futurs et Options Politiques]," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 28(4), pages 385-416, November.
    17. David Reher & Miguel Requena & María Sanchez-Dominguez & Alberto Sanz-Gimeno & Nieves Pombo, 2021. "A survey of baby booms and busts in 20th century Spain," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 45(41), pages 1255-1268.
    18. Thomas Christiaans, 2017. "On the implications of declining population growth for regional migration," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 122(2), pages 155-171, October.
    19. Moorfeld Maria, 2011. "Landscapes in Eastern Germany at a turning point - linkages between population decline, ageing and land consumption," European Countryside, Sciendo, vol. 3(2), pages 29-50, January.
    20. Jennifer Kane, 2013. "A Closer Look at the Second Demographic Transition in the US: Evidence of Bidirectionality from a Cohort Perspective (1982–2006)," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 32(1), pages 47-80, February.
    21. Heike Delfmann & Sierdjan Koster, 2016. "The effect of new business creation on employment growth in regions facing population decline," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 56(1), pages 33-54, January.
    22. Heike Delfmann & Sierdjan Koster, 2014. "New firm formation and its effect on employment growth in declining regions," ERSA conference papers ersa14p1133, European Regional Science Association.
    23. Rachel S. Franklin, 2021. "The demographic burden of population loss in US cities, 2000–2010," Journal of Geographical Systems, Springer, vol. 23(2), pages 209-230, April.

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