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Policies Addressing the Tempo Effect in Low‐Fertility Countries

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  • Wolfgang Lutz
  • Vegard Skirbekk

Abstract

The possible negative consequences of current low fertility levels are causing increasing concern, particularly in countries where the total fertility rate is below 1.5. Social inertia and self‐reinforcing processes may make it difficult to return to higher levels once fertility has been very low for some time, creating a possible “low‐fertility trap.” Policies explicitly addressing the fertility‐depressing effect of increases in the mean age at child‐bearing (the tempo effect) may be a way to raise period fertility to somewhat higher levels and help escape the “low‐fertility trap” before it closes. Reforms in the school system may affect the timing of childbearing by lowering the age at completion of education. A more efficient school system, which provides the same qualifications with a younger school‐leaving age, is potentially capable of increasing period fertility and hence exerting a rejuvenating effect on the age composition, even if the levels of cohort fertility remain unchanged. Such policies may also have a positive effect on completed cohort fertility.

Suggested Citation

  • Wolfgang Lutz & Vegard Skirbekk, 2005. "Policies Addressing the Tempo Effect in Low‐Fertility Countries," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 31(4), pages 699-720, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:popdev:v:31:y:2005:i:4:p:699-720
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1728-4457.2005.00094.x
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    1. Joshua R. Goldstein & Tomáš Sobotka & Aiva Jasilioniene, 2009. "The End of “Lowest‐Low” Fertility?," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 35(4), pages 663-699, December.
    2. Linus Andersson, 2019. "Online Distance Education and Transition to Parenthood Among Female University Students in Sweden," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 35(4), pages 795-823, October.
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    9. Matteo Picchio & Claudia Pigini & Stefano Staffolani & Alina Verashchagina, 2021. "If not now, when? The timing of childbirth and labor market outcomes," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(6), pages 663-685, September.
    10. Magdalena Smyk & Joanna Tyrowicz & Lucas van der Velde, 2021. "A Cautionary Note on the Reliability of the Online Survey Data: The Case of Wage Indicator," Sociological Methods & Research, , vol. 50(1), pages 429-464, February.
    11. Peter McDonald, 2006. "An Assessment of Policies that Support Having Children from the Perspectives of Equity, Efficiency and Efficacy," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 4(1), pages 213-234.
    12. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Günther Fink & Jocelyn E. Finlay, 2010. "The Cost of Low Fertility in Europe [Le coût de la basse fécondité en Europe]," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 26(2), pages 141-158, May.
    13. David S. Reher, 2007. "Towards long-term population decline: a discussion of relevant issues," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 23(2), pages 189-207, June.
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    15. Joshua R. Goldstein & Tomáš Sobotka & Aiva Jasilioniene, 2009. "The end of 'lowest-low' fertility? (with supplementary materials)," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2009-029, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    16. Máire Ní Bhrolcháin, 2011. "Tempo and the TFR," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 48(3), pages 841-861, August.
    17. Anne H. Gauthier & Dimiter Philipov, 2008. "Can policies enhance fertility in Europe?," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 6(1), pages 1-16.
    18. Margarita Delgado & Gerardo Meil & Francisco Zamora-López, 2008. "Spain: Short on children and short on family policies," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 19(27), pages 1059-1104.
    19. Sinclair, Sarah & Boymal, Jonathan & de Silva, Ashton J, 2012. "Is the fertility response to the Australian baby bonus heterogeneous across maternal age? Evidence from Victoria," MPRA Paper 42725, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Anne Gauthier, 2007. "The impact of family policies on fertility in industrialized countries: a review of the literature," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 26(3), pages 323-346, June.
    21. Yoonyoung Choi, 2022. "A decomposition of declining crude birth rate in South Korea, 1990–2015," Journal of Population Research, Springer, vol. 39(3), pages 373-389, September.
    22. Aart C. Liefbroer & Dimiter Philipov & Francesco C. Billari, 2006. "The Postponement of Childbearing in Europe: Driving Forces and Implications," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 4(1), pages 1-17.
    23. Nikolai Botev, 2008. "'Can policies enhance fertility in Europe?' and questions beyond," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 6(1), pages 29-34.
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    25. Dirk J. van de Kaa, 2006. "Temporarily New: On Low Fertility and the Prospect of Pro-natal Policies," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 4(1), pages 193-211.

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