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Paralyzed by Panic: Measuring the Effect of School Closures during the 1916 Polio Pandemic on Educational Attainment

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  • Keith Meyers
  • Melissa A. Thomasson

Abstract

We leverage the 1916 polio pandemic in the United States as a natural experiment to test whether short-term school closures result in reduced educational attainment as an adult. With over 23,000 cases of polio diagnosed in 1916, officials implemented quarantines and closed schools. Since the pandemic occurred during the start of the 1916 school year, children of working age may have elected not to return to school. Using state-level polio morbidity as a proxy for schooling disruptions, we find that children ages 14-17 during the pandemic had less educational attainment in 1940 compared to their slightly older peers.

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  • Keith Meyers & Melissa A. Thomasson, 2017. "Paralyzed by Panic: Measuring the Effect of School Closures during the 1916 Polio Pandemic on Educational Attainment," NBER Working Papers 23890, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:23890
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    Cited by:

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    2. Das, Sanchita Basu & Narayanan, Badri, 2022. "ASEAN Education Cooperation: An Assessment of the Education Divide and Measuring the Potential Impact of Its Elimination," ADBI Working Papers 1300, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    3. Arthi, Vellore & Parman, John, 2021. "Disease, downturns, and wellbeing: Economic history and the long-run impacts of COVID-19," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    4. Andrés Ham & Juanita Ruiz & Oscar Iván Pineda-Diaz & Natalia Iriarte-Tovar & Juan Sebastián Cifuentes & María Fernanda Rodríguez-Camacho & Laura Feliza Vélez, 2022. "Promoting in-person attendance for early childhood services after the COVID-19 pandemic using text messages," Documentos de trabajo 20773, Escuela de Gobierno - Universidad de los Andes.
    5. Jang, Youngsoo & Yum, Minchul, 2020. "Aggregate and Intergenerational Implications of School Closures: A Quantitative Assessment," MPRA Paper 107593, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Erkmen G. Aslim & Wei Fu & Erdal Tekin & Shijun You, 2023. "From Syringes to Dishes: Improving Food Security through Vaccination," NBER Working Papers 31045, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Brian Beach & Karen Clay & Martin Saavedra, 2022. "The 1918 Influenza Pandemic and Its Lessons for COVID-19," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 60(1), pages 41-84, March.
    8. Marina Murat & Luca Bonacini, 2020. "Coronavirus pandemic, remote learning and education inequalities," Department of Economics (DEMB) 0177, University of Modena and Reggio Emilia, Department of Economics "Marco Biagi".
    9. Marina Murat & Luca Bonacini, 2020. "Coronavirus pandemic, remote learning and education inequalities," Department of Economics 0177, University of Modena and Reggio E., Faculty of Economics "Marco Biagi".
    10. Cohen, Spencer & Chakravarthy, Sumathi & Bharathi, Sindhu & Narayanan, Badri & Park, Cyn-Young, 2022. "Potential Economic Impact of COVID--Related School Closures," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 657, Asian Development Bank.
    11. Andres Ham & Emmanuel Vazquez & Monica Yanez-Pagans, 2023. "The Effects of Differential Exposure to COVID-19 on Educational Outcomes in Guatemala," CEDLAS, Working Papers 0313, CEDLAS, Universidad Nacional de La Plata.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • I26 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Returns to Education
    • N22 - Economic History - - Financial Markets and Institutions - - - U.S.; Canada: 1913-
    • N3 - Economic History - - Labor and Consumers, Demography, Education, Health, Welfare, Income, Wealth, Religion, and Philanthropy

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