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On the implications of declining population growth for regional migration

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  • Thomas Christiaans

    (FOM University of Applied Sciences, Department of Economics)

Abstract

Although many advanced economies nowadays experience decreasing populations, migration in models of economic growth has so far been almost exclusively analyzed for the case of non-negative population growth rates. This paper considers decreasing and possibly negative population growth rates in two two-sector growth models. As long as preferences are homothetic, neither a decrease in population growth rates nor an actual population decline does induce migration in either direction. Introducing quasi-linear preferences implies that a decline in population growth leads to migration from the rural to the industrial region. A complete depopulation of the rural region takes place if the population growth rate falls short of minus the rate of physical capital depreciation. These results reinforce pessimistic expectations about a rural exodus.

Suggested Citation

  • Thomas Christiaans, 2017. "On the implications of declining population growth for regional migration," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 122(2), pages 155-171, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:jeczfn:v:122:y:2017:i:2:d:10.1007_s00712-017-0556-2
    DOI: 10.1007/s00712-017-0556-2
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    Cited by:

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    2. Ichiroh Daitoh, 2020. "Rates of Population Decline in Solow and Semi-Endogenous Growth Models: Empirical Relevance and the Role of Child Rearing Cost," Keio-IES Discussion Paper Series 2020-004, Institute for Economics Studies, Keio University.
    3. Sasaki, Hiroaki & Fukatani, Noriki & Imai, Daisuke & Kamanaka, Yusuke, 2022. "Sustainable Economic Growth in an Economy with Exhaustible Resources and a Declining Population under the Balance-of-Payments Constraint," MPRA Paper 113559, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Sasaki, Hiroaki & Mino, Kazuo, 2021. "Effects of Exhaustible Resources and Declining Population on Economic Growth with Hotelling's Rule," MPRA Paper 107787, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Sasaki, Hiroaki, 2019. "Non-Renewable Resources and the Possibility of Sustainable Economic Development in a Positive or Negative Population Growth Economy," MPRA Paper 92204, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Ichiroh DAITOH & Hiroaki SASAKI, 2023. "At the Right Time:Ramsey-Cass-Koopmans Model with Declining Population," Discussion papers e-23-002, Graduate School of Economics , Kyoto University.
    7. João Plínio Juchem Neto & Bruno Paese, 2023. "An intersectoral migration and growth model with distinct population growth rates," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 43(1), pages 413-428.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    (Negative) population growth; Migration; Two-sector growth model; Quasi-linear preferences;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers
    • O41 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models
    • R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes

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