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Sentiment dynamics and volatility of international stock markets

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  • Berna Aydogan

    (Izmir University of Economics)

Abstract

This study attempts to analyze the effects of investor sentiment on volatility of nine stock markets, and capture the asymmetry in terms of negative and positive news during the period from January, 2004 to June, 2015. Empirical evidence from a sentiment-augmented TGARCH model demonstrates that there is an asymmetric property for all markets. The estimated coefficient of country-specific consumer confidence index used as a proxy for investor sentiment is statistically significant and negative for France and Germany, but statistically significant and positive for Ireland alone. The results provide evidence that in France and Germany, stock market volatility is sensitive to negative shock in investor sentiment, supporting the existence of the leverage effect; in Ireland, however, no such sensitivity exists. The results of this study should be of a particular interest for both domestic and international investors, academic researchers and policymakers in terms of international portfolio diversification. Investors can potentially improve their portfolio performance by considering investor sentiment, while policymakers can take steps to stabilize investor sentiment, thereby reducing stock market volatility and uncertainty.

Suggested Citation

  • Berna Aydogan, 2017. "Sentiment dynamics and volatility of international stock markets," Eurasian Business Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 7(3), pages 407-419, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:eurasi:v:7:y:2017:i:3:d:10.1007_s40821-016-0063-3
    DOI: 10.1007/s40821-016-0063-3
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    Cited by:

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    2. Reis, Pedro Manuel Nogueira & Pinho, Carlos, 2020. "A new European investor sentiment index (EURsent) and its return and volatility predictability," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(C).
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    4. Chen, Rongda & Wang, Shengnan & Ye, Mengya & Jin, Chenglu & Ren, He & Chen, Shu, 2022. "Cross-Market Investor Sentiment of Energy Futures and Return Comovements," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
    5. Kanzari, Dalel & Nakhli, Mohamed Sahbi & Gaies, Brahim & Sahut, Jean-Michel, 2023. "Predicting macro-financial instability – How relevant is sentiment? Evidence from long short-term memory networks," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    6. Čižmešija Mirjana & Lukač Zrinka & Novoselec Tomislav, 2019. "Nonlinear optimisation approach to proposing novel Croatian Industrial Confidence Indicator," Croatian Review of Economic, Business and Social Statistics, Sciendo, vol. 5(2), pages 17-26, December.
    7. Jiang, Shangwei & Jin, Xiu, 2021. "Effects of investor sentiment on stock return volatility: A spatio-temporal dynamic panel model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 298-306.
    8. Yasmeen Idilbi-Bayaa & Mahmoud Qadan, 2022. "Tell Me Why I Do Not Like Mondays," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-22, May.
    9. Selma Izadi & M. Kabir Hassan, 2018. "Portfolio and hedging effectiveness of financial assets of the G7 countries," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 8(2), pages 183-213, August.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Investor sentiment; Noise trading; Volatility; Stock markets;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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