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Do Investors' Sentiment Dynamics affect Stock Returns? Evidence from the US Economy

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Abstract

This paper contributes to the understanding of the non-linear causal linkage between investors' sentiment dynamics and stock returns for the US economy. Employing the sentiment index developed by Baker and Wurgler (J. Econ. Perspect. 16: 129-151, 2007) and within a non-linear causality framework, we found that sentiment embodies signi cant predictive power with respect to stock returns.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Department of Economics, University of Macedonia in its series Discussion Paper Series with number 2012_05.

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Date of creation: Apr 2012
Date of revision: Apr 2012
Handle: RePEc:mcd:mcddps:2012_05

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Web page: http://www.uom.gr/index.php?tmima=3

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Keywords: Investors' sentiment; Stock returns; Non-linear Granger causality.;

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  1. Brown, Gregory W. & Cliff, Michael T., 2004. "Investor sentiment and the near-term stock market," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 1-27, January.
  2. Schmeling, Maik, 2008. "Investor sentiment and stock returns: Some international evidence," Diskussionspapiere der Wirtschaftswissenschaftlichen Fakultät der Leibniz Universität Hannover dp-407, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
  3. Barberis, Nicholas & Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert, 1998. "A model of investor sentiment," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 307-343, September.
  4. Francis, Bill B. & Mougoué, Mbodja & Panchenko, Valentyn, 2010. "Is there a symmetric nonlinear causal relationship between large and small firms?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 23-38, January.
  5. Diks, C.G.H. & Panchenko, V., 2004. "A note on the Hiemstra-Jones test for Granger non-causality," CeNDEF Working Papers 04-10, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
  6. Elliott, Graham & Rothenberg, Thomas J & Stock, James H, 1996. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 813-36, July.
  7. Malcolm Baker & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2007. "Investor Sentiment in the Stock Market," NBER Working Papers 13189, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Breitung, Jorg, 2002. "Nonparametric tests for unit roots and cointegration," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(2), pages 343-363, June.
  9. Hiemstra, Craig & Jones, Jonathan D, 1994. " Testing for Linear and Nonlinear Granger Causality in the Stock Price-Volume Relation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(5), pages 1639-64, December.
  10. Huisman, Ronald & van der Sar, Nico L. & Zwinkels, Remco C.J., 2012. "A new measurement method of investor overconfidence," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 114(1), pages 69-71.
  11. Kling, Gerhard & Gao, Lei, 2008. "Chinese institutional investors' sentiment," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 374-387, October.
  12. Diks, C.G.H. & Panchenko, V., 2004. "A new statistic and practical guidelines for nonparametric Granger causality testing," CeNDEF Working Papers 04-11, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
  13. Thomas Lux, 2011. "Sentiment dynamics and stock returns: the case of the German stock market," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 41(3), pages 663-679, December.
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