IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/mcd/mcddps/2012_05.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Do Investors' Sentiment Dynamics affect Stock Returns? Evidence from the US Economy

Author

Abstract

This paper contributes to the understanding of the non-linear causal linkage between investors' sentiment dynamics and stock returns for the US economy. Employing the sentiment index developed by Baker and Wurgler (J. Econ. Perspect. 16: 129-151, 2007) and within a non-linear causality framework, we found that sentiment embodies signi cant predictive power with respect to stock returns.

Suggested Citation

  • Theologos Dergiades, 2012. "Do Investors' Sentiment Dynamics affect Stock Returns? Evidence from the US Economy," Discussion Paper Series 2012_05, Department of Economics, University of Macedonia, revised Apr 2012.
    • Handle: RePEc:mcd:mcddps:2012_05
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://aphrodite.uom.gr/econwp/pdf/dp052012.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Malcolm Baker & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2007. "Investor Sentiment in the Stock Market," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 21(2), pages 129-152, Spring.
    2. Elliott, Graham & Rothenberg, Thomas J & Stock, James H, 1996. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 813-836, July.
    3. Barberis, Nicholas & Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert, 1998. "A model of investor sentiment," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 307-343, September.
    4. Hiemstra, Craig & Jones, Jonathan D, 1994. "Testing for Linear and Nonlinear Granger Causality in the Stock Price-Volume Relation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(5), pages 1639-1664, December.
    5. Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
    6. Huisman, Ronald & van der Sar, Nico L. & Zwinkels, Remco C.J., 2012. "A new measurement method of investor overconfidence," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 114(1), pages 69-71.
    7. Schmeling, Maik, 2009. "Investor sentiment and stock returns: Some international evidence," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 394-408, June.
    8. Brown, Gregory W. & Cliff, Michael T., 2004. "Investor sentiment and the near-term stock market," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 1-27, January.
    9. Thomas Lux, 2011. "Sentiment dynamics and stock returns: the case of the German stock market," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 41(3), pages 663-679, December.
    10. Breitung, Jorg, 2002. "Nonparametric tests for unit roots and cointegration," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(2), pages 343-363, June.
    11. Kling, Gerhard & Gao, Lei, 2008. "Chinese institutional investors' sentiment," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 374-387, October.
    12. Diks Cees & Panchenko Valentyn, 2005. "A Note on the Hiemstra-Jones Test for Granger Non-causality," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 9(2), pages 1-9, June.
    13. Francis, Bill B. & Mougoué, Mbodja & Panchenko, Valentyn, 2010. "Is there a symmetric nonlinear causal relationship between large and small firms?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 23-38, January.
    14. Diks, Cees & Panchenko, Valentyn, 2006. "A new statistic and practical guidelines for nonparametric Granger causality testing," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(9-10), pages 1647-1669.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Berna Aydogan, 2017. "Sentiment dynamics and volatility of international stock markets," Eurasian Business Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 7(3), pages 407-419, December.
    2. Daniel Perez-Liston & Daniel Huerta-Sanchez & Juan Gutierrez, 2018. "Do Domestic Sentiment and the Spillover of US Investor Sentiment Impact Mexican Stock Market Returns?," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 17(2_suppl), pages 185-212, August.
    3. Hou, Yang & Meng, Jiayin, 2018. "The momentum effect in the Chinese market and its relationship with the simultaneous and the lagged investor sentiment," MPRA Paper 94838, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Lutz, Chandler, 2015. "The impact of conventional and unconventional monetary policy on investor sentiment," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 89-105.
    5. Shah Saeed Hassan Chowdhury, 2023. "Spillover of Sentiments Between the GCC Stock Markets," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 24(6), pages 1434-1453, December.
    6. Han, Xing & Li, Youwei, 2017. "Can investor sentiment be a momentum time-series predictor? Evidence from China," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 212-239.
    7. Dergiades, Theologos & Martinopoulos, Georgios & Tsoulfidis, Lefteris, 2013. "Energy consumption and economic growth: Parametric and non-parametric causality testing for the case of Greece," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 686-697.
    8. Naeem, Muhammad Abubakr & Mbarki, Imen & Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain, 2021. "Predictive role of online investor sentiment for cryptocurrency market: Evidence from happiness and fears," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 496-514.
    9. Li, Xiao & Shen, Dehua & Xue, Mei & Zhang, Wei, 2017. "Daily happiness and stock returns: The case of Chinese company listed in the United States," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 496-501.
    10. Lan, Yueqin & Huang, Yong & Yan, Chao, 2021. "Investor sentiment and stock price: Empirical evidence from Chinese SEOs," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 703-714.
    11. Mehwish Aziz Khan & Eatzaz Ahmad, 2018. "Measurement of Investor Sentiment and Its Bi-Directional Contemporaneous and Lead–Lag Relationship with Returns: Evidence from Pakistan," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(1), pages 1-20, December.
    12. Kyriakos Emmanouilidis & Christos Karpetis, 2020. "The Defense–Growth Nexus: A Review of Time Series Methods and Empirical Results," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(1), pages 86-104, January.
    13. Drakos, Anastassios A., 2016. "Does the relationship between small and large portfolios’ returns confirm the lead–lag effect? Evidence from the Athens Stock Exchange," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 546-561.
    14. Rama Krishna Yelamanchili, 2019. "Impact of Consumer Sentiment on Defensive and Aggressive Stock Returns: Indian Evidence," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 9(4), pages 109-114.
    15. Guo, Kun & Sun, Yi & Qian, Xin, 2017. "Can investor sentiment be used to predict the stock price? Dynamic analysis based on China stock market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 469(C), pages 390-396.
    16. Deven Bathia & Don Bredin & Dirk Nitzsche, 2016. "International Sentiment Spillovers in Equity Returns," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(4), pages 332-359, October.
    17. Xiong, Xiong & Meng, Yongqiang & Li, Xiao & Shen, Dehua, 2020. "Can overnight return really serve as a proxy for firm-specific investor sentiment? Cross-country evidence," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    18. Yiannis Karavias & Stella Spilioti & Elias Tzavalis, 2021. "Investor sentiment effects on share price deviations from their intrinsic values based on accounting fundamentals," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 56(4), pages 1593-1621, May.
    19. Palazzi, Rafael Baptista & Meira, Erick & Klotzle, Marcelo Cabus, 2022. "The sugar-ethanol-oil nexus in Brazil: Exploring the pass-through of international commodity prices to national fuel prices," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 28(C).
    20. Mariem Talbi & Amel Ben Halima, 2019. "Global Contagion of Investor Sentiment during the US Subprime Crisis: The Case of the USA and the Region of Latin America," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 9(3), pages 163-174.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Investors' sentiment; Stock returns; Non-linear Granger causality.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mcd:mcddps:2012_05. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Theodore Panagiotidis or Anastasia Litina (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.uom.gr/index.php?tmima=3 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.