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Global scenarios of residential heating and cooling energy demand and CO2 emissions

Author

Listed:
  • Alessio Mastrucci

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Energy, Climate, and Environment (ECE) Program)

  • Bas Ruijven

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Energy, Climate, and Environment (ECE) Program)

  • Edward Byers

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Energy, Climate, and Environment (ECE) Program)

  • Miguel Poblete-Cazenave

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Energy, Climate, and Environment (ECE) Program)

  • Shonali Pachauri

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Energy, Climate, and Environment (ECE) Program)

Abstract

Buildings account for 36% of global final energy demand and are key to mitigating climate change. Assessing the evolution of the global building stock and its energy demand is critical to support mitigation strategies. However, most global studies lack granularity and overlook heterogeneity in the building sector, limiting the evaluation of demand transformation scenarios. We develop global residential building scenarios along the shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) 1–3 and assess the evolution of building stock, energy demand, and CO2 emissions for space heating and cooling with MESSAGEix-Buildings, a modelling framework soft-linked to an integrated assessment framework. MESSAGEix-Buildings combines bottom-up modelling of energy demand, stock turnover, and discrete choice modelling for energy efficiency decisions, and accounts for heterogeneity in geographical contexts, socio-economics, and buildings characteristics. Global CO2 emissions for space heating are projected to decrease between 34.4 (SSP3) and 52.5% (SSP1) by 2050 under energy efficiency improvements and electrification. Space cooling demand starkly rises in developing countries, with CO2 emissions increasing globally by 58.2 (SSP1) to 85.2% (SSP3) by 2050. Scenarios substantially differ in the uptake of energy efficient new construction and renovations, generally higher for single-family homes, and in space cooling patterns across income levels and locations, with most of the demand in the global south driven by medium- and high-income urban households. This study contributes an advancement in the granularity of building sector knowledge to be assessed in integration with other sources of emissions in the context of global climate change mitigation and sustainable development.

Suggested Citation

  • Alessio Mastrucci & Bas Ruijven & Edward Byers & Miguel Poblete-Cazenave & Shonali Pachauri, 2021. "Global scenarios of residential heating and cooling energy demand and CO2 emissions," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 168(3), pages 1-26, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:168:y:2021:i:3:d:10.1007_s10584-021-03229-3
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-021-03229-3
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Daioglou, Vassilis & Mikropoulos, Efstratios & Gernaat, David & van Vuuren, Detlef P., 2022. "Efficiency improvement and technology choice for energy and emission reductions of the residential sector," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 243(C).
    3. Laibao Liu & Gang He & Mengxi Wu & Gang Liu & Haoran Zhang & Ying Chen & Jiashu Shen & Shuangcheng Li, 2023. "Climate change impacts on planned supply–demand match in global wind and solar energy systems," Nature Energy, Nature, vol. 8(8), pages 870-880, August.
    4. Puppala, Harish & Arora, Manoj Kumar & Garlapati, Nagababu & Bheemaraju, Amarnath, 2023. "GIS-MCDM based framework to evaluate site suitability and CO2 mitigation potential of earth-air-heat exchanger: A case study," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    5. Francesco Pietro Colelli & Johannes Emmerling & Giacomo Marangoni & Malcolm N. Mistry & Enrica Cian, 2022. "Increased energy use for adaptation significantly impacts mitigation pathways," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-12, December.
    6. Nassipkul Dyussembekova & Nazym Temirgaliyeva & Dias Umyshev & Madina Shavdinova & Reiner Schuett & Damesh Bektalieva, 2022. "Assessment of Energy Efficiency Measures’ Impact on Energy Performance in the Educational Building of Kazakh-German University in Almaty," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(16), pages 1-25, August.

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