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Global climate-oriented building energy use scenarios

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  • Harvey, L.D. Danny

Abstract

This paper explores the extent to which global fuel use in buildings could be reduced, and the growth in global electricity use in buildings limited, by applying stringent (factor of 3–4) improvements to recent building codes for new buildings worldwide and large (factor of 2–3) reductions in the energy use of existing buildings through renovations. The analysis is carried out for 10 different socio-economic regions of the world, taking into account existing building stock and energy intensities in each region and projected changes in population and income, which in most parts of the world will drive large increases in building floor area. A stock turnover model is applied to project changes in heating, cooling, service hot water (SHW) and non-thermal electricity demand with various rates of improvement in standards for new and renovated buildings, and various rates of renovation and demolition of existing buildings. For a scenario in which population peaks at about 9 billion and global average per capita GDP increases to twice the 2010 value by 2100, the global fuel demand could be reduced by a factor of four while limiting maximum annual electricity demand to twice the 2010 value.

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  • Harvey, L.D. Danny, 2014. "Global climate-oriented building energy use scenarios," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 473-487.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:67:y:2014:i:c:p:473-487
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2013.12.026
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Alessio Mastrucci & Bas Ruijven & Edward Byers & Miguel Poblete-Cazenave & Shonali Pachauri, 2021. "Global scenarios of residential heating and cooling energy demand and CO2 emissions," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 168(3), pages 1-26, October.
    2. Krupa, Joel & Harvey, L.D. Danny, 2017. "Renewable electricity finance in the United States: A state-of-the-art review," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 913-929.
    3. Edelenbosch, OY & Rovelli, D & Levesque, A & Marangoni, G & Tavoni, M, 2021. "Long term, cross-country effects of buildings insulation policies," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
    4. Danny Harvey, L.D., 2017. "Implications for the floor price of oil of aggressive climate policies," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 143-153.
    5. Minwoo Hyun & Aleh Cherp & Jessica Jewell & Yeong Jae Kim & Jiyong Eom, 2021. "Feasibility trade-offs in decarbonisation of power sector with high coal dependence: A case of Korea," Papers 2111.02872, arXiv.org.

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