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Global greenhouse gas emissions from residential and commercial building materials and mitigation strategies to 2060

Author

Listed:
  • Xiaoyang Zhong

    (Leiden University)

  • Mingming Hu

    (Leiden University
    Chongqing University)

  • Sebastiaan Deetman

    (Leiden University
    Utrecht University)

  • Bernhard Steubing

    (Leiden University)

  • Hai Xiang Lin

    (Leiden University
    Delft University of Technology)

  • Glenn Aguilar Hernandez

    (Leiden University)

  • Carina Harpprecht

    (Leiden University
    Institute of Networked Energy Systems, Curiestreet 4)

  • Chunbo Zhang

    (Leiden University)

  • Arnold Tukker

    (Leiden University
    Netherlands Organization for Applied Scientific Research TNO)

  • Paul Behrens

    (Leiden University
    Leiden University College The Hague, Leiden University)

Abstract

Building stock growth around the world drives extensive material consumption and environmental impacts. Future impacts will be dependent on the level and rate of socioeconomic development, along with material use and supply strategies. Here we evaluate material-related greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions for residential and commercial buildings along with their reduction potentials in 26 global regions by 2060. For a middle-of-the-road baseline scenario, building material-related emissions see an increase of 3.5 to 4.6 Gt CO2eq yr-1 between 2020–2060. Low- and lower-middle-income regions see rapid emission increase from 750 Mt (22% globally) in 2020 and 2.4 Gt (51%) in 2060, while higher-income regions shrink in both absolute and relative terms. Implementing several material efficiency strategies together in a High Efficiency (HE) scenario could almost half the baseline emissions. Yet, even in this scenario, the building material sector would require double its current proportional share of emissions to meet a 1.5 °C-compatible target.

Suggested Citation

  • Xiaoyang Zhong & Mingming Hu & Sebastiaan Deetman & Bernhard Steubing & Hai Xiang Lin & Glenn Aguilar Hernandez & Carina Harpprecht & Chunbo Zhang & Arnold Tukker & Paul Behrens, 2021. "Global greenhouse gas emissions from residential and commercial building materials and mitigation strategies to 2060," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-10, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:12:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-021-26212-z
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-26212-z
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    2. Yan, Ran & Ma, Minda & Zhou, Nan & Feng, Wei & Xiang, Xiwang & Mao, Chao, 2023. "Towards COP27: Decarbonization patterns of residential building in China and India," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 352(C).
    3. Liao, Hua & Peng, Ying & Wang, Fang-Zhi & Zhang, Tong, 2022. "Understanding energy use growth: The role of investment-GDP ratio," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 15-24.
    4. Zhu, Chen & Li, Xiaodong & Zhu, Weina & Gong, Wei, 2022. "Embodied carbon emissions and mitigation potential in China's building sector: An outlook to 2060," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
    5. Janneke van Oorschot & Benjamin Sprecher & Bart Rijken & Pieter Witteveen & Merlijn Blok & Nico Schouten & Ester van der Voet, 2023. "Toward a low‐carbon and circular building sector: Building strategies and urbanization pathways for the Netherlands," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 27(2), pages 535-547, April.
    6. Azhgaliyeva, Dina & Rahut, Dil, 2022. "Promoting Green Buildings: Barriers, Solutions, and Policies," ADBI Working Papers 1331, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    7. Griffiths, Steve & Sovacool, Benjamin K. & Furszyfer Del Rio, Dylan D. & Foley, Aoife M. & Bazilian, Morgan D. & Kim, Jinsoo & Uratani, Joao M., 2023. "Decarbonizing the cement and concrete industry: A systematic review of socio-technical systems, technological innovations, and policy options," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 180(C).
    8. Pérez-Sánchez, Laura À. & Velasco-Fernández, Raúl & Giampietro, Mario, 2022. "Factors and actions for the sustainability of the residential sector. The nexus of energy, materials, space, and time use," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).

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