IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/climat/v146y2018i3d10.1007_s10584-015-1565-1.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The importance of aerosol scenarios in projections of future heat extremes

Author

Listed:
  • Yangyang Xu

    (National Center for Atmospheric Research)

  • Jean-François Lamarque

    (National Center for Atmospheric Research)

  • Benjamin M. Sanderson

    (National Center for Atmospheric Research)

Abstract

Global climate models project a large increase in the frequency and intensity of heat extremes (HEs) during the 21st century under the Representative Pathway Concentration (RCP8.5) scenario. To assess the relative sensitivity of future HEs to the level of greenhouse gas (GHG) increases and aerosol emission decreases, we contrast Community Earth System Model (CESM)’s Large Ensemble projection under RCP8.5 with two additional ensembles: one keeping aerosol emissions at 2005 levels (but allowing all other forcings to progress as in RCP8.5) and the other using the RCP4.5 with lower GHG levels. By the late 21st century (2060–2080), the 3 °C warmer-than-present-day climate simulated under RCP8.5 could be 0.6 °C cooler (0.9 °C over land) if the aerosol emissions in RCP8.5 were not reduced, compared with a 1.2 °C cooling due to GHG mitigation (switching from RCP8.5 to RCP4.5). Aerosol induced cooling and associated HE reductions are relatively stronger in the Northern Hemisphere (NH), as opposed to GHG mitigation induced cooling. When normalized by the global mean temperature change in these two cases, aerosols have a greater effect than GHGs on all HE statistics over NH extra-tropical land areas. Aerosols are more capable of changing HE duration than GHGs in the tropics, explained by stronger dynamical changes in atmospheric circulation, despite weaker thermodynamic changes. Our results highlight the importance of aerosol scenario assumptions in projecting future HEs at regional scales.

Suggested Citation

  • Yangyang Xu & Jean-François Lamarque & Benjamin M. Sanderson, 2018. "The importance of aerosol scenarios in projections of future heat extremes," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 146(3), pages 393-406, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:146:y:2018:i:3:d:10.1007_s10584-015-1565-1
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-015-1565-1
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-015-1565-1
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10584-015-1565-1?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jean-François Lamarque & G. Kyle & Malte Meinshausen & Keywan Riahi & Steven Smith & Detlef Vuuren & Andrew Conley & Francis Vitt, 2011. "Global and regional evolution of short-lived radiatively-active gases and aerosols in the Representative Concentration Pathways," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 109(1), pages 191-212, November.
    2. Yuanyuan Fang & Denise Mauzerall & Junfeng Liu & Arlene Fiore & Larry Horowitz, 2013. "Impacts of 21st century climate change on global air pollution-related premature mortality," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 121(2), pages 239-253, November.
    3. Allison Thomson & Katherine Calvin & Steven Smith & G. Kyle & April Volke & Pralit Patel & Sabrina Delgado-Arias & Ben Bond-Lamberty & Marshall Wise & Leon Clarke & James Edmonds, 2011. "RCP4.5: a pathway for stabilization of radiative forcing by 2100," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 109(1), pages 77-94, November.
    4. Daniel E. Horton & Christopher B. Skinner & Deepti Singh & Noah S. Diffenbaugh, 2014. "Occurrence and persistence of future atmospheric stagnation events," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 4(8), pages 698-703, August.
    5. Aixue Hu & Yangyang Xu & Claudia Tebaldi & Warren M. Washington & Veerabhadran Ramanathan, 2013. "Mitigation of short-lived climate pollutants slows sea-level rise," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 3(8), pages 730-734, August.
    6. V. Kharin & F. Zwiers & X. Zhang & M. Wehner, 2013. "Changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in the CMIP5 ensemble," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 119(2), pages 345-357, July.
    7. Keywan Riahi & Shilpa Rao & Volker Krey & Cheolhung Cho & Vadim Chirkov & Guenther Fischer & Georg Kindermann & Nebojsa Nakicenovic & Peter Rafaj, 2011. "RCP 8.5—A scenario of comparatively high greenhouse gas emissions," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 109(1), pages 33-57, November.
    8. Joeri Rogelj & Shilpa Rao & David L. McCollum & Shonali Pachauri & Zbigniew Klimont & Volker Krey & Keywan Riahi, 2014. "Air-pollution emission ranges consistent with the representative concentration pathways," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 4(6), pages 446-450, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Guillaume Rohat, 2018. "Projecting Drivers of Human Vulnerability under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 15(3), pages 1-23, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Cai, Yiyong & Newth, David & Finnigan, John & Gunasekera, Don, 2015. "A hybrid energy-economy model for global integrated assessment of climate change, carbon mitigation and energy transformation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 381-395.
    2. Taylor, Chris & Cullen, Brendan & D'Occhio, Michael & Rickards, Lauren & Eckard, Richard, 2018. "Trends in wheat yields under representative climate futures: Implications for climate adaptation," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 1-10.
    3. Turner, Sean W.D. & Hejazi, Mohamad & Kim, Son H. & Clarke, Leon & Edmonds, Jae, 2017. "Climate impacts on hydropower and consequences for global electricity supply investment needs," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 2081-2090.
    4. Teotónio, Carla & Fortes, Patrícia & Roebeling, Peter & Rodriguez, Miguel & Robaina-Alves, Margarita, 2017. "Assessing the impacts of climate change on hydropower generation and the power sector in Portugal: A partial equilibrium approach," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 788-799.
    5. Martínez-Jaramillo, Juan Esteban & van Ackere, Ann & Larsen, Erik, 2023. "Long term impacts of climate change on the transition towards renewables in Switzerland," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 263(PE).
    6. Hem H Dholakia & Vimal Mishra & Amit Garg, 2015. "Predicted Increases in Heat related Mortality under Climate Change in Urban India," Working Papers id:7115, eSocialSciences.
    7. Nouri, Milad & Homaee, Mehdi & Bannayan, Mohammad & Hoogenboom, Gerrit, 2016. "Towards modeling soil texture-specific sensitivity of wheat yield and water balance to climatic changes," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 177(C), pages 248-263.
    8. Detlef Vuuren & James Edmonds & Mikiko Kainuma & Keywan Riahi & John Weyant, 2011. "A special issue on the RCPs," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 109(1), pages 1-4, November.
    9. Detlef Vuuren & Jae Edmonds & Mikiko Kainuma & Keywan Riahi & Allison Thomson & Kathy Hibbard & George Hurtt & Tom Kram & Volker Krey & Jean-Francois Lamarque & Toshihiko Masui & Malte Meinshausen & N, 2011. "The representative concentration pathways: an overview," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 109(1), pages 5-31, November.
    10. Ritchie, Justin & Dowlatabadi, Hadi, 2017. "The 1000 GtC coal question: Are cases of vastly expanded future coal combustion still plausible?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 16-31.
    11. Hong, Eun-Mi & Nam, Won-Ho & Choi, Jin-Yong & Pachepsky, Yakov A., 2016. "Projected irrigation requirements for upland crops using soil moisture model under climate change in South Korea," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 163-180.
    12. Nouri, Milad & Homaee, Mehdi & Bannayan, Mohammad & Hoogenboom, Gerrit, 2017. "Towards shifting planting date as an adaptation practice for rainfed wheat response to climate change," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 186(C), pages 108-119.
    13. Camilla Geels & Camilla Andersson & Otto Hänninen & Anne Sofie Lansø & Per E. Schwarze & Carsten Ambelas Skjøth & Jørgen Brandt, 2015. "Future Premature Mortality Due to O 3 , Secondary Inorganic Aerosols and Primary PM in Europe — Sensitivity to Changes in Climate, Anthropogenic Emissions, Population and Building Stock," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 12(3), pages 1-33, March.
    14. Fujimori, Shinichiro & Dai, Hancheng & Masui, Toshihiko & Matsuoka, Yuzuru, 2016. "Global energy model hindcasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 293-301.
    15. Amouzou, Kokou Adambounou & Naab, Jesse B. & Lamers, John P.A. & Borgemeister, Christian & Becker, Mathias & Vlek, Paul L.G., 2018. "CROPGRO-Cotton model for determining climate change impacts on yield, water- and N- use efficiencies of cotton in the Dry Savanna of West Africa," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 85-96.
    16. Kang, Hyunwoo & Sridhar, Venkataramana & Mills, Bradford F. & Hession, W. Cully & Ogejo, Jactone A., 2019. "Economy-wide climate change impacts on green water droughts based on the hydrologic simulations," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 171(C), pages 76-88.
    17. Matsumoto, Ken׳ichi & Andriosopoulos, Kostas, 2016. "Energy security in East Asia under climate mitigation scenarios in the 21st century," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 59(PA), pages 60-71.
    18. Spandagos, Constantinos & Ng, Tze Ling, 2017. "Equivalent full-load hours for assessing climate change impact on building cooling and heating energy consumption in large Asian cities," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 189(C), pages 352-368.
    19. Fujimori, Shinichiro & Masui, Toshihiko & Matsuoka, Yuzuru, 2014. "Development of a global computable general equilibrium model coupled with detailed energy end-use technology," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 296-306.
    20. Keywan Riahi & Shilpa Rao & Volker Krey & Cheolhung Cho & Vadim Chirkov & Guenther Fischer & Georg Kindermann & Nebojsa Nakicenovic & Peter Rafaj, 2011. "RCP 8.5—A scenario of comparatively high greenhouse gas emissions," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 109(1), pages 33-57, November.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:146:y:2018:i:3:d:10.1007_s10584-015-1565-1. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.