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Future Premature Mortality Due to O 3 , Secondary Inorganic Aerosols and Primary PM in Europe — Sensitivity to Changes in Climate, Anthropogenic Emissions, Population and Building Stock

Author

Listed:
  • Camilla Geels

    (Department of Environmental Science, Aarhus University, Frederiksborgvej 399, P.O. Box. 358, 4000 Roskilde, Denmark)

  • Camilla Andersson

    (Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Norrköping SE-60176, Sweden)

  • Otto Hänninen

    (Department of Health Protection, National Institute for Health and Welfare (THL), 70701 Kuopio, Finland)

  • Anne Sofie Lansø

    (Department of Environmental Science, Aarhus University, Frederiksborgvej 399, P.O. Box. 358, 4000 Roskilde, Denmark)

  • Per E. Schwarze

    (Department of Air Pollution and Noise, Norwegian Institute of Public Health, 4404 Nydalen, 0403 Oslo, Norway)

  • Carsten Ambelas Skjøth

    (National Pollen and Aerobiological Research Unit, Institute of Science and the Environment, University of Worcester, Worcester WR2 6AJ, UK)

  • Jørgen Brandt

    (Department of Environmental Science, Aarhus University, Frederiksborgvej 399, P.O. Box. 358, 4000 Roskilde, Denmark)

Abstract

Air pollution is an important environmental factor associated with health impacts in Europe and considerable resources are used to reduce exposure to air pollution through emission reductions. These reductions will have non-linear effects on exposure due, e.g., to interactions between climate and atmospheric chemistry. By using an integrated assessment model, we quantify the effect of changes in climate, emissions and population demography on exposure and health impacts in Europe. The sensitivity to the changes is assessed by investigating the differences between the decades 2000–2009, 2050–2059 and 2080–2089. We focus on the number of premature deaths related to atmospheric ozone, Secondary Inorganic Aerosols and primary PM. For the Nordic region we furthermore include a projection on how population exposure might develop due to changes in building stock with increased energy efficiency. Reductions in emissions cause a large significant decrease in mortality, while climate effects on chemistry and emissions only affects premature mortality by a few percent. Changes in population demography lead to a larger relative increase in chronic mortality than the relative increase in population. Finally, the projected changes in building stock and infiltration rates in the Nordic indicate that this factor may be very important for assessments of population exposure in the future.

Suggested Citation

  • Camilla Geels & Camilla Andersson & Otto Hänninen & Anne Sofie Lansø & Per E. Schwarze & Carsten Ambelas Skjøth & Jørgen Brandt, 2015. "Future Premature Mortality Due to O 3 , Secondary Inorganic Aerosols and Primary PM in Europe — Sensitivity to Changes in Climate, Anthropogenic Emissions, Population and Building Stock," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 12(3), pages 1-33, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:12:y:2015:i:3:p:2837-2869:d:46370
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Allison Thomson & Katherine Calvin & Steven Smith & G. Kyle & April Volke & Pralit Patel & Sabrina Delgado-Arias & Ben Bond-Lamberty & Marshall Wise & Leon Clarke & James Edmonds, 2011. "RCP4.5: a pathway for stabilization of radiative forcing by 2100," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 109(1), pages 77-94, November.
    2. Joeri Rogelj & Shilpa Rao & David L. McCollum & Shonali Pachauri & Zbigniew Klimont & Volker Krey & Keywan Riahi, 2014. "Air-pollution emission ranges consistent with the representative concentration pathways," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 4(6), pages 446-450, June.
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    1. Andreas Tornevi & Camilla Andersson & Ana Cristina Carvalho & Joakim Langner & Nikolai Stenfors & Bertil Forsberg, 2021. "Respiratory Health Effects of Wildfire Smoke during Summer of 2018 in the Jämtland Härjedalen Region, Sweden," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(13), pages 1-14, June.
    2. Kaj M. Hansen & Jesper H. Christensen & Jørgen Brandt, 2015. "The Influence of Climate Change on Atmospheric Deposition of Mercury in the Arctic—A Model Sensitivity Study," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 12(9), pages 1-15, September.

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