An approach to computing marginal land use change carbon intensities for bioenergy in policy applications

Accurately characterizing the emissions implications of bioenergy is increasingly important to the design of regional and global greenhouse gas mitigation policies. Market-based policies, in particular, often use information about carbon intensity to adjust relative deployment incentives for different energy sources. However, the carbon intensity of bioenergy is difficult to quantify because carbon emissions can occur when land use changes to expand production of bioenergy crops rather than simply when the fuel is consumed as for fossil fuels. Using a long-term, integrated assessment model, this paper develops an approach for computing the carbon intensity of bioenergy production that isolates the marginal impact of increasing production of a specific bioenergy crop in a specific region, taking into account economic competition among land uses. We explore several factors that affect emissions intensity and explain these results in the context of previous studies that use different approaches. Among the factors explored, our results suggest that the carbon intensity of bioenergy production from land use change (LUC) differs by a factor of two depending on the region in which the bioenergy crop is grown in the United States. Assumptions about international land use policies (such as those related to forest protection) and crop yields also significantly impact carbon intensity. Finally, we develop and demonstrate a generalized method for considering the varying time profile of LUC emissions from bioenergy production, taking into account the time path of future carbon prices, the discount rate and the time horizon. When evaluated in the context of power sector applications, we found electricity from bioenergy crops to be less carbon-intensive than conventional coal-fired electricity generation and often less carbon-intensive than natural-gas fired generation.