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Impacts of 21st century climate change on global air pollution-related premature mortality

Author

Listed:
  • Yuanyuan Fang
  • Denise Mauzerall
  • Junfeng Liu
  • Arlene Fiore
  • Larry Horowitz

Abstract

Climate change modulates surface concentrations of fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) and ozone (O 3 ), indirectly affecting premature mortality attributed to air pollution. We estimate the change in global premature mortality and years of life lost (YLL) associated with changes in surface O 3 and PM 2.5 over the 21st century as a result of climate change. We use a global coupled chemistry-climate model to simulate current and future climate and the effect of changing climate on air quality. Epidemiological concentration-response relationships are applied to estimate resulting changes in premature mortality and YLL. The effect of climate change on air quality is isolated by holding emissions of air pollutants constant while allowing climate to evolve over the 21st century according to a moderate projection of greenhouse gas emissions (A1B scenario). Resulting changes in 21st century climate alone lead to an increase in simulated PM 2.5 concentrations globally, and to higher (lower) O 3 concentrations over populated (remote) regions. Global annual premature mortality associated with chronic exposure to PM 2.5 increases by approximately 100 thousand deaths (95 % confidence interval, CI, of 66–130 thousand) with corresponding YLL increasing by nearly 900 thousand (95 % CI, 576–1,128 thousand) years. The annual premature mortality due to respiratory disease associated with chronic O 3 exposure increases by +6,300 deaths (95 % CI, 1,600–10,400). This climate penalty indicates that stronger emission controls will be needed in the future to meet current air quality standards and to avoid higher health risks associated with climate change induced worsening of air quality over populated regions. Copyright The Author(s) 2013

Suggested Citation

  • Yuanyuan Fang & Denise Mauzerall & Junfeng Liu & Arlene Fiore & Larry Horowitz, 2013. "Impacts of 21st century climate change on global air pollution-related premature mortality," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 121(2), pages 239-253, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:121:y:2013:i:2:p:239-253
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-013-0847-8
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    Cited by:

    1. Emodi, Nnaemeka Vincent & Inekwe, John Nkwoma & Zakari, Abdulrasheed, 2022. "Transport infrastructure, CO2 emissions, mortality, and life expectancy in the Global South," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 243-253.
    2. Shih-Yi Lin & Yu-Cih Yang & Cherry Yin-Yi Chang & Cheng-Chieh Lin & Wu-Huei Hsu & Shu-Woei Ju & Chung-Y. Hsu & Chia-Hung Kao, 2019. "Risk of Polycystic Ovary Syndrome in Women Exposed to Fine Air Pollutants and Acidic Gases: A Nationwide Cohort Analysis," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(23), pages 1-14, November.
    3. Nilakshi T. Waidyatillake & Patricia T. Campbell & Don Vicendese & Shyamali C. Dharmage & Ariadna Curto & Mark Stevenson, 2021. "Particulate Matter and Premature Mortality: A Bayesian Meta-Analysis," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(14), pages 1-21, July.
    4. Yangyang Xu & Jean-François Lamarque & Benjamin M. Sanderson, 2018. "The importance of aerosol scenarios in projections of future heat extremes," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 146(3), pages 393-406, February.
    5. Ruth McDermott-Levy & Madeline Scolio & Kabindra M. Shakya & Caroline H. Moore, 2021. "Factors That Influence Climate Change-Related Mortality in the United States: An Integrative Review," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(15), pages 1-21, August.

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