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A way forward on adaptation to climate change in Colombian agriculture: perspectives towards 2050

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  • Julian Ramirez-Villegas
  • Mike Salazar
  • Andy Jarvis
  • Carlos Navarro-Racines

Abstract

Policy measures regarding adaptation to climate change include efforts to adjust socio-economic and ecologic systems. Colombia has undertaken various measures in terms of climate change mitigation and adaptation since becoming a party of the Kyoto protocol in 2001 and a party of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in 1995. The first national communication to the UNFCCC stated how Colombian agriculture will be severely impacted under different emission scenarios and time frames. The analyses in this document further support that climate change will severely threaten the socioeconomics of Colombian agriculture. We first query national data sources to characterize the agricultural sector. We then use 17 Global Circulation Model (GCM) outputs to quantify how Colombian agricultural production may be affected by climate change, and show the expected changes to years 2040–2069 (“2050”) under the A2 scenario of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES-A2) and the overall trends in both precipitation and temperature to 2100. We then evaluate expected changes within different regions and measure the proportion of area affected within each crop’s distributional range. By 2050, climatic change in Colombia will likely impact 3.5 million people, 14 % of national GDP corresponding to agriculture, employment of 21 % of the population, agro-industries, supply chains, and food and nutritional security. If no adaptation measures are taken, 80 % of crops would be impacted in more than 60 % of their current areas of cultivation, with particularly severe impacts in high value perennial and exportable crops. Impacts also include soil degradation and organic matter losses in the Andes hillsides; likely flooding in the Caribbean and Pacific coasts; niche losses for coffee, fruit, cocoa, and bananas; changes in prevalence of pests and diseases; and increases in the vulnerabilities of non-technically developed smallholders. There is, however, still time to change the current levels of vulnerability if a multidisciplinary focus (i.e., agronomic, economic, and social) in vulnerable sectors is undertaken. Each sub-sector and the Government need to invest in: (1) data collection, (2) detailed, regionally-based impact assessments, (3) research and development, and (4) extension and technology transfer. Support to vulnerable smallholders should be given by the state in the form of agricultural insurance systems contextualized under the phenomenon of climate change. A national coordination scheme led by (but not restricted to) the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MADR) with the contributions of national and international institutions is needed to address agricultural adaptation. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2012

Suggested Citation

  • Julian Ramirez-Villegas & Mike Salazar & Andy Jarvis & Carlos Navarro-Racines, 2012. "A way forward on adaptation to climate change in Colombian agriculture: perspectives towards 2050," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 115(3), pages 611-628, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:115:y:2012:i:3:p:611-628
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-012-0500-y
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Andrea Bastianin & Alessandro Lanza & Matteo Manera, 2018. "Economic impacts of El Niño southern oscillation: evidence from the Colombian coffee market," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 49(5), pages 623-633, September.
    2. Anton Eitzinger & Peter Läderach & Beatriz Rodriguez & Myles Fisher & Stephen Beebe & Kai Sonder & Axel Schmidt, 2017. "Assessing high-impact spots of climate change: spatial yield simulations with Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) model," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 22(5), pages 743-760, June.
    3. Xu, Bin & Lin, Boqiang, 2017. "Factors affecting CO2 emissions in China’s agriculture sector: Evidence from geographically weighted regression model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 404-414.
    4. Anton Eitzinger & Peter Läderach & Christian Bunn & Audberto Quiroga & Andreas Benedikter & Antonio Pantoja & Jason Gordon & Michele Bruni, 2014. "Implications of a changing climate on food security and smallholders’ livelihoods in Bogotá, Colombia," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 19(2), pages 161-176, February.
    5. Trinh, Thoai Quang & Rañola, Roberto F. & Camacho, Leni D. & Simelton, Elisabeth, 2018. "Determinants of farmers’ adaptation to climate change in agricultural production in the central region of Vietnam," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 224-231.
    6. Hua Zhang & Sidai Guo & Yubing Qian & Yan Liu & Chengpeng Lu, 2020. "Dynamic analysis of agricultural carbon emissions efficiency in Chinese provinces along the Belt and Road," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(2), pages 1-22, February.
    7. Radwan, Amira & Hongyun, Han & Achraf, Abdelhak & Mustafa, Ahmed M., 2022. "Energy use and energy-related carbon dioxide emissions drivers in Egypt's economy: Focus on the agricultural sector with a structural decomposition analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 258(C).
    8. Palmiro Poltronieri & Franca Rossi, 2016. "Challenges in Specialty Coffee Processing and Quality Assurance," Challenges, MDPI, vol. 7(2), pages 1-22, October.
    9. Taifeng Yang & Xuetao Huang & Yue Wang & Houjian Li & Lili Guo, 2022. "Dynamic Linkages among Climate Change, Mechanization and Agricultural Carbon Emissions in Rural China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(21), pages 1-24, November.
    10. Ghulam Ghouse & Aribah Aslam & Muhammad Ishaq Bhatti, 2022. "The Impact of the Environment, Digital–Social Inclusion, and Institutions on Inclusive Growth: A Conceptual and Empirical Analysis," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(19), pages 1-19, September.
    11. Giuseppe Feola, 2013. "What (science for) adaptation to climate change in Colombian agriculture? A commentary on “A way forward on adaptation to climate change in Colombian agriculture: perspectives towards 2050” by J. Rami," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 119(3), pages 565-574, August.
    12. Diego Valbuena & Julien G. Chenet & Daniel Gaitán-Cremaschi, 2021. "Options to Support Sustainable Trajectories in a Rural Landscape: Drivers, Rural Processes, and Local Perceptions in a Colombian Coffee-Growing Region," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(23), pages 1-20, November.
    13. Jessica Eise & Natalie J. Lambert & Eric C. Wiemer, 2021. "Leveraging communities’ network strengths to support climate change adaptation information-sharing: a study with coffee farmers in Risaralda, Colombia," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 168(1), pages 1-19, September.
    14. Rishikesh Pandey, 2019. "Farmers’ perception on agro-ecological implications of climate change in the Middle-Mountains of Nepal: a case of Lumle Village, Kaski," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 21(1), pages 221-247, February.
    15. Venturin, Afonso Zucolotto & Guimarães, Claudinei Martins & Sousa, Elias Fernandes de & Machado Filho, José Altino & Rodrigues, Weverton Pereira & Serrazine, Ícaro de Araujo & Bressan-Smith, Ricardo &, 2020. "Using a crop water stress index based on a sap flow method to estimate water status in conilon coffee plants," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 241(C).
    16. Botero, Hernan & Barnes, Andrew P. & Perez, Lisset & Rios, David & Ramirez-Villegas, Julian, 2021. "The determinants of common bean variety selection and diversification in Colombia," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 190(C).
    17. Anton Eitzinger & Claudia R. Binder & Markus A. Meyer, 2018. "Risk perception and decision-making: do farmers consider risks from climate change?," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 151(3), pages 507-524, December.
    18. Michael L. Mann & James M. Warner & Arun S. Malik, 2019. "Predicting high-magnitude, low-frequency crop losses using machine learning: an application to cereal crops in Ethiopia," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 154(1), pages 211-227, May.
    19. Norbert Anselm & Grischa Brokamp & Brigitta Schütt, 2018. "Assessment of Land Cover Change in Peri-Urban High Andean Environments South of Bogotá, Colombia," Land, MDPI, vol. 7(2), pages 1-28, June.
    20. Hernan Botero & Andrew P. Barnes, 2022. "The effect of ENSO on common bean production in Colombia: a time series approach," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 14(6), pages 1417-1430, December.
    21. Julian Ramirez-Villegas & Colin Khoury, 2013. "Reconciling approaches to climate change adaptation for Colombian agriculture," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 119(3), pages 575-583, August.

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