Dışa Açıklık ile İşsizlik Arasındaki İlişki: Seçilmiş AB Ülkeleri ve Türkiye Üzerine Zamana Göre Değişen Parametreli Bir Analiz Algıları

Spreading the shocks to economies appears from two channels with the globalization process. These channels are the transmission channels of trade and finance. These two mechanisms generated effects simultaneously on economies after the 2007-2008 global crisis. Simultaneous effects started a process emerging as a decline in economic growth and an increase in the unemployment rate. Generally, the measures taken against these process have been implemented as monetary expansion (Quantative easing-QE) policies, however the countries, which particularly EU countries that not carrying out common fiscal policy, fall into liquidity trap in the sense that the effects of as mentioned policies usually expose to a time varying unemployment process. Therefore, in this study by using a time varying parameter techniques the responses of the unemployment rates to openness levels have analyzed. In the periods of 2011Q1-2015Q4 by using a time varying parameter VAR (TVP-VAR) method developed by Nakajima (2011), what extent the unemployment rates are affected from the openness level of the countries is analyzed. According to the findings of the study, it has found that the openness level of the countries in question has a decisive feature on unemployment. It has also revealed that the UK is economically different from the EU, and the effects of openness on unemployment for France and Germany are asymmetrical.