This file is part of IDEAS, which uses RePEc data


[ Papers | Articles | Software | Books | Chapters | Authors | Institutions | JEL Classification | NEP reports | Search | New papers by email | Author registration | Rankings | Volunteers | FAQ | Blog | Help! ]

Do Bivariate SVAR Models with Long-Run Identifying Restrictions Yield Reliable Results? An Investigation into the Case of Germany

Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics
Author Info
Jan Gottschalk
Willem Van Zandweghe

Additional information is available for the following registered author(s):

Abstract

Bivariate SVAR models employing long-run identifying restrictions are popular tools to investigate the source of business cycle fluctuations. Their advantage is the simplicity in use and interpretation. However, their low dimension may also lead to a failure of the identification procedure, with the result that the identified shocks are a mixture of the 'true' shocks. To investigate this issue, the consistency of results from different bivariate SVAR models estimated for German data is evaluated using the FAUST and LEEPER (1997) test procedure. The principal result is that these models do not allow reliable inference on the sources of output fluctuations.

Download Info
To download:

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. Information about this may be contained in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.sjes.ch/papers/2003-I-3.pdf
File Format: application/pdf
File Function:
Download Restriction: no

Publisher Info
Article provided by Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES) in its journal Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics.

Volume (Year): 139 (2003)
Issue (Month): I (March)
Pages: 55-81
Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Handle: RePEc:ses:arsjes:2003-i-3

Contact details of provider:
Email:
Web page: http://www.sjes.ch
More information through EDIRC

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (Peter Steiner).

Related research
Keywords: Business Cycle Fluctuations; Structural Vector Autoregression Models; Long-run Restrictions;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 1996. "Do measures of monetary policy in a VAR make sense?," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 96-05, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    Other versions:
  2. Clarida, Richard & Gali, Jordi, 1994. "Sources of real exchange-rate fluctuations: How important are nominal shocks?," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 1-56, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Elliott, Graham & Rothenberg, Thomas J & Stock, James H, 1996. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 813-36, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Lippi, Marco & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 1993. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(3), pages 644-52, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Quah, Danny, 1989. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 655-73, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  6. H. L"Utkepohl & J. Breitung, . "Impulse Response Analysis of Vector Autoregressive Processes," Sonderforschungsbereich 373 1996-86, Humboldt Universitaet Berlin.
  7. Mark S Astley & Tony Yates, . "Inflation and real disequilibria," Bank of England working papers 103, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
  8. Hansen, Bruce E., 1992. "Testing for parameter instability in linear models," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 517-533, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Quah, Danny, 1995. "Misinterpreting the dynamic effects of aggregate demand and supply disturbances," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 247-250, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Bergman, Michael, 1996. "International evidence on the sources of macroeconomic fluctuations," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(6), pages 1237-1258, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Artis, Michael J & Kontolemis, Zenon G & Osborn, Denise R, 1997. "Business Cycles for G7 and European Countries," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 70(2), pages 249-79, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Long, John B, Jr & Plosser, Charles I, 1983. "Real Business Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(1), pages 39-69, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Bagliano, Fabio C. & Favero, Carlo A., 1998. "Measuring monetary policy with VAR models: An evaluation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(6), pages 1069-1112, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  14. Campbell, John Y & Mankiw, N Gregory, 1987. "Are Output Fluctuations Transitory?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 102(4), pages 857-80, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  15. Bullard, James & Keating, John W., 1995. "The long-run relationship between inflation and output in postwar economies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 477-496, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Perron, Pierre, 1997. "Further evidence on breaking trend functions in macroeconomic variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 355-385, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  17. Funke, Michael, 1997. "Supply potential and output gaps in West German manufacturing," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 211-222, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Fisher, Mark E & Seater, John J, 1993. "Long-Run Neutrality and Superneutrality in an ARIMA Framework," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(3), pages 402-15, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Tamim Bayoumi, 1991. "The Effect of the ERM on Participating Economies," IMF Working Papers 91/86, International Monetary Fund.
  20. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Quah, Danny, 1993. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances: Reply," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(3), pages 653-58, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  21. Jon Faust & Eric M. Leeper, 1994. "When do long-run identifying restrictions give reliable results?," Working Paper 94-2, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    Other versions:
  22. Quah, Danny, 1992. "The Relative Importance of Permanent and Transitory Components: Identification and Some Theoretical Bounds," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(1), pages 107-18, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
Full references

Statistics
Access and download statistics

Did you know? You too can volunteer for RePEc, for example by providing information about publications in your institution.

This page was last updated on 2009-12-22.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.