IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/toueco/v22y2016i2p417-447.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Effects of Economic Crises on Tourism Success: An Integrated Model

Author

Listed:
  • José Francisco Perles-Ribes
  • Ana Belén Ramón-Rodríguez
  • Martín Sevilla-Jiménez
  • Antonio Rubia

Abstract

This paper provides a theoretical model of the influence of economic crises on tourism destination performance. It discusses the temporary and permanent effects of economic crises on the global market shares of tourism destinations through a series of potential transmission mechanisms based on the main economic competitiveness determinants identified in the literature. The proposed model explains the non-neutrality of economic shocks in tourism competitiveness. The model is tested on Spain's tourism industry, which is among the leaders of the global tourism sector, for the period 1970–2013 using non-linear econometric techniques. The empirical analysis confirms that the proposed model is appropriate for explaining the changes in the market positions caused by the economic crises.

Suggested Citation

  • José Francisco Perles-Ribes & Ana Belén Ramón-Rodríguez & Martín Sevilla-Jiménez & Antonio Rubia, 2016. "The Effects of Economic Crises on Tourism Success: An Integrated Model," Tourism Economics, , vol. 22(2), pages 417-447, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:toueco:v:22:y:2016:i:2:p:417-447
    DOI: 10.5367/te.2014.0428
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.5367/te.2014.0428
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.5367/te.2014.0428?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Stephan Schulmeister, 1979. "Tourism and the Business Cycle. Econometric Models for the Purpose of Analysis and Forecasting of Short-Term Changes in the Demand for Tourism," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 2878, April.
    2. Song, Haiyan & Witt, Stephen F. & Jensen, Thomas C., 2003. "Tourism forecasting: accuracy of alternative econometric models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 123-141.
    3. Mita Bhattacharya & Paresh Kumar Narayan, 2005. "Testing for the random walk hypothesis in the case of visitor arrivals: evidence from Indian tourism," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(13), pages 1485-1490.
    4. Paresh Kumar Narayan, 2011. "Are shocks to tourism transitory at business cycle horizons?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(16), pages 2071-2077.
    5. Terasvirta, Timo & Tjostheim, Dag & Granger, Clive W. J., 2010. "Modelling Nonlinear Economic Time Series," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199587155.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Gizem Uzuner & Sudeshna Ghosh, 2021. "Do pandemics have an asymmetric effect on tourism in Italy?," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 55(5), pages 1561-1579, October.
    2. Herman Sahni & Christian Nsiah & Bichaka Fayissa, 2021. "The African economic growth experience and tourism receipts: A threshold analysis and quantile regression approach," Tourism Economics, , vol. 27(5), pages 915-932, August.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Vatsa, Puneet, 2020. "Comovement amongst the demand for New Zealand tourism," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    2. Bonciani, Dario, 2015. "Estimating the effects of uncertainty over the business cycle," MPRA Paper 65921, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Galvão, Ana Beatriz, 2013. "Changes in predictive ability with mixed frequency data," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 395-410.
    4. Fotiou, Alexandra & Shen, Wenyi & Yang, Shu-Chun S., 2020. "The fiscal state-dependent effects of capital income tax cuts," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    5. Ketenci, Natalya, 2009. "The ARDL Approach to Cointegration Analysis of Tourism Demand in Turkey: with Greece as the substitution destination," MPRA Paper 86602, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Abdelkamel Alj & Christophe Ley & Guy Melard, 2015. "Asymptotic Properties of QML Estimators for VARMA Models with Time-Dependent Coefficients: Part I," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2015-21, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    7. Guizzardi, Andrea & Mazzocchi, Mario, 2010. "Tourism demand for Italy and the business cycle," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 367-377.
    8. Zacharias Psaradakis & Marián Vávra, 2019. "Portmanteau tests for linearity of stationary time series," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(2), pages 248-262, February.
    9. Lahiri, Kajal & Yang, Liu, 2013. "Forecasting Binary Outcomes," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1025-1106, Elsevier.
    10. Nyoni, Thabani & Mutongi, Chipo, 2019. "Modeling and forecasting carbon dioxide emissions in China using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models," MPRA Paper 93984, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Paolo Gorgi & Siem Jan Koopman, 2020. "Beta observation-driven models with exogenous regressors: a joint analysis of realized correlation and leverage effects," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 20-004/III, Tinbergen Institute.
    12. Eric Hillebrand & Marcelo C. Medeiros, 2016. "Nonlinearity, Breaks, and Long-Range Dependence in Time-Series Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(1), pages 23-41, January.
    13. Degui Li & Oliver Linton & Zudi Lu, 2012. "A flexible semiparametric model for time series," CeMMAP working papers 28/12, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    14. Li, Gang & Song, Haiyan & Witt, Stephen F., 2006. "Time varying parameter and fixed parameter linear AIDS: An application to tourism demand forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 57-71.
    15. Ann-Ni Soh & Chin-Hong Puah & Meng-Chang Jong, 2022. "Macroeconomic Determinants of Tourism Demand in Malaysia: A Markov Switching Regression Approach," Business Management and Strategy, Macrothink Institute, vol. 13(2), pages 95-107, December.
    16. Michael Wegener & Göran Kauermann, 2017. "Forecasting in nonlinear univariate time series using penalized splines," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 58(3), pages 557-576, September.
    17. Paresh Kumar Narayan, 2011. "Are shocks to tourism transitory at business cycle horizons?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(16), pages 2071-2077.
    18. Emilio Zanetti Chini, 2013. "Generalizing smooth transition autoregressions," CREATES Research Papers 2013-32, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    19. Alfred A. Haug & Syed Abul Basher, 2019. "Exchange rates of oil exporting countries and global oil price shocks: a nonlinear smooth-transition approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(48), pages 5282-5296, October.
    20. Nyoni, Thabani, 2019. "Forecasting the population of Brazil using the Box-Jenkins ARIMA approach," MPRA Paper 92437, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:toueco:v:22:y:2016:i:2:p:417-447. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.