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A flexible semiparametric model for time series

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  • Degui Li
  • Oliver Linton
  • Zudi Lu

Abstract

We consider approximating a multivariate regression function by an affine combination of one-dimensional conditional component regression functions. The weight parameters involved in the approximation are estimated by least squares on the first-stage nonparametric kernel estimates. We establish asymptotic normality for the estimated weights and the regression function in two cases: the number of the covariates is finite, and the number of the covariates is diverging. As the observations are assumed to be stationary and near epoch dependent, the approach in this paper is applicable to estimation and forecasting issues in time series analysis. Furthermore, the methods and results are augmented by a simulation study and illustrated by application in the analysis of the Australian annual mean temperature anomaly series. We also apply our methods to high frequency volatility forecasting, where we obtain superior results to parametric methods.

Suggested Citation

  • Degui Li & Oliver Linton & Zudi Lu, 2012. "A flexible semiparametric model for time series," CeMMAP working papers 28/12, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    • Handle: RePEc:azt:cemmap:28/12
    DOI: 10.1920/wp.cem.2012.2812
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Linton, Oliver B., 2000. "Efficient Estimation Of Generalized Additive Nonparametric Regression Models," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(4), pages 502-523, August.
    2. Linton, Oliver B. & Mammen, Enno, 2008. "Nonparametric transformation to white noise," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 142(1), pages 241-264, January.
    3. Liang, Hua & Zou, Guohua & Wan, Alan T. K. & Zhang, Xinyu, 2011. "Optimal Weight Choice for Frequentist Model Average Estimators," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 106(495), pages 1053-1066.
    4. Li, Degui & Lu, Zudi & Linton, Oliver, 2012. "Local Linear Fitting Under Near Epoch Dependence: Uniform Consistency With Convergence Rates," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 28(5), pages 935-958, October.
    5. O. Linton & E. Mammen, 2005. "Estimating Semiparametric ARCH(∞) Models by Kernel Smoothing Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 73(3), pages 771-836, May.
    6. Yongmiao Hong, 2000. "Generalized spectral tests for serial dependence," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 62(3), pages 557-574.
    7. Terasvirta, Timo & Tjostheim, Dag & Granger, Clive W. J., 2010. "Modelling Nonlinear Economic Time Series," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199587155.
    8. Zudi Lu, 2001. "Asymptotic Normality of Kernel Density Estimators under Dependence," Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Springer;The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, vol. 53(3), pages 447-468, September.
    9. Oliver Linton & E. Mammen & J. Nielsen, 1997. "The Existence and Asymptotic Properties of a Backfitting Projection Algorithm Under Weak Conditions," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1160, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    10. Linton, Oliver & Sancetta, Alessio, 2009. "Consistent estimation of a general nonparametric regression function in time series," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 152(1), pages 70-78, September.
    11. J. P. Nielsen & O. B. Linton, 1998. "An optimization interpretation of integration and back‐fitting estimators for separable nonparametric models," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 60(1), pages 217-222.
    12. Fan J. & Li R., 2001. "Variable Selection via Nonconcave Penalized Likelihood and its Oracle Properties," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 96, pages 1348-1360, December.
    13. Bruce E. Hansen, 2007. "Least Squares Model Averaging," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 75(4), pages 1175-1189, July.
    14. Andrews, Donald W.K., 1995. "Nonparametric Kernel Estimation for Semiparametric Models," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(3), pages 560-586, June.
    15. Lu, Zudi & Linton, Oliver, 2007. "Local Linear Fitting Under Near Epoch Dependence," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(1), pages 37-70, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Francisco Azuero & Jorge Armando Rodríguez, 2016. "Preservación ambiental de la Amazonia colombiana: retos para la política fiscal," Revista Cuadernos de Economia, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, FCE, CID, vol. 35(Especial ), pages 281-313, January.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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