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Shift-Share Analysis as a Linear Model

Author

Listed:
  • D C Knudsen

    (Department of Geography, Indiana University, Bloomington, IN 47405, USA)

  • R Barff

    (Department of Geography, Dartmouth College, Hanover, NH 03755, USA)

Abstract

Shift-share analysis continues to be popular among geographers, regional scientists, and planners despite widespread criticism of the method. In this paper, it is argued that insufficient attention has been paid to model-based approaches to shift—share analysis. It is shown that conventional shift—share and stochastic shift—share yield identical conclusions. Stochastic shift—share is easily extended dynamically and along the lines suggested by Arcelus. Thus, in the stochastic models several of the most persistent criticisms of the technique are addressed by allowing for testing of hypotheses, while preserving the practicality of the conventional accounting approach. It is suggested that stochastic shift—share should be used whenever practical.

Suggested Citation

  • D C Knudsen & R Barff, 1991. "Shift-Share Analysis as a Linear Model," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 23(3), pages 421-431, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:envira:v:23:y:1991:i:3:p:421-431
    DOI: 10.1068/a230421
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Kingsley E. Haynes & Zachary B. Machunda, 1988. "Decomposition Of Change In Spatial Employment Concentration: An Information‐Theoretic Extension Of Shift‐Share Analysis," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 65(1), pages 101-113, January.
    2. D R Holden & J K Swales & A G M Nairn, 1987. "The Repeated Application of Shift-Share: A Structural Explanation of Regional Growth?," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 19(9), pages 1233-1250, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Klinger, Sabine & Wolf, Katja, 2008. "What explains changes in full-time and part-time employment in Western Germany? : a new method on an old question," IAB-Discussion Paper 200807, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    2. Valente J. Matlaba & Mark Holmes & Philip McCann & Jacques Poot, 2014. "Classic and Spatial Shift-Share Analysis of State-Level Employment Change in Brazil," Advances in Spatial Science, in: Karima Kourtit & Peter Nijkamp & Robert Stimson (ed.), Applied Regional Growth and Innovation Models, edition 127, chapter 0, pages 139-172, Springer.
    3. Uwe Blien & Katja Wolf, 2002. "Regional development of employment in eastern Germany: an analysis with an econometric analogue to shift-share techniques," Papers in Regional Science, Springer;Regional Science Association International, vol. 81(3), pages 391-414.
    4. Farhauer, Oliver & Kröll, Alexandra, 2009. "Die Shift-Share-Analyse als Instrument der Regional- und Clusterforschung," Passauer Diskussionspapiere, Volkswirtschaftliche Reihe V-59-09, University of Passau, Faculty of Business and Economics.
    5. Gerd Ahlert & Martin Distelkamp & Anett Großmann & Frank Hohmann & Dr. Christian Lutz & Prof. Dr. Bernd Meyer & Philip Ulrich & Marc Ingo Wolter, 2007. "Förderinitiative REFINA: PANTA RHEI REGIO – Modellgrundlagen und Modellkonzeption," GWS Discussion Paper Series 07-3, GWS - Institute of Economic Structures Research.
    6. Mario Polèse & Richard Shearmur, 2006. "Growth and Location of Economic Activity: The Spatial Dynamics of Industries in Canada 1971–2001," Growth and Change, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(3), pages 362-395, September.
    7. Matthias Firgo & Oliver Fritz, 2017. "Does having the right visitor mix do the job? Applying an econometric shift-share model to regional tourism developments," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 58(3), pages 469-490, May.
    8. Aying Liu & Shujie Yao & Zongyi Zhang, 1999. "Economic Growth and Structural Changes in Employment and Investments in China, 1985–94," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 32(3), pages 171-190, October.
    9. Daniel J. Graham Shaw & Nigel Spence, 1998. "A Productivity Growth Interpretation of the Labour Demand Shift-Share Model," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(6), pages 515-525, August.
    10. Joachim Ragnitz & Stefan Arent & Wolfgang Nierhaus & Beate Schirwitz & Johannes Steinbrecher & Gerit Vogt & Björn Ziegenbalg, 2010. "Methodenexpertise zur Analyse der Auswirkungen der internationalen Finanz- und Wirtschaftskrise auf die Wirtschaft im Land Brandenburg : Gutachten im Auftrag des Ministeriums für Wirtschaft des Landes," ifo Dresden Studien, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 53, July.
    11. Matias Mayor & Ana Jesus Lopez & Rigoberto Perez, 2007. "Forecasting Regional Employment with Shift-Share and ARIMA Modelling," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(4), pages 543-551.
    12. Thomas de Graaff & Raymond J.G.M. Florax & Peter Nijkamp & Aura Reggiani, 1998. "Diagnostic Tools for Nonlinearity in Spatial Models," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 98-072/3, Tinbergen Institute.
    13. Uwe Blien & Lutz Eigenhueller & Markus Promberger & Norbert Schanne, 2013. "The Shift-Share Regression: An Application to Regional Employ-ment Development," ERSA conference papers ersa13p614, European Regional Science Association.
    14. Miguel A. Márquez & Julián Ramajo & Geoffrey J. D. Hewings, 2009. "Incorporating Sectoral Structure into Shift–Share Analysis," Growth and Change, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(4), pages 594-618, December.
    15. Willem Johannes Maria Heijman & Cornelis Martijn Van der Heide & Raymond J.G.M. Florax & Marc E. Loman, 1998. "Regional Economic growth and accessibility: The case of the Netherlands," ERSA conference papers ersa98p436, European Regional Science Association.
    16. Cuadrado-Roura, Juan R. & Mancha Navarro, Tomas & Garrido Yserte, Ruben, 1999. "Real versus virtual growth: An Analysis of regional Dynamics," ERSA conference papers ersa99pa195, European Regional Science Association.
    17. Nobuo Kobayashi, 2004. "Industrial Structure and Manufacturing Growth During Japan's Bubble and Post-Bubble Economies," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(4), pages 429-444.

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