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The Shift-Share Regression: An Application to Regional Employ-ment Development

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  • Uwe Blien

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  • Lutz Eigenhueller
  • Markus Promberger
  • Norbert Schanne

Abstract

This paper presents an outline of the so-called Shift-Share Regression and an application of this method to the analysis of employment development. The method used is not a deterministic decomposition such as the classical Shift-Share-Analysis, but a powerful, yet simple and flexible econometric tool to test theory-related hypotheses, which can be applied as a ?work-horse? in studies of many kinds. Classical deterministic Shift-Share-Analysis has often been criticised, since it does not permit a model-based analysis. The detection of causal effects is at least problematic and the inclusion of additional explanatory variables is possible only in special cases. A major problem is the nature of the method as a deterministic procedure which excludes significance tests. Shift-Share Regression is able to overcome all these critical points. In a basic version it was introduced by Patterson (1991) as a method for analysing and testing regional industrial developments. In contrary to the deterministic Shift-Share-Analysis employment development was examined in a linear model. In Patterson?s analysis the industrial sector structure was used as the sole determining factor alongside the location effects and the national trend. We extend this basic structure further: In our case, the effects of sectoral structures, establishment size, qualification structures and locational determinants on employment growth are studied. The regional units used are districts of Western Germany (?Landkreise? and ?kreisfreie Städte?), especially in the present context the districts of the federal State of Bavaria. The analysis is motivated by theoretical considerations of different sources. The most important one refers to theoretical analyses of structural change. According to a specific theorem, the employment effect of technological progress depends on the elasticity of product demand. If demand is inelastic the direct labour saving effect of technological progress is dominating and the effect is negative. Then it is profitable for a firm to reduce its labour force. If, however, demand is elastic a compensating effect dominates. In this case price decreases following higher productivity lead to an extension of product demand which (over-)com¬pensates the direct labour saving effect. Then, it is profitable for a firm to increase the size of its labour force. It can be assumed that in different industries of an economy different demand elasticities are dominating. Therefore, an empirical analysis of employment effects should focus on the industries of an economy. In the paper the sources of different regional employment development in Bavaria are presented, analysed by Shift-Share Regression.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by European Regional Science Association in its series ERSA conference papers with number ersa13p614.

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Date of creation: Nov 2013
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Handle: RePEc:wiw:wiwrsa:ersa13p614

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  1. Blien, Uwe & Wolf, Katja, 2002. "Regional development of employment in eastern Germany. An analysis with an econometric analogue to shift-share techniques," ERSA conference papers ersa02p263, European Regional Science Association.
  2. Blien, Uwe & Sanner, Helge, 2006. "Structural change and regional employment dynamics," IAB Discussion Paper 200606, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
  3. David H. Autor & Frank Levy & Richard J. Murnane, 2003. "The Skill Content Of Recent Technological Change: An Empirical Exploration," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 118(4), pages 1279-1333, November.
  4. Oliver Farhauer & Alexandra Kröll, 2012. "Diversified specialisation—going one step beyond regional economics’ specialisation-diversification concept," Jahrbuch für Regionalwissenschaft, Springer, vol. 32(1), pages 63-84, March.
  5. Edward L. Glaeser & Joshua D. Gottlieb, 2009. "The Wealth of Cities: Agglomeration Economies and Spatial Equilibrium in the United States," NBER Working Papers 14806, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Ulrich Zierahn, 2011. "The importance of spatial autocorrelation for regional employment growth in Germany," ERSA conference papers ersa10p205, European Regional Science Association.
  7. Blien, Uwe & Suedekum, Jens & Wolf, Katja, 2006. "Local employment growth in West Germany: A dynamic panel approach," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 445-458, August.
  8. Federico Cingano & Fabiano Schivardi, 2003. "Identifying the Sources of Local Productivity Growth," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 474, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  9. Simonetta Longhi & Peter Nijkamp & Iulia Traistaru, 2005. "Is Sectoral Diversification a Solution to Unemployment? Evidence from EU Regions," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(4), pages 591-610, November.
  10. Daron Acemoglu, 2000. "Technical Change, Inequality, and the Labor Market," NBER Working Papers 7800, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Shu-hen Chiang, 2012. "Shift-share analysis and international trade," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer, vol. 49(3), pages 571-588, December.
  12. Julia Kowalewski, 2011. "Specialization and employment development in Germany: An analysis at the regional level," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 90(4), pages 789-811, November.
  13. Jens Suedekum & Uwe Blien, 2007. "Stimulating Employment Growth with Higher Wages? A New Approach to Addressing an Old Controversy," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(3), pages 441-464, 08.
  14. Wolfgang Dauth, 2013. "Agglomeration and regional employment dynamics," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 92(2), pages 419-435, 06.
  15. D C Knudsen & R Barff, 1991. "Shift - share analysis as a linear model," Environment and Planning A, Pion Ltd, London, vol. 23(3), pages 421-431, March.
  16. Greene, William H & Seaks, Terry G, 1991. "The Restricted Least Squares Estimator: A Pedagogical Note," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 73(3), pages 563-67, August.
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