IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/iwhdps/iwh-11-12.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

A Federal Long-run Projection Model for Germany

Author

Listed:
  • Holtemöller, Oliver
  • Irrek, Maike
  • Schultz, Birgit

Abstract

Many economic decisions implicitly or explicitly rely on a projection of the medium- or long-term economic development of a country or region. In this paper, we provide a federal long-run projection model for Germany and the German states. The model features a top-down approach and, as major contribution, uses error correction models to estimate the regional economic development dependent on the national projection. For the medium- and long-term projection of economic activity, we apply a production function approach. We provide a detailed robustness analysis by systematically varying assumptions of the model. Additionally, we explore the effects of different demographic trends on economic development.

Suggested Citation

  • Holtemöller, Oliver & Irrek, Maike & Schultz, Birgit, 2012. "A Federal Long-run Projection Model for Germany," IWH Discussion Papers 11/2012, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:iwhdps:iwh-11-12
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/69609/1/73271026X.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Robert M. Solow, 1956. "A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 70(1), pages 65-94.
    2. Ludwig, Udo, 2007. "Mittel- und langfristige Wachstumsprojektionen für Ostdeutschland," Wirtschaft im Wandel, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), vol. 13(6), pages 210-218.
    3. T. W. Swan, 1956. "ECONOMIC GROWTH and CAPITAL ACCUMULATION," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 32(2), pages 334-361, November.
    4. repec:dau:papers:123456789/11049 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Buck, T W & Atkins, M H, 1976. "The Impact of British Regional Policies on Employment Growth," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 28(1), pages 118-132, March.
    6. Sabine Klinger & Katja Wolf, 2009. "Disentangling sector and status effects in German employment growth," The Service Industries Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(8), pages 1257-1278, September.
    7. Börsch-Supan, Axel & Weiss, Matthias, 2016. "Productivity and age: Evidence from work teams at the assembly line," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 7(C), pages 30-42.
    8. Barro, Robert J & Sala-i-Martin, Xavier, 1992. "Convergence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(2), pages 223-251, April.
      • Barro, R.J. & Sala-I-Martin, X., 1991. "Convergence," Papers 645, Yale - Economic Growth Center.
      • Barro, Robert J. & Sala-i-Martin, Xavier, 1992. "Convergence," Scholarly Articles 3451299, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    9. Irrek, Maike, 2010. "Humankapital im Ost-West-Vergleich: Leichtes Aufholen in den Neuen Bundesländern," Wirtschaft im Wandel, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), vol. 16(7), pages 337-344.
    10. Uwe Blien & Katja Wolf, 2002. "Regional development of employment in eastern Germany: an analysis with an econometric analogue to shift-share techniques," Papers in Regional Science, Springer;Regional Science Association International, vol. 81(3), pages 391-414.
    11. Julia Kowalewski, 2011. "Specialization and employment development in Germany: An analysis at the regional level," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 90(4), pages 789-811, November.
    12. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1988. "On the mechanics of economic development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-42, July.
    13. Willi Leibfritz & Werner Roeger, 2008. "The Effects of Aging on Labor Markets and Economic Growth," Springer Books, in: Ingrid Hamm & Helmut Seitz & Martin Werding (ed.), Demographic Change in Germany, pages 35-63, Springer.
    14. Hans-Friedrich Eckey & Reinhold Kosfeld & Nina Muraro, 2009. "Auswirkungen der Bevölkerungsentwicklung auf das wirtschaftliche Niveau der Regionen in Deutschland," MAGKS Papers on Economics 200901, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    15. repec:zbw:iwhwiw:7-10-3 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Robert J. Barro & Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 1991. "Convergence across States and Regions," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 22(1), pages 107-182.
    17. Schneider, Lutz, 2011. "Alterung und Arbeitsmarkt: Eine Untersuchung zum Einfluss des Alters von Beschäftigten auf Produktivität, Innovation und Mobilität," IWH-Sonderhefte 3/2011, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    18. van Deuverden, Kristina & Freye, Sabine, 2010. "Schuldenbremse: Bisherige Beschlüsse stellen Gelingen auf Länderebene infrage," Wirtschaft im Wandel, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), vol. 16(9), pages 438-447.
    19. Francesca D'Auria & Cécile Denis & Karel Havik & Kieran Mc Morrow & Christophe Planas & Rafal Raciborski & Werner Roger & Alessandro Rossi, 2010. "The production function methodology for calculating potential growth rates and output gaps," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 420, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    20. Edgar S. Dunn, 1960. "A Statistical And Analytical Technique For Regional Analysis," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(1), pages 97-112, January.
    21. Harry W. Richardson, 1978. "The State of Regional Economics: A Survey Article," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 3(1), pages 1-48, October.
    22. Reinhold Kosfeld & Hans-Friedrich Eckey & Christian Dreger, 2006. "Regional productivity and income convergence in the unified Germany, 1992-2000," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(7), pages 755-767.
    23. Scheufele, Rolf & Ludwig, Udo, 2009. "Der lange Weg der Konvergenz," Wirtschaft im Wandel, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), vol. 15(10), pages 400-407.
    24. Joaquim Oliveira Martins & Frédéric Gonand & Pablo Antolín & Christine de la Maisonneuve & Kwang-Yeol Yoo, 2005. "The Impact of Ageing on Demand, Factor Markets and Growth," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 420, OECD Publishing.
    25. Scheufele, Rolf, 2008. "Das makroökonometrische Modell des IWH: Eine angebotsseitige Betrachtung," IWH Discussion Papers 9/2008, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kenneth Button, 2011. "The Economist’s Perspective on Regional Endogenous Development," Chapters, in: Robert Stimson & Roger R. Stough & Peter Nijkamp (ed.), Endogenous Regional Development, chapter 2, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    2. Jens K. Perret, 2019. "Regional Convergence in the Russian Federation: Spatial and Temporal Dynamics," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 17(1), pages 11-39, March.
    3. Krasnopjorovs, Olegs, 2013. "Latvijas ekonomikas izaugsmi noteicošie faktori [Factors of Economic Growth in Latvia]," MPRA Paper 47550, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Matthew Higgins & Daniel Levy & Andrew T. Young, 2003. "Growth and Convergence across the US: Evidence from County-Level Data," Working Papers 2003-03, Bar-Ilan University, Department of Economics.
    5. Durlauf, Steven N. & Quah, Danny T., 1999. "The new empirics of economic growth," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 4, pages 235-308, Elsevier.
    6. Carolina Gómez Cuenca, 2006. "CONVERGENCIA REGIONAL EN COLOMBIA: un enfoque en los Agregados Monetarios y en el Sector Exportador," Ensayos Sobre Economía Regional (ESER) 2201, Banco de la República - Economía Regional.
    7. Cheong, Tsun Se & Wu, Yanrui, 2013. "Regional disparity, transitional dynamics and convergence in China," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 1-14.
    8. Tunali, Çiǧdem Börke & Yilanci, Veli, 2010. "Are per capita incomes of MENA countries converging or diverging?," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 389(21), pages 4855-4862.
    9. Fakhimi, MohammadAmin & Miremadi, Iman, 2022. "The impact of technological and social capabilities on innovation performance: a technological catch-up perspective," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    10. Ignacio Sacristán López-Bravo & Carlos San Juan Mesonada, 2022. "Effects of Policy Mix on European Regional Convergence," EconPol Working Paper 73, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    11. Eckey, Hans-Friedrich & Türck, Matthias, 2007. "Convergence of EU-Regions. A Literature Report," INVESTIGACIONES REGIONALES - Journal of REGIONAL RESEARCH, Asociación Española de Ciencia Regional, issue 10, pages 5-32.
    12. SOTO Raimundo & TORCHE Arístides, 2010. "Spatial Inequity after Reforms in Chile: Where Do We Stand?," EcoMod2003 330700137, EcoMod.
    13. Magrini, Stefano, 2004. "Regional (di)convergence," Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, in: J. V. Henderson & J. F. Thisse (ed.), Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 62, pages 2741-2796, Elsevier.
    14. Etsuro Shioji, 1992. "Regional growth in Japan," Economics Working Papers 138, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Oct 1995.
    15. Frank Neri, 1998. "The Economic Performance of the States and Territories of Australia: 1861–1992," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 74(225), pages 105-120, June.
    16. Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 1990. "Lecture Notes on Economic Growth(I): Introduction to the Literature and Neoclassical Models," NBER Working Papers 3563, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Emanuele Felice, 2012. "Regional convergence in Italy, 1891–2001: testing human and social capital," Cliometrica, Journal of Historical Economics and Econometric History, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC), vol. 6(3), pages 267-306, October.
    18. Luisa Corrado & Ron Martin & Melvyn Weeks, 2004. "Identifying And Interpreting Convergence Clusters Across Europe," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2004 145, Royal Economic Society.
    19. Ahmet Kýndap & Tayyar Dogan, 2019. "Regional Economic Convergence and Spatial Spillovers in Turkey," International Econometric Review (IER), Econometric Research Association, vol. 11(1), pages 1-23, April.
    20. Roberto Ezcurra, 2001. "Convergencia Y Cambio Estructural En La Unión Europea," Documentos de Trabajo - Lan Gaiak Departamento de Economía - Universidad Pública de Navarra 0111, Departamento de Economía - Universidad Pública de Navarra.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    regional long-run projection; convergence; demographic change; regionale Wachstumsprojektion; ökonomische Konvergenz; demographischer Wandel;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • O10 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:iwhdps:iwh-11-12. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/iwhhhde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.