IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/emffin/v18y2019i2_supplps183-s212.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

‘Indian Stock Market Volatility’: A Study of Inter-linkages and Spillover Effects

Author

Listed:
  • Suparna Nandy (Pal)
  • Arup Kr. Chattopadhyay

Abstract

The article attempts to examine interdependence between Indian stock market and other domestic financial markets, namely, foreign exchange market, bullion market, money market, and also Foreign Institutional Investor (FII) trade and foreign stock markets comprising one regional stock market represented by Nikkei of Japan and other stock market for the rest of the world represented by Standard & Poor’s (S&P) 500 of the USA. Attempts are also made to examine asymmetric volatility spillover, first, between the Indian stock market and other domestic financial markets and second, between the Indian stock market and global stock markets (represented by Nikkei and S&P 500) along with the foreign exchange market. To measure linear interdependence among multiple time series of financial markets multivariate Vector Autoregression (VAR) analysis, Granger causality test, impulse response function and variance decomposition techniques are used. For estima-ting the volatility spillover among the aforesaid markets Dynamic Conditional Correlation-Multivriate-Threshold Autoregressive Condi-tional Heteroscedastic (DCC-MV-TARCH) (1, 1) model is applied on daily data for a quite long period of time from 01 April 1996 to 31 March 2012. The results of multi­variate VAR analysis, Granger causality test, variance decomposition analysis and impulse response function estimation establish significant interdependence between domestic stock market and different other financial markets in India and abroad. The results of DCC-MV-TARCH (1, 1) model estimation further show signi- ficant asymmetric volatility spillover between the domestic stock market and the foreign exchange market and also from the domestic stock market to bullion market and changes in gross volume of FII trade. We also find (a) both way asymmetric volatility spillover between the domestic stock market and the Asian stock market and (b) its unidirectional movement from the world stock market to the domestic stock market. The results of the study may help market regulators in setting regulatory policies considering the inter-linkages and pattern of volatility spillovers across different financial markets. JEL Classification: G15, G17

Suggested Citation

  • Suparna Nandy (Pal) & Arup Kr. Chattopadhyay, 2019. "‘Indian Stock Market Volatility’: A Study of Inter-linkages and Spillover Effects," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 18(2_suppl), pages 183-212, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:emffin:v:18:y:2019:i:2_suppl:p:s183-s212
    DOI: 10.1177/0972652719846321
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0972652719846321
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1177/0972652719846321?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kuper, Gerard H. & Lestano, 2007. "Dynamic conditional correlation analysis of financial market interdependence: An application to Thailand and Indonesia," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 670-684, August.
    2. King, Mervyn A & Wadhwani, Sushil, 1990. "Transmission of Volatility between Stock Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(1), pages 5-33.
    3. Suk-Joong Kim & Fari Moshirian & Eliza Wu, 2018. "Dynamic Stock Market Integration Driven by the European Monetary Union: An Empirical Analysis," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Information Spillovers and Market Integration in International Finance Empirical Analyses, chapter 10, pages 305-368, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    4. Zhengde Xiong & Lijun Han, 2015. "Volatility spillover effect between financial markets: evidence since the reform of the RMB exchange rate mechanism," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 1(1), pages 1-12, December.
    5. Rudiger Dornbusch & Stanley Fischer, 1986. "The Open Economy: Implications for Monetary and Fiscal Policy," NBER Chapters, in: The American Business Cycle: Continuity and Change, pages 459-516, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Robert J. Gordon, 1986. "The American Business Cycle: Continuity and Change," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number gord86-1, March.
    7. Abdul Hakim & Michael McAleer, 2010. "Modelling the interactions across international stock, bond and foreign exchange markets," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(7), pages 825-850.
    8. Fleming, Jeff & Kirby, Chris & Ostdiek, Barbara, 1998. "Information and volatility linkages in the stock, bond, and money markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 111-137, July.
    9. Gregory Koutmos, 1999. "Asymmetric Price and Volatility Adjustments in Emerging Asian Stock Markets," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(1‐2), pages 83-101, January.
    10. Engle, Robert F & Sheppard, Kevin K, 2001. "Theoretical and Empirical Properties of Dynamic Conditional Correlation Multivariate GARCH," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt5s2218dp, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
    11. Yanan Li & David E. Giles, 2015. "Modelling Volatility Spillover Effects Between Developed Stock Markets and Asian Emerging Stock Markets," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(2), pages 155-177, March.
    12. Helen Higgs & Andrew Worthington, 2004. "Transmission of returns and volatility in art markets: a multivariate GARCH analysis," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(4), pages 217-222.
    13. Andrew Worthington & Helen Higgs, 2004. "Transmission of equity returns and volatility in Asian developed and emerging markets: a multivariate GARCH analysis," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(1), pages 71-80.
    14. Ng, Angela, 2000. "Volatility spillover effects from Japan and the US to the Pacific-Basin," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 207-233, April.
    15. Ping Wang & Tomoe Moore, 2008. "Stock Market Integration For The Transition Economies: Time‐Varying Conditional Correlation Approach," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 76(s1), pages 116-133, September.
    16. Christie, Andrew A., 1982. "The stochastic behavior of common stock variances : Value, leverage and interest rate effects," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 407-432, December.
    17. Gregory Koutmos, 1999. "Asymmetric Price and Volatility Adjustments in Emerging Asian Stock Markets," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(1-2), pages 83-101.
    18. Koutmos, Gregory & Booth, G Geoffrey, 1995. "Asymmetric volatility transmission in international stock markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(6), pages 747-762, December.
    19. Natarajana, Vinodh & Raja , Azariah & Priyac, Nagarajan, 2014. "Examining mean-volatility spillovers across national stock markets," Journal of Economics, Finance and Administrative Science, Universidad ESAN, vol. 19(36), pages 55-62.
    20. Sercu, Piet & Vanhulle, Cynthia, 1992. "Exchange rate volatility, international trade, and the value of exporting firms," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 155-182, February.
    21. Christine R Hekman, 1985. "A Financial Model of Foreign Exchange Exposure," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 16(2), pages 83-99, June.
    22. Karolyi, G Andrew, 1995. "A Multivariate GARCH Model of International Transmissions of Stock Returns and Volatility: The Case of the United States and Canada," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(1), pages 11-25, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Akhilesh Prasad & Priti Bakhshi, 2022. "Role of the Global Volatility Indices in Predicting the Volatility Index of the Indian Economy," Risks, MDPI, vol. 10(12), pages 1-18, November.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kundu, Srikanta & Sarkar, Nityananda, 2016. "Return and volatility interdependences in up and down markets across developed and emerging countries," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 297-311.
    2. Do, A. & Powell, R. & Yong, J. & Singh, A., 2020. "Time-varying asymmetric volatility spillover between global markets and China’s A, B and H-shares using EGARCH and DCC-EGARCH models," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    3. Giorgio Canarella & Stephen M. Miller & Stephen K. Pollard, 2008. "Dynamic Stock Market Interactions between the Canadian, Mexican, and the United States Markets: The NAFTA Experience," Working papers 2008-49, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
    4. Jin, Xiaoye, 2015. "Asymmetry in return and volatility spillover between China's interbank and exchange T-bond markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 340-353.
    5. Ngene, Geoffrey M. & Lee Kim, Yea & Wang, Jinghua, 2019. "Who poisons the pool? Time-varying asymmetric and nonlinear causal inference between low-risk and high-risk bonds markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 136-147.
    6. Withanage, Yeshan & Jayasinghe, Prabhath, 2017. "Volatility Spillovers between South Asian Stock Markets: Evidence from Sri Lanka, India and Pakistan," MPRA Paper 82782, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Nov 2017.
    7. Hsu-Ling Chang & Chi-Wei Su, 2010. "The relationship between the Vietnam stock market and its major trading partners - TECM with bivariate asymmetric GARCH model," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(13), pages 1279-1283.
    8. Dean, Warren G. & Faff, Robert W. & Loudon, Geoffrey F., 2010. "Asymmetry in return and volatility spillover between equity and bond markets in Australia," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 272-289, June.
    9. Bubák, Vít & Kocenda, Evzen & Zikes, Filip, 2011. "Volatility transmission in emerging European foreign exchange markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(11), pages 2829-2841, November.
    10. Usman M. Umer, Metin Coskun, Kasim Kiraci, 2018. "Time-varying Return and Volatility Spillover among EAGLEs Stock Markets: A Multivariate GARCH Analysis," Journal of Finance and Economics Research, Geist Science, Iqra University, Faculty of Business Administration, vol. 3(1), pages 23-42, March.
    11. Priyanka Singh & Brajesh Kumar & Pandey, Ajay, 2008. "Price and Volatility Spillovers across North American, European and Asian Stock Markets: With Special Focus on Indian Stock Market," IIMA Working Papers WP2008-12-04, Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad, Research and Publication Department.
    12. Baele, Lieven, 2005. "Volatility Spillover Effects in European Equity Markets," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 40(2), pages 373-401, June.
    13. Muhammad Niaz Khan & Suzanne G. M. Fifield & Nongnuch Tantisantiwong & David M. Power, 2022. "Changes in co-movement and risk transmission between South Asian stock markets amidst the development of regional co-operation," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 36(1), pages 87-117, March.
    14. Debalke, Negash Mulatu, 2023. "Examining volatility and spillover effects between markets for sovereign bonds of African countries and the world’s long term interest rate," MPRA Paper 117491, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Jeannine Bailliu, 2000. "Private Capital Flows, Financial Development, and Economic Growth in Developing Countries," Staff Working Papers 00-16, Bank of Canada.
    16. Roni Bhowmik & Wang Shouyang & Abbas Ghulam, 2018. "Return and Volatility Spillovers Effects: Study of Asian Emerging Stock Markets," Journal of Systems Science and Information, De Gruyter, vol. 6(2), pages 97-119, April.
    17. Khamis Hamed Al‐Yahyaee & Syed Jawad Hussain Shahzad & Walid Mensi & Seong‐Min Yoon, 2021. "Is there a systemic risk between Sharia, Sukuk, and GCC stock markets? A ΔCoVaR risk metric‐based copula approach," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(2), pages 2904-2926, April.
    18. Yanan Li & David E. Giles, 2015. "Modelling Volatility Spillover Effects Between Developed Stock Markets and Asian Emerging Stock Markets," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(2), pages 155-177, March.
    19. Manuel A. Hernandez & Raul Ibarra & Danilo R. Trupkin, 2014. "How far do shocks move across borders? Examining volatility transmission in major agricultural futures markets," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 41(2), pages 301-325.
    20. Viviana Fernandez, 2005. "Time-Scale Decomposition of Price Transmission in International Markets," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(4), pages 57-90, August.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Volatility spillover; asymmetric volatility spillover; VAR; Granger causality; impulse response function; variance decomposition; DCC-MV-TARCH (1; 1);
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:emffin:v:18:y:2019:i:2_suppl:p:s183-s212. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.ifmr.ac.in .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.