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Responses of Real Output in Serbia to the Financial and Global Economic Conditions

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  • Hsing, Yu

    ()
    (College of Business, Southeastern Louisiana University, Hammond, LA 70402, USA.)

  • Hsieh, Wen-jen

    (Department of Economics, College of Social Sciences, National Cheng Kung University, No.1, University Road, Tainan City, Taiwan)

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    Abstract

    Applying and extending Taylor (1993, 1999) and Romer (2000, 2006), this paper examines output fluctuations for Serbia based on a simultaneous equation model consisting of the open-economy IS function, the monetary policy function, and uncovered interest parity. The GARCH(1,0) model is employed because the residual variance is affected by the past variance. Real GDP is positively affected by the real stock price and real government deficit and negatively influenced by expected real depreciation of the dinar, the world real interest rate, and the inflation rate. There are significant seasonal effects. Therefore, a healthy stock market, a stronger dinar, a lower world real interest rate, a lower inflation rate, and an active fiscal policy will play important roles in the recovery of the Serbian economy.

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    File URL: http://www.ipe.ro/rjef/rjef3_10/rjef3_10_6.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Institute for Economic Forecasting in its journal Romanian Journal for Economic Forecasting.

    Volume (Year): (2010)
    Issue (Month): 3 (September)
    Pages: 107-114

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    Handle: RePEc:rjr:romjef:v::y:2010:i:3:p:107-114

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    Keywords: monetary policy function; uncovered interest parity; exchange rate; world interest rate; inflation rate; government deficit;

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    References

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    1. Yu Hsing, 2005. "Impacts of macroeconomic policies on the Latvian output and policy implications," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(8), pages 467-471.
    2. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
    3. Giorgio Dominese, 2006. "How To Prepare the EU Integration: Banking System, Monetary Policy, and Exchange Rate in Macedonia," Transition Studies Review, Springer, vol. 13(2), pages 378-392, 07.
    4. David Romer, 2000. "Keynesian Macroeconomics without the LM Curve," NBER Working Papers 7461, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Rostowski, Jacek, 1998. "Macroeconomic Instability in Post-Communist Countries," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198290483, October.
    6. Kosta Josifidis & Jean-Pierre Allegret & Emilija Beker Pucar, 2009. "Monetary and Exchange Rate Regimes Changes: The Cases of Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia and Republic of Serbia," Post-Print halshs-00404729, HAL.
    7. Nikola Fabris, 2006. "Inflation Targeting With Special Review on Appliction in Serbia," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 53(4), pages 389-405, December.
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    Cited by:
    1. Milan Nedeljkovic & Branko Urosevic, 2011. "Determinants of the Dinar-Euro Nominal Exchange Rate," Working papers 18, National Bank of Serbia.
    2. Nedeljković, Milan & Urošević, Branko, 2012. "Determinants of the Dinar-Euro Nominal Exchange Rate," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 121-141, September.

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