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Output Fluctuations in Nigeria

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  • OGUN, Oluremi

    (University of Ibadan, Ibadan, Nigeria)

Abstract

This study investigates the macroeconomic sources of output fluctuations in Nigeria. The study was conducted within the context of stabilization policies. The analysis covered the period, 1960 to 2013. Typical of the macroeconomic sources investigated were monetary, fiscal, trade and external sector allied issues as well as strictly exogenous developments. Two analytical approaches were applied to detrended data series in the study. The outcome of the exercise suggested policy directions with narrow money and foreign real interest rate pinpointed as the principal causes of output fluctuations. An optimal response of policy to cycles originating outside the economy was also outlined. Fluttuazioni della produzione in Nigeria Questo studio analizza le cause macroeconomiche delle fluttuazioni della produzione in Nigeria. L’analisi è condotta nel contesto delle politiche di stabilizzazione e copre il periodo 1960-2013. Le principali cause macroeconomiche prese in considerazione sono monetarie, fiscali, commerciali e le problematiche connesse a questi settori, in aggiunta a sviluppi strettamente esogeni. Due approcci analitici sono applicati alle serie detrendizzate di dati. Il risultato di questa simulazione suggerisce l’adozione di politiche basate su un aggregato monetario ristretto ed evidenzia come i tassi di interesse reali stranieri sono le principali cause delle fluttuazioni della produzione. Viene inoltre osservata una reazione ottimale ai cicli che si creano al di fuori del sistema economico.

Suggested Citation

  • OGUN, Oluremi, 2018. "Output Fluctuations in Nigeria," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 71(4), pages 465-502.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:ecoint:0836
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Macroeconomic Theory; Business Cycles;

    JEL classification:

    • E00 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - General
    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

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