Reassessing the Dynamic Links between Trade and Growth: New Empirical Evidence from India - Un riesame delle relazioni tra commercio estero e crescita economica:nuova evidenza empirica per l’India
AbstractThis paper reassesses the dynamic links between trade and growth in India during the post-independence period. The main result is a short-run bi-directional relationship between exports and output growth. This finding is supported both by standard Granger causality tests, and by an alternative estimator which is robust to the integration and cointegration properties of the VAR process. Moreover, I document a long-run unidirectional causal effect from exports to imports growth. I discuss the policy implications of this evidence and conclude that a neutral policy regime, not discriminating between export and strategic domestic sectors, represents a suitable development strategy for India. - L’articolo esamina le relazioni di causalità tra commercio estero e crescita in India nel periodo successivo alla sua indipendenza. Il risultato principale è l’esistenza di una relazione bidirezionale di breve periodo tra esportazioni e crescita economica. Questo risultato è supportato sia dai tradizionali test di causalità di Granger, che da uno stimatore alternativo indipendente dalle proprietà di integrazione e cointegrazione delle serie storiche utilizzate. Viene inoltre evidenziata l’esistenza di una relazione causale di lungo periodo dalla crescita delle esportazioni a quella delle importazioni. La parte finale del lavoro discute le implicazioni di politica economica di questi risultati e conclude che un regime neutrale, che non discrimina tra settori orientati alle esportazioni e settori orientati al mercato interno, rappresenta la strategia di sviluppo più appropriata per l’India.
Download InfoTo our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
1. Check below under "Related research" whether another version of this item is available online.
2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Camera di Commercio di Genova in its journal Economia Internazionale / International Economics.
Volume (Year): 63 (2010)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Contact details of provider:
Postal: Via Garibaldi 4, 16124 Genova, Italy
Phone: +39 010 27041
Fax: +39 010 2704222
Web page: http://www.ge.camcom.it/IT/Tool/Modulistica
More information through EDIRC
Economic Growth; Trade; Granger Causality Tests; India;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models
- F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
- F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Storm, Servaas, 1997. "Domestic constraints on export-led growth: a case-study of India," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 83-119, February.
- Toda, Hiro Y., 1995. "Finite Sample Performance of Likelihood Ratio Tests for Cointegrating Ranks in Vector Autoregressions," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(05), pages 1015-1032, October.
- Toda, Hiro Y. & Yamamoto, Taku, 1995. "Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1-2), pages 225-250.
- Findlay, Ronald, 1984. "Growth and development in trade models," Handbook of International Economics, in: R. W. Jones & P. B. Kenen (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 4, pages 185-236 Elsevier.
- Peter C.B. Phillips & Sam Ouliaris, 1987.
"Asymptotic Properties of Residual Based Tests for Cointegration,"
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
847R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Jul 1988.
- Phillips, Peter C B & Ouliaris, S, 1990. "Asymptotic Properties of Residual Based Tests for Cointegration," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 165-93, January.
- Arslan Razmi & Robert Blecker, 2008.
"Developing Country Exports of Manufactures: Moving Up the Ladder to Escape the Fallacy of Composition?,"
Journal of Development Studies,
Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(1), pages 21-48.
- Arslan Razmi & Robert A. Blecker, 2006. "Developing Country Exports of Manufactures: Moving Up the Ladder to Escape the Fallacy of Composition?," Working Papers 2006-06, American University, Department of Economics.
- Arslan Razmi & Robert Blecker, 2005. "Developing Country Exports of Manufactures: Moving Up the Ladder to Escape the Fallacy of Composition?," UMASS Amherst Economics Working Papers 2005-02, University of Massachusetts Amherst, Department of Economics, revised May 2006.
- Judith A. Giles & Sadaf Mirza, 1999. "Some Pretesting Issues on Testing for Granger Noncausality," Econometrics Working Papers 9914, Department of Economics, University of Victoria.
- Jim Love & Ramesh Chandra, 2005. "Testing export-led growth in South Asia," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 32(2), pages 132-145, May.
- Muscatelli, V. A. & Stevenson, A. A. & Montagna, C., 1994. "Intra-NIE competition in exports of manufactures," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(1-2), pages 29-47, August.
- Abhijit Sharma & Theodore Panagiotidis, 2005. "An Analysis of Exports and Growth in India: Cointegration and Causality Evidence (1971-2001)," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(2), pages 232-248, 05.
- Hakkio, Craig S. & Rush, Mark, 1991.
"Cointegration: how short is the long run?,"
Journal of International Money and Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 571-581, December.
- Lucas, Robert E. B., 1989. "Liberalization of Indian trade and industrial licensing : A disaggregated econometric model with simulations," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 141-175, July.
- Mazumdar, Joy, 2001. "Imported machinery and growth in LDCs," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(1), pages 209-224, June.
- Toda, Hiro Y. & Phillips, Peter C. B., 1993. "The spurious effect of unit roots on vector autoregressions : An analytical study," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 59(3), pages 229-255, October.
- Jim Love & Ramesh Chandra, 2004. "Testing Export-Led Growth in India, Pakistan and Sri Lanka Using a Multivariate Framework," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 72(4), pages 483-496, 07.
- Asafu-Adjaye, John & Chakraborty, Debasish, 1999. "Export-Led Growth and Import Compression: Further Time Series Evidence from LDCs," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(2), pages 164-75, June.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Angela Procopio).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.