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Country Risk Analysis: A Survey of the Quantitative Methods

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  • Nath, Hiranya K.

    ()
    (Sam Houston University)

Abstract

With globalization and financial integration, there has been rapid growth of international lending and foreign direct investment (FDI). In view of this emerging trend, country risk analysis has become extremely important for the international creditors and investors. This paper briefly discusses the concepts and definitions, and presents a survey of the quantitative methods that are used to address various issues related to country risk. It also gives a summary review of selected empirical studies that use these techniques. While these studies display a distinct chronological pattern of gradual improvements in terms of technique and analytical competence none of them is adequate in terms of its scope and coverage. This paper also notes that in view of changing global economic and financial environment, greater availability of quantitative data, and enhanced computing capacity, the researchers should focus on the possibility of applying better techniques to more extensive models of country risk analysis.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Camera di Commercio di Genova in its journal Economia Internazionale / International Economics.

Volume (Year): 62 (2009)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 69-94

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Handle: RePEc:ris:ecoint:0014

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Keywords: Country Risk Analysis; International Lending; Foreign Direct Investment;

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References

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  1. Pierre Dhonte, 1975. "Describing External Debt Situations: A Roll-over Approach (La description de l'endettement extérieur: l'approche du refinancement) (La refinanciación y su utilidad para la descripción de situ," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 22(1), pages 159-186, March.
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  7. Frank, Charles Jr. & Cline, William R., 1971. "Measurement of debt servicing capacity: An application of discriminant analysis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 1(3), pages 327-344, August.
  8. Suk Hun Lee, 1993. "Relative Importance of Political Instability and Economic Variables on Perceived Country Creditworthiness," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 24(4), pages 801-812, December.
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  10. Jakob De Haan & Clemens Siermann & Erna Van Lubek, 1997. "Political instability and country risk: new evidence," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(11), pages 703-707.
  11. Suhejla Hoti & Michael McAleer, 2004. "An Empirical Assessment of Country Risk Ratings and Associated Models," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(4), pages 539-588, 09.
  12. John Cooper, 1999. "Artificial neural networks versus multivariate statistics: An application from economics," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(8), pages 909-921.
  13. Edwards, Sebastian, 1984. "LDC Foreign Borrowing and Default Risk: An Empirical Investigation, 1976-80," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(4), pages 726-34, September.
  14. Oral, Muhittin & Kettani, Ossama & Cosset, Jean-Claude & Daouas, Mohamed, 1992. "An estimation model for country risk rating," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 583-593, December.
  15. Oetzel, Jennifer M. & Bettis, Richard A. & Zenner, Marc, 2001. "Country risk measures: how risky are they?," Journal of World Business, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 128-145, July.
  16. Brewer, Thomas L & Rivoli, Pietra, 1990. "Politics and Perceived Country Creditworthiness in International Banking," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 22(3), pages 357-69, August.
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Cited by:
  1. Chopra, Parvesh K. & Kanji, Gopal K., 2010. "On Measuring Country Risk: A new System Modelling Approach - La misura del rischio paese: un nuovo approccio system modelling," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio di Genova, vol. 63(4), pages 479-515.

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