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A contemporary investigation of causality between the primary government budget deficit and the ex ante real long term interest rate in the US

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  • Richard J. Cebula

    ()
    (Armstrong Atlantic State University, Savannah (USA))

Abstract

Using error-correction model (ECM) estimation, this study empirically examines, for theUS, the causality relationship between the federal government budget deficitand the ex ante real long term interest rate. The system includes personal federal income tax rates, the M2 money supply, the unemployment rate, an ex ante realshort term interest rate and net international capital inflows. To clarify thedeficit/interest rate relationship, the budget deficit is measured by the primarydeficit, which excludes net interest payments by the Treasury. The ECM estimates in this study provide results that suggest a bi-directional relationship between theprimary budget deficit and the ex ante real long term interest rate yield.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Banca Nazionale del Lavoro in its journal BNL Quarterly Review.

Volume (Year): 55 (2002)
Issue (Month): 223 ()
Pages: 417-435

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Handle: RePEc:psl:bnlaqr:2002:44

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Keywords: Budget; Deficit; Interest Rates; Interest; Money Supply; Money; Supply; Tax;

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  1. R.J. Cebula, 1997. "Government deficit, ex post real long-term interest rates and causality," BNL Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 50(202), pages 325-336.
  2. Ali F. Darrat, 2000. "Do Structural Federal Budget Deficits Impact Commercial Bank Interest Rates? A Comment," Public Finance Review, , vol. 28(3), pages 187-194, May.
  3. Cukierman, Alex & Meltzer, Allan H, 1989. "A Political Theory of Government Debt and Deficits in a Neo-Ricardian Framework," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 713-32, September.
  4. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
  5. Hoelscher, Gregory, 1986. "New Evidence on Deficits and Interest Rates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 18(1), pages 1-17, February.
  6. P.A.V.B. Swamy & Bharat R. Kolluri & Rao N. Singamesetti, 1988. "What do regressions of interest rates on deficits imply?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 3, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  7. Cebula, Richard J & Belton, Willie J, 1993. "Government Budget Deficits and Interest Rates in the United States: Evidence for Closed and Open Systems Put into Perspective, 1955-1989," Public Finance = Finances publiques, , vol. 48(2), pages 188-209.
  8. James R. Barth & George Iden & Frank S. Russek, 1984. "Do Federal Deficits Really Matter?," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 3(1), pages 79-95, 09.
  9. Mascaro, Angelo & Meltzer, Allan H., 1983. "Long- and short-term interest rates in a risky world," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 485-518, November.
  10. Evans, Paul, 1987. "Interest Rates and Expected Future Budget Deficits in the United States," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(1), pages 34-58, February.
  11. Vito Tanzi, 1985. "Fiscal Deficits and Interest Rates in the United States: An Empirical Analysis, 1960-84 (Déficits budgétaires et taux d'intérêt aux Etats-Unis: analyse empirique, 1960-84) (El déficit f," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 32(4), pages 551-576, December.
  12. Keith M. Carlson & Roger W. Spencer, 1975. "Crowding out and its critics," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Dec, pages 2-17.
  13. Edgar L. Feige, 2005. "The Underground Economy And The Currency Enigma," Macroeconomics 0502004, EconWPA.
  14. Cebula, Richard, 1996. "An Empirical Analysis of the Impact of Government Tax and Auditing Policies on the Size of the Underground Economy: The Case of the United States, 1973-94," MPRA Paper 49810, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  15. Feldstein, Martin S & Eckstein, Otto, 1970. "The Fundamental Determinants of the Interest Rate," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 52(4), pages 363-75, November.
  16. Richard J. Cebula, 2000. "The Impact of Structural Budget Deficits on Commercial Bank Interest Rates: Reply," Public Finance Review, , vol. 28(3), pages 195-198, May.
  17. Cebula, Richard J. & Rhodd, Rupert G., 1993. "A note on budget deficits, debt service payments, and interest rates," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 439-445.
  18. Evans, Paul, 1985. "Do Large Deficits Produce High Interest Rates?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(1), pages 68-87, March.
  19. McMillin, W. Douglas, 1986. "Federal deficits and short-term interest rates," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 403-422.
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